Tennis · resolved market
Alcaraz vs. Auger-Aliassime: Total Sets O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2b05af4b8b3b69e1af58df5d6296a517782505b740868cb3174c565b365339fd
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Under 2.5of Over 2.5, Under 2.5
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,628
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,602
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,628 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Over 2.5 | 2c | 944.49$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.36 | 2,331 | 7.9%183 W · 2,148 L | -56.9wins | -0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -60.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6896…3682backed Over 2.5 | 48c | 850.17$407 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$407.44 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Over 2.5 | 15c | 795.35$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.12 | 2,426 | 47.3%1,148 W · 1,278 L | +45.2wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa987…141dbacked Under 2.5 | 52c | 785.78$409 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$377.18 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Over 2.5 | 19c | 438.43$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.78 | 2,489 | 45.2%1,126 W · 1,363 L | -27.4wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e07…1f7ebacked Under 2.5 | 54c | 323.42$176 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.28 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.25per pick | 41cpaid | +24.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked Under 2.5 | 65c | 302.61$198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.7 | 627 | 42.4%266 W · 361 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x12d9…01bbbacked Over 2.5 | 35c | 257$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.35 | 226 | 41.6%94 W · 132 L | +6.3wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbfcf…6c9bbacked Over 2.5 | 22c | 227.27$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3eb0…8826backed Over 2.5 | 43c | 184.81$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 63 | 31.7%20 W · 43 L | -6.6wins | -0.10per pick | 42cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x85d9…717bbacked Under 2.5 | 64c | 145$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.2 | 48 | 43.8%21 W · 27 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x700f…62d8backed Over 2.5 | 20c | 135.52$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.45 | 383 | 48%184 W · 199 L | +7.7wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1eb8…6bbbbacked Over 2.5 | 46c | 123.13$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.2 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -3.6wins | -0.40per pick | 51cpaid | -77.8%equal weight | 38-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xfcfe…d420backed Over 2.5 | 36c | 111.11$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 253 | 52.2%132 W · 121 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x156e…46fdbacked Over 2.5 | 47c | 102.55$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.2 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe6a5…9b72backed Under 2.5 | 64c | 100$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.23 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0edd…3db1backed Under 2.5 | 76c | 99.99$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -2.1wins | -0.17per pick | 59cpaid | -33.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd386…1887backed Over 2.5 | 24c | 83.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 15 | 6.7%1 W · 14 L | -2.2wins | -0.14per pick | 21cpaid | -83.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Under 2.5 | 52c | 73$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.96 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf1a3…0c69backed Under 2.5 | 50c | 69.41$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.7 | 66 | 28.8%19 W · 47 L | -4.6wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -47.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb004…7a02backed Over 2.5 | 36c | 60$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.6 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe455…5a61backed Over 2.5 | 48c | 52.21$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a74…c861backed Over 2.5 | 34c | 44.12$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.20per pick | 55cpaid | +31.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x72aa…90e0backed Under 2.5 | 71c | 40.19$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.83 | 432 | 50.5%218 W · 214 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba4f…7ecebacked Over 2.5 | 36c | 30.69$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.05 | 81 | 59.3%48 W · 33 L | +3.1wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0be2…d514backed Under 2.5 | 73c | 29$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.73 | 98 | 57.1%56 W · 42 L | +6.0wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Alcaraz vs. Auger-Aliassime: Total Sets O/U 2.5this page
- ATP World Tour Finals, Final Stage: Carlos Alcaraz vs Felix Auger-AliassimeAlcaraz won
- Alcaraz vs. Auger-Aliassime: Match O/U 21.5Under won
- Alcaraz vs. Auger-Aliassime: Match O/U 22.5Under won
- Alcaraz vs. Auger-Aliassime: Set 1 Games O/U 10.5Under won
- Alcaraz vs. Auger-Aliassime: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5Under won
- Alcaraz vs. Auger-Aliassime: Set 1 Games O/U 9.5Under won
- Set 1 Winner: Alcaraz vs Auger-AliassimeAlcaraz won
- Set Handicap: Alcaraz (-1.5) vs Auger-Aliassime (+1.5)Alcaraz won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.