TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Dota2 · resolved market

Dota 2: Virtus.pro vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Team Liquidof Virtus.pro, Team Liquid
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$181,115
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$208,308

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $181,115 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 191 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Dota2
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x87da…53d1backed Team Liquid63c12,899$8,099 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,80096557.4%554 W · 411 L+49.5wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+7.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x8479…40dfbacked Virtus.pro34c10,000$3,400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,399.9910751.4%55 W · 52 L+4.2wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+1.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe16d…5e30backed Virtus.pro27c9,995$2,717 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,717.251,21057.1%691 W · 519 L+44.5wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+4.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Team Liquid58c8,888$5,171 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,716.42,01244.2%889 W · 1,123 L+36.6wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-7.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd06c…cdafbacked Team Liquid50c7,916$3,938 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,978.311,18643.2%512 W · 674 L+42.2wins+0.04per pick40cpaid+1.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x05a7…42e6backed Virtus.pro50c6,870$3,405 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,404.9941056.8%233 W · 177 L+5.2wins+0.01per pick56cpaid+1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5a05…12a2backed Virtus.pro23c6,397$1,447 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,447.3647650.8%242 W · 234 L+16.6wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-1.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x913c…39b3backed Virtus.pro49c6,342$3,079 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,078.5371454.5%389 W · 325 L+55.6wins+0.08per pick47cpaid+7.9%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x3471…f17ebacked Team Liquid66c5,635$3,696 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,939.41,15547.8%552 W · 603 L+29.5wins+0.03per pick45cpaid-8.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x03f8…d85abacked Virtus.pro37c5,012$1,850 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,8504951%25 W · 24 L+2.0wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+3.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2d39…6053backed Team Liquid62c5,002$3,111 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,891.081,03647.2%489 W · 547 L+15.3wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-9.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked Virtus.pro39c4,458$1,761 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,760.831,52137.9%576 W · 945 L-57.8wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-26.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xec98…afcdbacked Team Liquid64c3,410$2,174 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,236.51,82145%820 W · 1,001 L+33.5wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-10.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd3b0…329ebacked Virtus.pro35c3,250$1,127 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,127.2580256%449 W · 353 L+22.9wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+6.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0e62…f6ffbacked Virtus.pro48c3,250$1,560 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,559.9910646.2%49 W · 57 L-0.5wins0.00per pick47cpaid-4.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x60d0…e05fbacked Team Liquid71c3,000$2,130 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$87041242.2%174 W · 238 L-0.4wins0.00per pick42cpaid-2.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3601…44fbbacked Team Liquid52c2,902$1,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,401.9216954.4%92 W · 77 L+5.7wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8d85…c436backed Virtus.pro34c2,898$988 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$988.1850832.9%167 W · 341 L-14.8wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-26.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7dfd…8d75backed Virtus.pro35c2,818$984 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$984.0924251.7%125 W · 117 L+21.0wins+0.09per pick43cpaid+15.2%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x0e1b…ecafbacked Team Liquid71c2,691$1,904 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$787.5396645.1%436 W · 530 L-7.7wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-13.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbff7…92fbbacked Team Liquid54c2,597$1,393 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,204.0727143.5%118 W · 153 L-10.1wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-12.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x93bd…bbc5backed Virtus.pro37c2,422$895 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$894.9153764.4%346 W · 191 L+26.5wins+0.05per pick60cpaid+2.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x500f…94bfbacked Virtus.pro59c2,055$1,206 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,206.2813558.5%79 W · 56 L+4.3wins+0.03per pick55cpaid+4.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x974f…cd80backed Virtus.pro33c2,044$683 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$683.3955147.5%262 W · 289 L+22.3wins+0.04per pick43cpaid+4.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xab04…a00abacked Virtus.pro34c1,795$611 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$610.6237945.9%174 W · 205 L+3.3wins+0.01per pick45cpaid+3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x180c…cd04backed Virtus.pro32c1,568$505 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$505.243738.4%168 W · 269 L-1.8wins0.00per pick39cpaid-8.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1733…dc80backed Virtus.pro21c1,536$330 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3302142.9%9 W · 12 L-0.7wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-22.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x51db…f9b3backed Team Liquid65c1,356$882 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$473.752,82843.6%1,234 W · 1,594 L-39.5wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-20.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xd161…4cc1backed Team Liquid59c1,320$777 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$542.980443.9%353 W · 451 L-1.7wins0.00per pick44cpaid-11%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x505f…645ebacked Virtus.pro46c1,150$527 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$527.211,28045%576 W · 704 L-12.7wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-15%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3763…345fbacked Virtus.pro35c1,131$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40042145.4%191 W · 230 L-11.3wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-6.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x42b7…77dcbacked Virtus.pro50c1,108$556 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$555.9399844.4%443 W · 555 L+21.0wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-0.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x904e…0becbacked Team Liquid68c1,064$721 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$342.941,45848.5%707 W · 751 L+27.0wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-14.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd8b5…54c4backed Team Liquid55c1,006$550 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$456.4129240.8%119 W · 173 L+0.7wins0.00per pick41cpaid-6.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc646…e394backed Team Liquid79c999.99$790 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21037655.1%207 W · 169 L+4.8wins+0.01per pick54cpaid+1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x16ce…eba1backed Virtus.pro3c950$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$276132.1%13 W · 600 L-23.4wins-0.04per pick6cpaid-76.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4ec3…34a7backed Team Liquid64c945.04$609 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$336.0356548%271 W · 294 L-6.5wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-12.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8a38…fee0backed Team Liquid65c916.3$596 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$320.7160349.9%301 W · 302 L-3.1wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-4.4%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x00f8…2c23backed Virtus.pro34c882.35$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30030534.4%105 W · 200 L-14.3wins-0.05per pick39cpaid-15.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xfdc0…4b85backed Virtus.pro33c881.66$292 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$291.51,57743.9%692 W · 885 L-10.4wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-8.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x80ba…2e78backed Virtus.pro30c845.99$255 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$254.7288539.7%351 W · 534 L+7.7wins+0.01per pick39cpaid+3.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc50c…fe5dbacked Virtus.pro48c810.42$388 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3884245.2%19 W · 23 L-1.0wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-14.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x36d9…c3cabacked Virtus.pro23c800.29$184 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$184.144149.4%218 W · 223 L+12.3wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-3.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3741…517ebacked Team Liquid41c759.99$312 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$448.437047%174 W · 196 L-2.6wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-4.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2761…4d95backed Team Liquid42c757.47$318 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$439.3344645.7%204 W · 242 L+0.2wins0.00per pick46cpaid-1.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Team Liquid66c685.58$452 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$233.11,90147.6%905 W · 996 L+4.6wins0.00per pick47cpaid-6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbca8…cf14backed Team Liquid63c682$430 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$252.3425248.8%123 W · 129 L-11.2wins-0.04per pick53cpaid-10.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x15e4…7ba4backed Virtus.pro55c670.91$369 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3693938.5%15 W · 24 L-1.8wins-0.05per pick43cpaid-12.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2e3c…08babacked Team Liquid67c624.29$419 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$205.511,70241.2%701 W · 1,001 L-44.0wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-26.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x04f6…f24abacked Virtus.pro39c607$235 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$234.7950347.1%237 W · 266 L+14.9wins+0.03per pick44cpaid-2.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4713…4d21backed Team Liquid56c583$325 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$258.191,12036.1%404 W · 716 L-39.4wins-0.04per pick40cpaid-31.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x8935…7daabacked Team Liquid66c550$362 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$188.271,15447.7%550 W · 604 L-12.7wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-12.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9a8e…9408backed Virtus.pro43c544.46$235 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$234.6996245.5%438 W · 524 L+22.1wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-2.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9852…111abacked Virtus.pro28c540$151 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$151.220452.5%107 W · 97 L-1.7wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-4.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1365…c82abacked Virtus.pro34c533.98$184 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$184.0161456%344 W · 270 L+13.5wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+4.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe84a…702dbacked Team Liquid66c531.82$351 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$180.8215949.7%79 W · 80 L-4.0wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-8.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa623…a4febacked Team Liquid66c530$350 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$180.250749.7%252 W · 255 L+15.3wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-0.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xadfb…c2efbacked Team Liquid66c516.98$340 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$177.2917146.2%79 W · 92 L-8.7wins-0.05per pick51cpaid-12.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x45d5…a7a0backed Team Liquid66c514.66$340 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$174.9910048%48 W · 52 L-1.5wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-7.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8aa6…83f9backed Virtus.pro35c510.33$177 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$177.1820145.3%91 W · 110 L-4.9wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-14%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x209e…8bb4backed Virtus.pro33c509.98$168 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$168.2980544.6%359 W · 446 L-25.8wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-8.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1c8f…4d12backed Virtus.pro32c477.8$151 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$150.7135062.6%219 W · 131 L+44.4wins+0.13per pick50cpaid+26.9%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0x6277…5a3fbacked Virtus.pro34c450.62$154 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$153.626843.7%117 W · 151 L-0.2wins0.00per pick44cpaid-6.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb6ce…7a7dbacked Team Liquid65c432$280 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$151.9989749.6%445 W · 452 L+22.4wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-8.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x84ad…bfb7backed Team Liquid65c421.54$274 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$147.1645750.8%232 W · 225 L+14.3wins+0.03per pick48cpaid-5.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfe3f…0fcfbacked Team Liquid69c381$263 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$118.1186659.6%516 W · 350 L-8.6wins-0.01per pick61cpaid-2.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf7a2…c0c5backed Team Liquid80c375.39$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$75.393158.1%18 W · 13 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick59cpaid-6.4%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x765f…1508backed Team Liquid67c372.01$249 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$122.7622363.2%141 W · 82 L+5.7wins+0.03per pick61cpaid+3.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xc2e5…b3a5backed Virtus.pro40c368$147 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$146.8413544.4%60 W · 75 L-4.3wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-19.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf3ef…ca6bbacked Team Liquid64c361$231 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$129.741,06657%608 W · 458 L+52.7wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+1.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xbb0f…b652backed Virtus.pro29c350$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101.9122552.4%118 W · 107 L+26.0wins+0.12per pick41cpaid+25.2%equal weight62+0.10 edge/pick
0x5b10…9659backed Team Liquid63c342.27$216 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$126.6449455.1%272 W · 222 L+6.0wins+0.01per pick54cpaid+3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x96ef…cca4backed Team Liquid68c328.9$224 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$104.9416242.6%69 W · 93 L-6.2wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-20.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xa9f5…937fbacked Team Liquid63c321$202 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$119.0289938%342 W · 557 L-45.9wins-0.05per pick43cpaid-30%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x3c41…6275backed Virtus.pro40c300$119 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$118.58448.8%41 W · 43 L+5.3wins+0.06per pick43cpaid+11.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xd035…f165backed Team Liquid70c300$209 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$90.7510735.5%38 W · 69 L-2.9wins-0.03per pick38cpaid-28.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe9b5…f95bbacked Team Liquid66c300$198 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1024542.2%19 W · 26 L-2.4wins-0.05per pick47cpaid-23.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x0c99…0c88backed Team Liquid66c296$195 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$101.021,16447.2%549 W · 615 L-29.1wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-9.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x5a89…3e2abacked Virtus.pro33c292.27$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9730041.3%124 W · 176 L-10.2wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-9.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe2fe…695dbacked Virtus.pro35c285.71$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10017349.1%85 W · 88 L+7.1wins+0.04per pick45cpaid+5.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x968a…3841backed Team Liquid72c278.61$201 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$78.0120939.2%82 W · 127 L-10.8wins-0.05per pick44cpaid-25.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x812a…73edbacked Virtus.pro22c277.68$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.9937223.1%86 W · 286 L-38.2wins-0.10per pick33cpaid-38.8%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x8dd4…7401backed Virtus.pro26c276.27$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.2335430.5%108 W · 246 L-27.2wins-0.08per pick38cpaid-41.4%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x597d…b97dbacked Virtus.pro37c261.79$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.5820738.6%80 W · 127 L-4.1wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-13.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xba50…ad0bbacked Team Liquid64c250$160 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9039550.1%198 W · 197 L-2.1wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-4.9%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x82dc…5700backed Team Liquid63c240.77$152 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$88.9368649.7%341 W · 345 L+9.6wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-10.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xff34…694bbacked Virtus.pro45c235.43$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$104.8677256.5%436 W · 336 L+30.3wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+0.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x57d5…0bbdbacked Virtus.pro39c230.61$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90.0353139.5%210 W · 321 L-37.2wins-0.07per pick47cpaid-29.6%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xf34b…bcb3backed Virtus.pro36c230.55$83 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8358356.8%331 W · 252 L+28.7wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+9.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x3a72…0a38backed Virtus.pro37c228$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$85.1320448%98 W · 106 L+12.7wins+0.06per pick42cpaid+14.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xfd97…a2c9backed Virtus.pro43c222$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$95.461553.3%8 W · 7 L+0.9wins+0.06per pick48cpaid+5.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc63b…6e4ebacked Virtus.pro39c216$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$84.435032.3%113 W · 237 L-7.1wins-0.02per pick34cpaid-22%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdf7c…4c16backed Team Liquid58c208.53$121 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$87.5812136.4%44 W · 77 L-8.7wins-0.07per pick44cpaid-30.7%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x473f…9892backed Team Liquid72c207.54$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.5450053%265 W · 235 L+14.9wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+4.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc74d…9690backed Virtus.pro40c200$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7918248.9%89 W · 93 L+15.0wins+0.08per pick41cpaid+11.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x9aaf…8298backed Virtus.pro37c200$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7450247.6%239 W · 263 L+31.6wins+0.06per pick41cpaid+10.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x1e42…f22abacked Virtus.pro40c200$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$798846.6%41 W · 47 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick45cpaid0%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xce5f…ab17backed Virtus.pro36c200$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7116250%81 W · 81 L+9.6wins+0.06per pick44cpaid+9.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x38c5…0f5cbacked Virtus.pro35c200$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7058250.5%294 W · 288 L+10.2wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+2.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3482…fa0ebacked Team Liquid52c200$104 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$965468.5%37 W · 17 L+6.7wins+0.12per pick56cpaid+22.7%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.