Tennis · resolved market
Alcaraz vs. Auger-Aliassime: Match O/U 21.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x69f570818a26ae9a8fde7218747bae1a8574eca99b8f3b73ed5f994c86527e04
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $37,896
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $37,976
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $37,896 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 20 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0f2a…b11ebacked Over | 6c | 15,777$947 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$946.62 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Over | 2c | 1,012$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.52 | 2,331 | 7.9%183 W · 2,148 L | -56.9wins | -0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -60.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Under | 69c | 631.87$434 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$197.57 | 2,489 | 45.2%1,126 W · 1,363 L | -27.4wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7032…0a8bbacked Over | 31c | 302$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.62 | 41 | 43.9%18 W · 23 L | -2.0wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked Under | 41c | 113.66$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.06 | 627 | 42.4%266 W · 361 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xae4e…67e2backed Over | 28c | 111.53$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.23 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.16per pick | 41cpaid | -48.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3eb0…8826backed Over | 59c | 108.47$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64 | 63 | 31.7%20 W · 43 L | -6.6wins | -0.10per pick | 42cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd200…ec52backed Over | 72c | 102.23$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Over | 26c | 94$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.16 | 52 | 26.9%14 W · 38 L | -3.2wins | -0.06per pick | 33cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc711…d3c6backed Under | 26c | 91.23$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.51 | 50 | 40%20 W · 30 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Under | 67c | 90.54$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.1 | 2,426 | 47.3%1,148 W · 1,278 L | +45.2wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc832…a5b7backed Over | 28c | 79.97$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.22 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd44…b2e2backed Under | 47c | 54.72$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29 | 31 | 48.4%15 W · 16 L | +2.8wins | +0.09per pick | 39cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xce49…c3b9backed Under | 42c | 50$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29 | 20 | 85%17 W · 3 L | +6.5wins | +0.32per pick | 53cpaid | +63.8%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xf1a3…0c69backed Over | 58c | 50$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 66 | 28.8%19 W · 47 L | -4.6wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -47.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x38a2…8cb0backed Over | 59c | 38.98$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.3wins | -0.65per pick | 65cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe2…8f71backed Over | 59c | 27.12$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x516d…7a3fbacked Over | 59c | 25.42$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.3wins | -0.65per pick | 65cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf7d6…6f49backed Over | 59c | 23.73$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.3wins | -0.64per pick | 64cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5fee…39efbacked Over | 59c | 22.03$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Alcaraz vs. Auger-Aliassime: Match O/U 21.5this page
- ATP World Tour Finals, Final Stage: Carlos Alcaraz vs Felix Auger-AliassimeAlcaraz won
- Alcaraz vs. Auger-Aliassime: Match O/U 22.5Under won
- Alcaraz vs. Auger-Aliassime: Set 1 Games O/U 10.5Under won
- Alcaraz vs. Auger-Aliassime: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5Under won
- Alcaraz vs. Auger-Aliassime: Set 1 Games O/U 9.5Under won
- Alcaraz vs. Auger-Aliassime: Total Sets O/U 2.5Under 2.5 won
- Set 1 Winner: Alcaraz vs Auger-AliassimeAlcaraz won
- Set Handicap: Alcaraz (-1.5) vs Auger-Aliassime (+1.5)Alcaraz won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.