NBA · resolved market
Will the Atlanta Hawks win the 8th seed in the NBA 2025 Eastern Conference Play-in Tournament?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xaef9466cf7ae7bcb4c8b8859050f18beed7c60a19595bc62d4215d7afe0ba773
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,897
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,961
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,897 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 43 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked No | 51c | 1,455$747 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$708.41 | 2,736 | 46.7%1,277 W · 1,459 L | -67.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4c03…0cc1backed Yes | 49c | 1,439$706 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$706.22 | 1,602 | 11.8%189 W · 1,413 L | -4.8wins | 0.00per pick | 12cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e25…d7a7backed Yes | 51c | 700$360 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$360.3 | 165 | 37%61 W · 104 L | -3.6wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8532…d203backed Yes | 51c | 600$306 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$306 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1bd0…965dbacked No | 49c | 585$287 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$298.35 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +104.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x011f…1122backed No | 50c | 577.13$289 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$288.57 | 464 | 26.1%121 W · 343 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b36…9cbcbacked Yes | 51c | 535$273 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$272.85 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd050…a6d3backed No | 49c | 535$262 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$272.85 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +104.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4b3a…02bfbacked Yes | 51c | 520$265 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$265.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7538…403cbacked No | 49c | 465$228 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$237.15 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +104.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43d8…a7d3backed No | 49c | 460$225 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$234.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +104.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1231…27e8backed No | 49c | 445$218 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$226.95 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +104.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6858…9b50backed No | 49c | 395$194 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$201.45 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +104.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ffa…0ae6backed Yes | 51c | 370$189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x72de…d7bfbacked Yes | 51c | 350$179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$178.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x140a…5b52backed No | 49c | 325$159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165.75 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +104.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8ba2…a49dbacked Yes | 51c | 320$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe7f5…b6e9backed No | 49c | 310$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$158.1 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +104.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xab8f…bd51backed Yes | 51c | 285$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.35 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec78…b48bbacked No | 49c | 275$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.25 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +104.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8275…833ebacked Yes | 51c | 255$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.05 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9aab…91cfbacked Yes | 51c | 225$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.75 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x198f…f2d0backed No | 49c | 205$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.55 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +104.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd14…b31cbacked No | 49c | 200$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +104.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2b31…1646backed Yes | 51c | 180$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbf…ba45backed Yes | 51c | 175$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe87a…6d01backed No | 36c | 159.95$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.74 | 111 | 44.1%49 W · 62 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6623…789dbacked Yes | 51c | 150$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x961a…78ccbacked Yes | 51c | 95$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.45 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b60…0e08backed Yes | 51c | 85$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.35 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4180…6041backed Yes | 51c | 75$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4977…a104backed Yes | 51c | 70$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 63c | 62.95$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.66 | 185 | 36.8%68 W · 117 L | -11.1wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdc5b…f102backed Yes | 51c | 58.29$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.73 | 905 | 60.8%550 W · 355 L | -2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9ecd…a578backed Yes | 64c | 50$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 231 | 35.1%81 W · 150 L | -11.1wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1599…a913backed No | 49c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +104.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 52c | 46.17$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.16 | 1,554 | 37.3%579 W · 975 L | -48.1wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…4f2abacked Yes | 48c | 46.17$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.16 | 47 | 57.4%27 W · 20 L | +1.9wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x41de…6515backed Yes | 51c | 45$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.95 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcfb9…1e9abacked No | 49c | 35$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.85 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +104.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x53eb…abbabacked No | 49c | 35$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.85 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +104.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff26…b20dbacked No | 36c | 28$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.92 | 31 | 54.8%17 W · 14 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c03…21d0backed No | 49c | 25$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.75 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +104.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the Atlanta Hawks win the 8th seed in the NBA 2025 Eastern Conference Play-in Tournament?this page
- Will the Miami Heat win the 8th seed in the NBA 2025 Eastern Conference Play-in Tournament?Yes won
- Will the Orlando Magic win the 8th seed in the NBA 2025 Eastern Conference Play-in Tournament?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.