Tennis · resolved market
Set Handicap: Alcaraz (-1.5) vs Auger-Aliassime (+1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x898f4c944ee117c94e3e382ae5c6c8ab15db706e70d83d4706cb7c56caf6aac5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Alcarazof Alcaraz, Auger-Aliassime
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $48,415
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $50,654
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $48,415 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc610…707abacked Alcaraz | 7c | 16,111$1,128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14,983.23 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.93per pick | 7cpaid | +1,328.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4fd1…4ea6backed Alcaraz | 60c | 4,027$2,400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,626.67 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -0.9wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -33.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x37e4…c991backed Auger-Aliassime | 40c | 3,707$1,483 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,482.64 | 220 | 37.7%83 W · 137 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0113…6f26backed Alcaraz | 61c | 2,165$1,313 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$851.93 | 129 | 49.6%64 W · 65 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8dcf…146ebacked Auger-Aliassime | 46c | 932.03$428 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$428 | 33 | 54.5%18 W · 15 L | +7.6wins | +0.23per pick | 31cpaid | +65.5%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x20c1…df04backed Auger-Aliassime | 42c | 800$336 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$336 | 184 | 39.1%72 W · 112 L | -6.9wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8d36…68fdbacked Auger-Aliassime | 46c | 643.56$296 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$295.87 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +2.7wins | +0.34per pick | 41cpaid | +106.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb7f5…c669backed Auger-Aliassime | 41c | 474.58$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$194.58 | 150 | 48%72 W · 78 L | +10.4wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | +18.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7d1e…31b6backed Auger-Aliassime | 51c | 433.29$222 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$222.18 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.8wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbb23…6c30backed Alcaraz | 59c | 338.98$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.98 | 47 | 40.4%19 W · 28 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Auger-Aliassime | 5c | 322.92$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.57 | 2,331 | 7.9%183 W · 2,148 L | -56.9wins | -0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -60.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Auger-Aliassime | 23c | 195.35$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 2,426 | 47.3%1,148 W · 1,278 L | +45.2wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x85d9…717bbacked Auger-Aliassime | 39c | 170.4$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.46 | 48 | 43.8%21 W · 27 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8ef7…1e3dbacked Alcaraz | 61c | 118.03$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.03 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac70…d0e7backed Alcaraz | 55c | 99.99$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.99 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.21per pick | 59cpaid | +35.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf934…8858backed Alcaraz | 59c | 84.75$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.75 | 23 | 21.7%5 W · 18 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 19cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf802…d91dbacked Alcaraz | 45c | 83.64$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46 | 36 | 47.2%17 W · 19 L | -3.3wins | -0.09per pick | 56cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x87e8…5e6ebacked Alcaraz | 60c | 82.79$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.79 | 419 | 55.8%234 W · 185 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a3…ad9ebacked Alcaraz | 64c | 78.13$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.13 | 509 | 52.1%265 W · 244 L | -8.3wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x70a1…978abacked Auger-Aliassime | 55c | 54.55$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 884 | 46.8%414 W · 470 L | +3.4wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf9ac…64e1backed Alcaraz | 59c | 50.85$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.85 | 34 | 35.3%12 W · 22 L | -7.7wins | -0.23per pick | 58cpaid | -46.9%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xce49…c3b9backed Alcaraz | 56c | 50$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 20 | 85%17 W · 3 L | +6.5wins | +0.32per pick | 53cpaid | +63.8%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x1527…120ebacked Auger-Aliassime | 35c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 34 | 55.9%19 W · 15 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d27…bd5abacked Alcaraz | 61c | 49.45$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.45 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.19per pick | 61cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Alcaraz | 27c | 47.29$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.74 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f9d…4ad7backed Auger-Aliassime | 40c | 42.68$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.07 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.17per pick | 43cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb428…0857backed Alcaraz | 61c | 29.51$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.51 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc36…53c3backed Alcaraz | 60c | 28.33$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.33 | 128 | 49.2%63 W · 65 L | -5.5wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa8ae…7f3ebacked Alcaraz | 61c | 25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.75 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.20per pick | 60cpaid | -41.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4d5f…1ea7backed Auger-Aliassime | 45c | 24.44$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.13per pick | 67cpaid | +12%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked Alcaraz | 55c | 23$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.35 | 627 | 42.4%266 W · 361 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2db8…e042backed Auger-Aliassime | 55c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 749 | 61.8%463 W · 286 L | -5.3wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Set Handicap: Alcaraz (-1.5) vs Auger-Aliassime (+1.5)this page
- ATP World Tour Finals, Final Stage: Carlos Alcaraz vs Felix Auger-AliassimeAlcaraz won
- Alcaraz vs. Auger-Aliassime: Match O/U 21.5Under won
- Alcaraz vs. Auger-Aliassime: Match O/U 22.5Under won
- Alcaraz vs. Auger-Aliassime: Set 1 Games O/U 10.5Under won
- Alcaraz vs. Auger-Aliassime: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5Under won
- Alcaraz vs. Auger-Aliassime: Set 1 Games O/U 9.5Under won
- Alcaraz vs. Auger-Aliassime: Total Sets O/U 2.5Under 2.5 won
- Set 1 Winner: Alcaraz vs Auger-AliassimeAlcaraz won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.