Olympics · resolved market
Will USA win Gold in Men's 4x100m Freestyle Relay?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6a3505e58d416f98c3b7bda049507250def78c2e9c18fa0531d5637b41c87c83
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Olympicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,295
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,936
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,295 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Olympics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Olympics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x90e9…de83backed No | 5c | 2,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +1.7wins | +0.16per pick | 21cpaid | +7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf474…bb31backed No | 28c | 1,190$337 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$337.1 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x07ca…a694backed No | 28c | 950$265 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$264.5 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.28per pick | 32cpaid | +167.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdb75…fd95backed Yes | 70c | 518.49$363 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155.92 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.14per pick | 53cpaid | +58.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2137…0677backed Yes | 72c | 376.01$269 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.86 | 54 | 46.3%25 W · 29 L | +7.3wins | +0.14per pick | 33cpaid | +159.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…87cfbacked Yes | 77c | 350$270 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80 | 82 | 36.6%30 W · 52 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaeb5…58e2backed No | 29c | 300$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 22cpaid | -54.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa7cc…4952backed Yes | 73c | 287.83$210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.2 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | +2.0wins | +0.11per pick | 33cpaid | +21.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8514…360bbacked Yes | 77c | 259.55$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.55 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc35…0ba7backed No | 25c | 200$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9733…f034backed Yes | 75c | 168.37$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.09 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +3.1wins | +0.21per pick | 39cpaid | +31.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x45ab…2f22backed Yes | 77c | 150$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.5 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +55%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xce66…8f33backed No | 19c | 129.35$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.58 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda0f…f0e7backed Yes | 71c | 105$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.45 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | +1.2wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x02cb…ae38backed Yes | 78c | 100$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa40d…ea7abacked No | 12c | 92.11$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.45 | 83 | 9.6%8 W · 75 L | +3.0wins | +0.04per pick | 6cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4d9d…a6d7backed Yes | 75c | 89.41$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.57 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.19per pick | 53cpaid | -55.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f3c…3203backed No | 23c | 86.96$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfee4…5b91backed Yes | 74c | 67.57$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.57 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -55%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b55…02f8backed No | 21c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 48 | 43.8%21 W · 27 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf339…e010backed No | 30c | 49.17$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.75 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +1.1wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x230b…9a37backed Yes | 71c | 29$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.41 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf9a1…625abacked Yes | 75c | 26.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.67 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x26e7…630fbacked Yes | 76c | 26.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.32 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc3c…e38bbacked Yes | 76c | 19.74$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.74 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xecbe…42ffbacked Yes | 70c | 16$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Olympics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will USA win Gold in Men's 4x100m Freestyle Relay?this page
- Will Australia win Gold in Men's 4x100m Freestyle Relay?No won
- Will China win Gold in Men's 4x100m Freestyle Relay?No won
- Will Italy win Gold in Men's 4x100m Freestyle Relay?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.