NBA · resolved market
Will the Miami Heat win the 8th seed in the NBA 2025 Eastern Conference Play-in Tournament?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6a1a7d4c130ad2769777b78465459ac383582d9692f85fddc2f97e9ace37bda5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,170
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,171
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,170 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 19 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4e25…d7a7backed No | 50c | 3,780$1,876 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,875.6 | 165 | 37%61 W · 104 L | -3.6wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x011f…1122backed Yes | 50c | 3,291$1,646 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,645.5 | 464 | 26.1%121 W · 343 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Yes | 51c | 1,474$751 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$722.33 | 2,736 | 46.7%1,277 W · 1,459 L | -67.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4c03…0cc1backed No | 50c | 1,000$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 1,602 | 11.8%189 W · 1,413 L | -4.8wins | 0.00per pick | 12cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ed0…235abacked No | 51c | 1,000$510 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$510 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb050…07f9backed No | 51c | 870$444 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$443.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa2b0…3505backed Yes | 49c | 720$353 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$367.2 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.51per pick | 50cpaid | +102%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xac65…ed6bbacked Yes | 49c | 375$184 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$191.25 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +104.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0d6…2da7backed Yes | 49c | 295$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.45 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +104.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e83…2cbebacked Yes | 49c | 265$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.15 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +104.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c9e…026dbacked Yes | 49c | 230$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.3 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +104.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee00…cea1backed No | 50c | 200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 701 | 47.8%335 W · 366 L | +15.4wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6650…d38ebacked Yes | 50c | 200$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 67 | 46.3%31 W · 36 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x553a…d31ebacked No | 51c | 130$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.3 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x014e…61aabacked Yes | 49c | 90$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.9 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +104.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0af8…9454backed Yes | 49c | 75.02$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.02 | 356 | 60.4%215 W · 141 L | +8.7wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 50c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 185 | 36.8%68 W · 117 L | -11.1wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9ecd…a578backed No | 51c | 50$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.5 | 231 | 35.1%81 W · 150 L | -11.1wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x38ed…5e8abacked Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.19per pick | 44cpaid | -50%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the Miami Heat win the 8th seed in the NBA 2025 Eastern Conference Play-in Tournament?this page
- Will the Atlanta Hawks win the 8th seed in the NBA 2025 Eastern Conference Play-in Tournament?No won
- Will the Orlando Magic win the 8th seed in the NBA 2025 Eastern Conference Play-in Tournament?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.