Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 31°C on March 29?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6a449eca6a5dfc3ad52c90c07a31a85e2bdae20c0c641eeb48ed18c94d878559
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,070
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,090
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,070 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 45 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xda91…d760backed Yes | 29c | 397.06$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.57 | 1,010 | 40.3%407 W · 603 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc33a…045fbacked Yes | 4c | 384.62$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 19c | 340.81$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.18 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f7…e0dabacked Yes | 13c | 282.03$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.78 | 1,861 | 23.8%443 W · 1,418 L | +47.9wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc8d6…017cbacked Yes | 18c | 278.6$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.65 | 238 | 23.9%57 W · 181 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 24cpaid | +11%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd80a…c714backed Yes | 22c | 247.14$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.25 | 1,977 | 18.8%371 W · 1,606 L | +8.0wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2974…e9d8backed Yes | 20c | 229.75$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 233 | 23.6%55 W · 178 L | +5.1wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | +19%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 23c | 217.06$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.17 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe47e…f8abbacked Yes | 7c | 212.37$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.94 | 240 | 66.3%159 W · 81 L | +13.5wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfcda…bb51backed No | 76c | 157.38$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.68 | 38 | 50%19 W · 19 L | -3.0wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…6fe5backed Yes | 12c | 153.08$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.14 | 1,452 | 36.8%534 W · 918 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6b8…4bdfbacked Yes | 9c | 147.02$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.68 | 342 | 19.9%68 W · 274 L | +18.6wins | +0.05per pick | 14cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd228…ea6fbacked Yes | 16c | 145$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.2 | 229 | 34.1%78 W · 151 L | -8.4wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed Yes | 16c | 134.9$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.12 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 18c | 129.99$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.94 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 77c | 111.96$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.8 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 13c | 108.35$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.94 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3556…d33ebacked Yes | 27c | 103.4$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.13 | 33 | 45.5%15 W · 18 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xae07…8059backed Yes | 24c | 100.01$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.39 | 435 | 25.3%110 W · 325 L | +7.9wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x25eb…0506backed Yes | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 42 | 38.1%16 W · 26 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe752…2200backed Yes | 19c | 99.96$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.99 | 1,204 | 25.3%305 W · 899 L | +18.2wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe5a1…3840backed Yes | 14c | 97$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.91 | 1,153 | 27.1%312 W · 841 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x026e…9505backed Yes | 20c | 96.5$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.77 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3319…977abacked Yes | 17c | 88.23$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 264 | 26.9%71 W · 193 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc7c…23c8backed Yes | 21c | 72.31$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.17per pick | 42cpaid | -48.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x955a…ff6abacked Yes | 17c | 72.12$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.26 | 42 | 59.5%25 W · 17 L | +3.9wins | +0.09per pick | 50cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfc8d…3257backed Yes | 20c | 71.18$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.18 | 200 | 25%50 W · 150 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 21c | 67.5$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.3 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1f…5154backed No | 60c | 60.26$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.1 | 44 | 45.5%20 W · 24 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x62e2…1f89backed Yes | 35c | 59$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.65 | 100 | 67%67 W · 33 L | +7.2wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbb47…b128backed Yes | 18c | 57.14$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.29 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 17cpaid | +123.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x399f…e8d8backed Yes | 18c | 55.56$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 101 | 54.5%55 W · 46 L | -4.3wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x379e…ad96backed Yes | 19c | 53$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.07 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.27per pick | 40cpaid | +36.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf357…10b6backed Yes | 23c | 51.63$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.83 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x08fc…3c2dbacked Yes | 22c | 49.8$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.05 | 55 | 40%22 W · 33 L | +2.4wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8677…9724backed Yes | 36c | 42.07$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 55 | 40%22 W · 33 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x053b…d0fabacked Yes | 30c | 41.15$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.49 | 65 | 36.9%24 W · 41 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc6c8…d7c5backed No | 64c | 38.19$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.75 | 241 | 49.8%120 W · 121 L | -10.5wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfc0b…5de5backed Yes | 33c | 32.78$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaafc…ec67backed No | 63c | 31.75$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.75 | 447 | 57.3%256 W · 191 L | +53.9wins | +0.12per pick | 45cpaid | +24%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 72c | 28$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.84 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x58de…83afbacked No | 78c | 25.8$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.8 | 25 | 72%18 W · 7 L | +2.1wins | +0.08per pick | 64cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0327…6d04backed No | 70c | 25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ea…86cabacked No | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 19 | 68.4%13 W · 6 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 64cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4107…c4c5backed No | 80c | 19.43$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.95 | 66 | 42.4%28 W · 38 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -19%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 31°C on March 29?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 24°C or below on March 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 25°C on March 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 27°C on March 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 28°C on March 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 29°C on March 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 30°C on March 29?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 32°C on March 29?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.