TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NHL · resolved market

Lightning vs. Utah

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Lightningof Lightning, Utah
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$454,228
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$469,530

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $454,228 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 378 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NHL
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xb18c…0d06backed Utah51c57,229$28,922 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28,921.961353.8%7 W · 6 L+0.4wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+7.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9b3d…7422backed Utah52c50,233$26,262 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26,261.5114057.9%81 W · 59 L+10.5wins+0.08per pick50cpaid+15.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x145c…43bcbacked Lightning50c46,182$23,031 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23,150.763148.4%15 W · 16 L-1.3wins-0.04per pick52cpaid-7.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x68dd…f0b2backed Lightning50c40,000$20,100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19,899.9625449.2%125 W · 129 L+2.8wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+3.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x16b2…a881backed Lightning48c31,002$14,773 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16,228.2388151.2%451 W · 430 L+10.4wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+1.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc3c3…eec8backed Utah33c30,000$9,800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,80042552.2%222 W · 203 L+25.0wins+0.06per pick46cpaid+9%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x6a72…33eebacked Lightning70c24,968$17,433 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,535.481,34554.8%737 W · 608 L+21.0wins+0.02per pick53cpaid-1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x83b9…6124backed Utah41c24,352$9,976 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,975.7430848.4%149 W · 159 L-8.9wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-5.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2129…4222backed Utah50c20,600$10,300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,30040550.9%206 W · 199 L+8.5wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3d77…71c5backed Utah50c20,200$10,100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,10010%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdde3…8e16backed Lightning50c20,200$10,100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,1001100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.50per pick50cpaid+100%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3151…0977backed Lightning68c15,200$10,331 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,868.9714538.6%56 W · 89 L-19.2wins-0.13per pick52cpaid-32.3%equal weight37-0.11 edge/pick
0x5adf…a5e7backed Lightning50c14,383$7,161 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,221.663249.5%313 W · 319 L+2.8wins0.00per pick49cpaid+1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x04b9…cdaabacked Lightning50c10,000$5,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,00010356.3%58 W · 45 L+4.1wins+0.04per pick52cpaid+12.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5375…aeeabacked Utah49c9,850$4,869 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,869.3858841.8%246 W · 342 L-20.6wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-16.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x6a89…2f26backed Lightning50c8,995$4,498 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,497.570547.7%336 W · 369 L-26.9wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-7.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4231…f63ebacked Lightning48c8,030$3,877 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,152.0137847.4%179 W · 199 L-5.6wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-1.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x60cd…a1b6backed Lightning52c7,767$4,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,766.8810658.5%62 W · 44 L+5.8wins+0.06per pick53cpaid+8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x900c…1d7abacked Lightning50c6,107$3,045 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,062.8741246.4%191 W · 221 L-24.5wins-0.06per pick52cpaid-12.1%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xf5e1…5ad0backed Utah51c6,000$3,060 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,06033151.7%171 W · 160 L+9.0wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+7.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0a77…9d74backed Lightning47c5,823$2,737 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,086.1252050%260 W · 260 L+6.8wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+3.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2586…c893backed Lightning49c5,369$2,641 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,727.9383652.8%441 W · 395 L+28.9wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+7.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xb028…b0dcbacked Lightning46c5,000$2,310 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,6902642.3%11 W · 15 L-2.5wins-0.10per pick52cpaid-19.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x4103…9b9ebacked Utah50c5,000$2,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,50028842%121 W · 167 L-12.4wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-13.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1822…804cbacked Lightning50c5,000$2,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,5003100%3 W · 0 L+1.4wins+0.47per pick53cpaid+90.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x74d3…0332backed Lightning49c5,000$2,450 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,549.9819451.5%100 W · 94 L+6.6wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+6.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfb5c…39b7backed Utah48c5,000$2,407 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,406.810%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.48per pick48cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd339…d3a1backed Lightning52c4,085$2,111 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,974.023946.2%18 W · 21 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick47cpaid+13.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe948…ff23backed Lightning51c4,000$2,040 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,96029651.7%153 W · 143 L+3.4wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+3.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x21d6…86fdbacked Lightning50c4,000$2,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,0006657.6%38 W · 28 L+6.2wins+0.09per pick48cpaid+19.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x91fd…e4c8backed Utah50c4,000$2,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,0002347.8%11 W · 12 L-0.7wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-5.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x50ff…2037backed Utah49c4,000$1,960 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,959.992937.9%11 W · 18 L-3.5wins-0.12per pick50cpaid-31.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x954e…927fbacked Utah48c3,885$1,865 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,864.8513946.8%65 W · 74 L-6.8wins-0.05per pick52cpaid-9.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x519f…2af7backed Utah53c3,774$2,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,0007044.3%31 W · 39 L-4.7wins-0.07per pick51cpaid-13.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Lightning48c3,761$1,821 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,940.162,89451.3%1,484 W · 1,410 L+58.0wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+4.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x976c…907cbacked Utah47c3,665$1,739 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,738.99250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-9.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9fad…5a9fbacked Utah51c3,049$1,555 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,554.8689547%421 W · 474 L-18.0wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-4.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7d5c…0182backed Utah50c3,030$1,515 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,51528353%150 W · 133 L+16.6wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+14.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xa562…28bdbacked Lightning50c3,000$1,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,5002100%2 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.45per pick55cpaid+83.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x9047…b9d2backed Lightning51c2,800$1,428 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,372850%4 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid-5.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2d30…3391backed Utah49c2,800$1,372 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,372862.5%5 W · 3 L+0.7wins+0.08per pick54cpaid+20.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x233d…0d05backed Lightning52c2,800$1,451 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,348.771100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.48per pick52cpaid+92.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7292…6bd3backed Utah55c2,743$1,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,5006046.7%28 W · 32 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-3.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa6a8…5009backed Lightning62c2,651$1,655 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$995.621,40647%661 W · 745 L+58.6wins+0.04per pick43cpaid-0.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xbd1e…ff14backed Utah50c2,606$1,303 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,302.948050.6%243 W · 237 L+12.6wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+5.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed Utah30c2,450$734 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$733.5999638.2%380 W · 616 L-10.3wins-0.01per pick39cpaid-12.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5137…1556backed Lightning49c2,443$1,196 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,246.6387447%411 W · 463 L+3.5wins0.00per pick47cpaid+1.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbfe4…5c4fbacked Utah50c2,257$1,119 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,118.684949%24 W · 25 L+0.2wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x20e5…082abacked Lightning69c2,170$1,488 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$682.541861.1%11 W · 7 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-4.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd3fd…dbc5backed Lightning51c2,122$1,082 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,039.722161.9%13 W · 8 L+3.2wins+0.15per pick47cpaid+38.2%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x3e04…564dbacked Lightning50c2,048$1,023 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,025.191,89152.4%991 W · 900 L+36.3wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+3.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xad18…0b4fbacked Utah34c2,000$680 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68041340%165 W · 248 L+9.2wins+0.02per pick38cpaid+3.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbfdf…8e02backed Utah5c2,000$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10034845.4%158 W · 190 L-3.9wins-0.01per pick47cpaid+1.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x42b5…b5b6backed Lightning50c2,000$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,0001,37749.1%676 W · 701 L+39.2wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+5.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3a7a…15a4backed Utah50c2,000$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00023047.4%109 W · 121 L-7.5wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-7.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6036…d2ccbacked Lightning50c2,000$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,00047051.5%242 W · 228 L+12.7wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+6.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5adf…078abacked Lightning49c2,000$980 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,020580%4 W · 1 L+1.5wins+0.29per pick51cpaid+54.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x6868…08d7backed Utah50c2,000$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0001850%9 W · 9 L+1.2wins+0.07per pick43cpaid+5.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x60a2…dd15backed Utah49c2,000$980 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98020%0 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.44per pick44cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x38a9…98ccbacked Utah50c1,932$966 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96620%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1140…bcb2backed Utah50c1,932$966 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96610%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1a72…88dabacked Utah50c1,932$966 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$966250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x27a0…d71dbacked Lightning51c1,894$966 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$928.121100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.49per pick51cpaid+96.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb10c…6146backed Lightning51c1,894$966 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$928.121100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.49per pick51cpaid+96.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2849…b3a2backed Lightning51c1,894$966 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$927.951100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.49per pick51cpaid+96.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Lightning37c1,867$689 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,178.5761848.1%297 W · 321 L+3.4wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xee7e…61bbbacked Utah49c1,606$795 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$794.9241248.3%199 W · 213 L-5.0wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-2.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8019…df3abacked Utah50c1,500$750 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7501163.6%7 W · 4 L+1.3wins+0.12per pick52cpaid+19.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8bd8…f306backed Lightning51c1,500$765 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$73531654.7%173 W · 143 L+14.7wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+9.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x882c…54d9backed Lightning51c1,400$714 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$686837.5%3 W · 5 L-1.3wins-0.16per pick53cpaid-33.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xaa07…2125backed Lightning48c1,382$668 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$714.461,07049.9%534 W · 536 L+22.6wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+3.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf68a…5b1bbacked Utah50c1,314$657 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$656.771,44149.2%709 W · 732 L+6.5wins0.00per pick49cpaid+0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6f40…bd86backed Lightning48c1,260$605 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$655.27152.1%37 W · 34 L+2.6wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+7.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x197b…818ebacked Lightning49c1,251$613 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$638.015350.9%27 W · 26 L-0.2wins0.00per pick51cpaid-2.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3248…aad4backed Lightning65c1,185$772 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$413.245152.9%27 W · 24 L+1.6wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+15.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbcb9…4734backed Lightning36c1,121$402 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$718.798543.5%37 W · 48 L-0.1wins0.00per pick44cpaid-13.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x977a…f2cabacked Utah2c1,100$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$241,1632.3%27 W · 1,136 L-10.7wins-0.01per pick3cpaid-87.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x781c…db68backed Utah26c1,079$278 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$277.5582043%353 W · 467 L-1.9wins0.00per pick43cpaid-8.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5696…b3aabacked Lightning50c1,050$525 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52516447.6%78 W · 86 L-2.0wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-3.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb61f…9958backed Utah13c1,003$128 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$127.632114.3%3 W · 18 L+1.4wins+0.07per pick8cpaid+46.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc4c5…f5d8backed Lightning49c1,000$490 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5101100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.51per pick49cpaid+104.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xffd0…93fcbacked Lightning51c1,000$510 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49012445.2%56 W · 68 L-8.3wins-0.07per pick52cpaid-13.8%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x7b6d…88f2backed Lightning50c1,000$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5001656.3%9 W · 7 L+0.6wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+11.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x28e8…6080backed Lightning48c1,000$480 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5202650%13 W · 13 L-0.1wins0.00per pick50cpaid+2.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x75e4…8153backed Utah49c999.92$490 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$489.96250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-18.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb023…f142backed Lightning49c963$472 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$491.136543.1%28 W · 37 L-3.2wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-10.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb853…0d33backed Utah53c943.4$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50012844.5%57 W · 71 L-8.5wins-0.07per pick51cpaid-13.8%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x2f89…19dfbacked Utah50c880.08$440 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$440.041973.7%14 W · 5 L+3.8wins+0.20per pick53cpaid+42.5%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xaf41…59c1backed Lightning49c833.33$408 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$425333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.17per pick51cpaid-32%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa82e…e915backed Utah50c833$417 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$416.5250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-16.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6e39…3122backed Utah51c825.8$421 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$421.162650%13 W · 13 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick51cpaid+4.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaf38…a59bbacked Utah50c800$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40016743.1%72 W · 95 L-12.8wins-0.08per pick51cpaid-14.6%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x216a…9380backed Lightning69c726.43$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$226.43333.3%1 W · 2 L-1.1wins-0.35per pick69cpaid-51.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6377…a709backed Utah50c656.9$328 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$328.451145.5%5 W · 6 L-0.5wins-0.04per pick50cpaid+3.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xd642…c499backed Utah49c649.97$318 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$318.481650%8 W · 8 L-0.7wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-11.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa99c…3070backed Utah32c625$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20029319.8%58 W · 235 L-9.4wins-0.03per pick23cpaid-23.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5bc4…f44fbacked Utah54c600$324 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32468449.9%341 W · 343 L-3.2wins0.00per pick50cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x057a…3bacbacked Utah49c597.91$295 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$295.0227143.5%118 W · 153 L+1.7wins+0.01per pick43cpaid-7.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0832…4130backed Utah50c584.89$292 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$292.451942.1%8 W · 11 L-2.2wins-0.12per pick54cpaid-18.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xb9d5…152cbacked Lightning51c581$296 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$284.691100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.49per pick51cpaid+96.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.