NHL · resolved market
Lightning vs. Utah: O/U 6.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x69eb9f041fd03271be662cc12c4594de7a75b034c7f60b426daf17734e6fdc64
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $37,054
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $37,200
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $37,054 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 43 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x16b0…6902backed Over | 46c | 11,300$5,198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,198 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.26per pick | 51cpaid | -59%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfb4b…600bbacked Over | 46c | 8,800$4,048 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,048 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdbd7…7098backed Under | 54c | 8,500$4,590 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,910 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.6wins | +0.22per pick | 49cpaid | +51.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe168…563abacked Under | 54c | 7,400$3,996 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,404 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x49ee…7afebacked Under | 54c | 7,000$3,780 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,220 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Under | 54c | 3,774$2,031 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,743.55 | 874 | 47%411 W · 463 L | +3.5wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbf0e…a35bbacked Over | 46c | 3,091$1,422 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,421.86 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.8wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1d3a…7b63backed Over | 46c | 2,676$1,241 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,241.46 | 866 | 49.9%432 W · 434 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x56af…08a0backed Over | 45c | 1,550$698 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$697.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc925…ddd6backed Under | 55c | 1,360$748 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$612 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +81.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd692…201cbacked Over | 45c | 1,197$539 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$538.65 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc157…0495backed Under | 55c | 1,164$640 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$523.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +81.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5375…aeeabacked Under | 58c | 1,152$664 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$487.81 | 588 | 41.8%246 W · 342 L | -20.6wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5724…e2f5backed Under | 55c | 1,099$604 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$494.55 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +81.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 46c | 1,077$492 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$492.08 | 2,894 | 51.3%1,484 W · 1,410 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84b0…b0d0backed Over | 45c | 1,066$480 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$479.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a5b…d06cbacked Under | 55c | 1,057$581 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$475.65 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +81.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x699f…d5c6backed Over | 45c | 1,000$450 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$450 | 183 | 45.9%84 W · 99 L | -10.1wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x76ed…fa48backed Over | 6c | 908.8$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.53 | 60 | 65%39 W · 21 L | +7.8wins | +0.13per pick | 52cpaid | +99.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xeafb…d595backed Over | 45c | 867$390 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$390.15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x56f6…9f57backed Under | 45c | 722.19$327 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$395.43 | 338 | 48.8%165 W · 173 L | +5.5wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8889…a9d1backed Over | 51c | 376.47$191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$191 | 203 | 45.3%92 W · 111 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d01…0ab1backed Under | 55c | 300$165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135 | 759 | 46.6%354 W · 405 L | -3.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf457…d1a6backed Under | 53c | 283.02$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.02 | 86 | 48.8%42 W · 44 L | -2.6wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8191…8a35backed Over | 70c | 223.33$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.33 | 56 | 55.4%31 W · 25 L | +2.4wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +37.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb47e…c602backed Over | 46c | 220$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.2 | 384 | 45.8%176 W · 208 L | -10.1wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8e48…6fd3backed Over | 51c | 220$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.1 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -3.1wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x7a02…b099backed Under | 55c | 213.66$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.15 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -2.0wins | -0.09per pick | 47cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x252b…8400backed Over | 45c | 168.67$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.9 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -1.0wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -45.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3e0b…cd84backed Over | 44c | 150$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66 | 121 | 53.7%65 W · 56 L | +4.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe0f3…54acbacked Under | 62c | 120$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +62.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Over | 49c | 100$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.5 | 74 | 32.4%24 W · 50 L | -7.0wins | -0.10per pick | 42cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Under | 48c | 60$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.2 | 1,054 | 42.5%448 W · 606 L | -25.3wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e52…9434backed Under | 57c | 57.89$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.89 | 93 | 47.3%44 W · 49 L | +3.1wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x00e2…72a3backed Under | 57c | 50.88$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.88 | 45 | 53.3%24 W · 21 L | +1.7wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x78df…cd96backed Over | 46c | 50.43$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | -1.2wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5cfe…ed69backed Over | 44c | 50$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 418 | 47.8%200 W · 218 L | +11.3wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9e4f…b1e8backed Over | 44c | 47.51$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a68…33bfbacked Under | 57c | 43.86$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.86 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb186…310cbacked Over | 46c | 43.48$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.17per pick | 50cpaid | +38.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x858a…7b9cbacked Over | 46c | 23.63$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.87 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…0300backed Under | 55c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 601 | 41.9%252 W · 349 L | -8.5wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc061…a297backed Under | 55c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 36 | 58.3%21 W · 15 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Lightning vs. Utah: O/U 6.5this page
- Lightning vs. UtahLightning won
- Spread: Lightning (-1.5)Lightning won
- Spread: Utah (-1.5)Lightning won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.