Europa Conference League · resolved market
Will Fenerbahce vs. Nice end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x69ac41a646345deac38853c3ed3db98ef8f4dce3ed6d93105ff4c30227a475c2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Europa Conference Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $21,769
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $22,270
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,769 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Europa Conference League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8fbc…52dabacked Yes | 24c | 5,830$1,399 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,399.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3635…e4cfbacked No | 76c | 5,265$4,001 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,263.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e5c…d8e6backed Yes | 25c | 5,000$1,250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,250 | 279 | 39.8%111 W · 168 L | -15.0wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -19%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0b47…2f60backed Yes | 24c | 4,170$1,001 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7382…dafcbacked No | 76c | 3,420$2,599 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$820.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc5b…5b15backed No | 75c | 3,000$2,250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$750 | 57 | 63.2%36 W · 21 L | +2.2wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf519…906bbacked No | 76c | 2,000$1,520 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$480 | 52 | 69.2%36 W · 16 L | +3.5wins | +0.07per pick | 62cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 22c | 1,961$439 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$438.61 | 3,726 | 47%1,750 W · 1,976 L | +20.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea64…f2a2backed No | 75c | 1,747$1,310 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$436.65 | 37 | 48.6%18 W · 19 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5bdb…8eb1backed No | 76c | 1,315$999 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$315.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4231…f63ebacked No | 75c | 1,277$958 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$319.2 | 151 | 51%77 W · 74 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb72b…f4e0backed Yes | 25c | 500$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4cb5…8b87backed Yes | 25c | 320$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | +61.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5d03…369abacked No | 75c | 300$225 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75 | 32 | 59.4%19 W · 13 L | +3.2wins | +0.10per pick | 49cpaid | +37.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2619…9f4ebacked No | 75c | 300$225 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75 | 49 | 59.2%29 W · 20 L | +5.6wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +40.2%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x29b4…58c9backed Yes | 25c | 264$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3372…1914backed Yes | 25c | 160.01$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 28 | 32.1%9 W · 19 L | -2.3wins | -0.08per pick | 40cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbbe8…0fedbacked Yes | 16c | 159.9$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.12 | 200 | 42%84 W · 116 L | -6.1wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1726…36f6backed Yes | 18c | 157.76$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x199a…f436backed Yes | 16c | 130$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedb1…3fddbacked Yes | 19c | 105.26$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 38 | 26.3%10 W · 28 L | -1.9wins | -0.05per pick | 31cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcc81…0ababacked Yes | 25c | 100$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 75 | 21.3%16 W · 59 L | -3.6wins | -0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7e…fce4backed Yes | 23c | 92.21$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.21 | 140 | 42.1%59 W · 81 L | +3.3wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc450…f2f7backed No | 77c | 90.91$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.91 | 17 | 70.6%12 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 73cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf2e…ddecbacked No | 75c | 86$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.5 | 122 | 69.7%85 W · 37 L | +14.5wins | +0.12per pick | 58cpaid | +24.7%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xac43…4925backed Yes | 25c | 80$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 85 | 43.5%37 W · 48 L | +3.0wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3486…49eebacked Yes | 25c | 80$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 274 | 37.2%102 W · 172 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd07…6bb7backed Yes | 18c | 68.82$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4859…0bb1backed Yes | 25c | 60$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf135…eb06backed Yes | 19c | 57.78$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4aef…9337backed Yes | 24c | 57.32$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.76 | 80 | 45%36 W · 44 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8e0…f949backed No | 76c | 50$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2edc…4a7abacked Yes | 24c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbf6…513abacked No | 75c | 50$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 52 | 53.8%28 W · 24 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x98ed…cd71backed Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 47cpaid | -48.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x695a…d3d6backed Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +1.6wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +17%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb786…b18dbacked No | 75c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 330 | 55.2%182 W · 148 L | +21.0wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2942…5c1bbacked No | 75c | 27$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.75 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Fenerbahce vs. Nice end in a draw?this page
- Will Fenerbahce win on 2025-10-02?Yes won
- Will Nice win on 2025-10-02?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.