Europa Conference League · resolved market
Will Nice win on 2025-10-02?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0ec8ffe813918cec5de65d05bef8acbe1898c0d7bc1d7b02b573947d9cf1914a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Europa Conference Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $23,880
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $26,130
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $23,880 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Europa Conference League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xdc5b…5b15backed No | 78c | 3,000$2,340 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$659.99 | 57 | 63.2%36 W · 21 L | +2.2wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x20da…e704backed Yes | 10c | 2,488$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$249.99 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc17a…1db3backed Yes | 22c | 2,257$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e5c…d8e6backed Yes | 18c | 2,056$370 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$370.16 | 279 | 39.8%111 W · 168 L | -15.0wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -19%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x90ba…63f3backed Yes | 20c | 2,050$410 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$410 | 260 | 22.3%58 W · 202 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 21cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb230…4193backed No | 80c | 1,423$1,138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$284.51 | 92 | 65.2%60 W · 32 L | +6.1wins | +0.07per pick | 59cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 22c | 1,416$305 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$305.02 | 3,726 | 47%1,750 W · 1,976 L | +20.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4231…f63ebacked No | 79c | 1,401$1,101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$300.12 | 151 | 51%77 W · 74 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f40…eb64backed No | 79c | 1,266$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$265.82 | 30 | 46.7%14 W · 16 L | +3.2wins | +0.11per pick | 36cpaid | +30.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb3c2…4074backed Yes | 22c | 1,260$279 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$278.6 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5adf…a5e7backed Yes | 20c | 843.26$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166.58 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | +2.7wins | +0.10per pick | 31cpaid | +45.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf0f6…f699backed Yes | 4c | 580$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | +1.4wins | +0.07per pick | 38cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7f7…2abfbacked Yes | 20c | 393.42$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.38 | 197 | 36%71 W · 126 L | +9.3wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xba8d…009dbacked Yes | 20c | 377.26$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.45 | 60 | 33.3%20 W · 40 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3505…f7a3backed No | 80c | 375$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.07per pick | 68cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a32…6d7ebacked No | 77c | 347.14$267 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.84 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x865f…e88ebacked Yes | 21c | 240$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.65 | 82 | 40.2%33 W · 49 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fd7…2a14backed No | 79c | 200$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.30per pick | 80cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaff0…3e1fbacked Yes | 22c | 141.05$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.03 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -1.7wins | -0.14per pick | 39cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x16cb…2704backed No | 78c | 136.72$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.24 | 104 | 52.9%55 W · 49 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38a0…16e9backed Yes | 15c | 135.18$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.95 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | +3.3wins | +0.16per pick | 27cpaid | +51.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xaaa7…e577backed No | 79c | 126.58$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.58 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 80cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2272…2e9cbacked Yes | 21c | 113.99$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.94 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 38cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc81…0ababacked Yes | 22c | 113.64$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 75 | 21.3%16 W · 59 L | -3.6wins | -0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4982…0a72backed Yes | 19c | 106$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe2ee…e354backed Yes | 19c | 105.26$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x347a…83e3backed Yes | 21c | 100$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 51 | 35.3%18 W · 33 L | -3.9wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdce0…2dafbacked Yes | 21c | 95.24$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | +2.1wins | +0.11per pick | 26cpaid | +54.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5a61…2accbacked Yes | 22c | 90.91$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +3.3wins | +0.28per pick | 39cpaid | +50.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xcdb4…629dbacked Yes | 22c | 68.18$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf778…2f09backed Yes | 21c | 64.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.65 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | -2.1wins | -0.13per pick | 32cpaid | -65.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5543…4195backed Yes | 21c | 61.9$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | +34.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2619…9f4ebacked Yes | 19c | 55$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.45 | 49 | 59.2%29 W · 20 L | +5.6wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +40.2%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x09ed…0cedbacked No | 78c | 50$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84dc…9c02backed Yes | 21c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 37 | 35.1%13 W · 24 L | -3.9wins | -0.11per pick | 46cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbc9b…303ebacked Yes | 22c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfcd9…aebdbacked No | 79c | 30.38$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.38 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 68cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2942…5c1bbacked No | 78c | 26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.72 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc5b…f102backed No | 79c | 24.05$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.05 | 46 | 60.9%28 W · 18 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 64cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5839…78f9backed No | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Nice win on 2025-10-02?this page
- Will Fenerbahce vs. Nice end in a draw?No won
- Will Fenerbahce win on 2025-10-02?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.