Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 30°C on March 29?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa09a9cc54af052ae267ebb22d961156beb0993b38bd3f9acb6222d9e00d4203a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $21,142
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $23,764
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,142 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 89 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbb9f…557bbacked No | 18c | 451.33$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.3 | 722 | 22.3%161 W · 561 L | -37.3wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -47.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc8d6…017cbacked Yes | 42c | 391.79$164 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$227.34 | 238 | 23.9%57 W · 181 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 24cpaid | +11%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8fc7…0a64backed Yes | 78c | 320.44$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.45 | 57 | 77.2%44 W · 13 L | +3.8wins | +0.07per pick | 71cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2974…e9d8backed Yes | 31c | 282.12$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$194.86 | 233 | 23.6%55 W · 178 L | +5.1wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | +19%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd7f6…628cbacked No | 66c | 246.55$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.69 | 67 | 55.2%37 W · 30 L | -5.3wins | -0.08per pick | 63cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xda91…d760backed Yes | 50c | 215.85$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.94 | 1,010 | 40.3%407 W · 603 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 57c | 208.69$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.35 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 38c | 200$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.14 | 860 | 50.9%438 W · 422 L | +29.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdf40…38b8backed No | 15c | 200$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.01 | 583 | 49.4%288 W · 295 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd15…b352backed No | 47c | 179.95$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.35 | 1,857 | 18.7%347 W · 1,510 L | +77.0wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 37c | 168.18$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.66 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 30c | 166.67$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x62e2…1f89backed Yes | 79c | 166.38$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.88 | 100 | 67%67 W · 33 L | +7.2wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 27c | 153.83$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.08 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xfedf…ee2abacked Yes | 39c | 127.17$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.17 | 56 | 33.9%19 W · 37 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb70d…43f4backed Yes | 67c | 115.75$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.98 | 173 | 58.4%101 W · 72 L | +14.3wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +56.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 40c | 110$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.13 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 45c | 104.49$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.21 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xae07…8059backed Yes | 25c | 100.05$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.52 | 435 | 25.3%110 W · 325 L | +7.9wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe5a1…3840backed Yes | 39c | 97$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.87 | 1,153 | 27.1%312 W · 841 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb27…cc9dbacked Yes | 42c | 96.31$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.05 | 41 | 34.1%14 W · 27 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1f…5154backed Yes | 60c | 96.2$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.1 | 44 | 45.5%20 W · 24 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 65c | 95.31$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.32 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5bcd…cf4bbacked No | 25c | 95.01$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.99 | 360 | 57.5%207 W · 153 L | +21.9wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe47e…f8abbacked No | 28c | 88.99$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.5 | 240 | 66.3%159 W · 81 L | +13.5wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8110…c1babacked No | 63c | 84.17$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.02 | 82 | 50%41 W · 41 L | -3.4wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6bac…4e7ebacked Yes | 73c | 81.45$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.79 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +1.1wins | +0.08per pick | 45cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 43c | 77.04$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.44 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed No | 41c | 76.28$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.27 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x052e…ade1backed Yes | 31c | 70.02$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.31 | 283 | 29.3%83 W · 200 L | -13.6wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xccf3…1dd9backed Yes | 43c | 69.1$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.1 | 47 | 46.8%22 W · 25 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x354a…ae3ebacked Yes | 70c | 69$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.7 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.28per pick | 73cpaid | +38.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x95b2…49aabacked Yes | 60c | 68$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.38 | 41 | 46.3%19 W · 22 L | +1.7wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked No | 48c | 65.57$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.57 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x053b…d0fabacked Yes | 49c | 57.54$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.52 | 65 | 36.9%24 W · 41 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x399f…e8d8backed Yes | 36c | 56$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.85 | 101 | 54.5%55 W · 46 L | -4.3wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7fe…1e42backed Yes | 30c | 54.8$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.47 | 344 | 57%196 W · 148 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc7c…23c8backed Yes | 46c | 54.31$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.38 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.17per pick | 42cpaid | -48.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc046…f138backed Yes | 37c | 53.74$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.74 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | +1.9wins | +0.08per pick | 35cpaid | +22.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 70c | 52.45$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.67 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed5b…a76abacked Yes | 62c | 50$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.85 | 190 | 47.4%90 W · 100 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1098…10a7backed Yes | 34c | 50$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33 | 417 | 33.8%141 W · 276 L | -17.0wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc921…d6f3backed No | 60c | 48$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.72 | 153 | 39.9%61 W · 92 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 50c | 46.18$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.32 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x825c…e066backed No | 59c | 45.18$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.78 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8267…f7b7backed Yes | 45c | 44.94$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.72 | 116 | 56.9%66 W · 50 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xecce…ccbabacked Yes | 38c | 44.87$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.87 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.14per pick | 52cpaid | +41.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e24…7379backed Yes | 30c | 43.74$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.62 | 456 | 19.1%87 W · 369 L | -11.8wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -24%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 29c | 43.34$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.77 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1203…3947backed Yes | 44c | 43.16$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.29 | 156 | 39.7%62 W · 94 L | -4.2wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -18%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb9df…1e41backed Yes | 74c | 41.39$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.85 | 29 | 37.9%11 W · 18 L | -6.1wins | -0.21per pick | 59cpaid | -41.4%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xc25d…67b3backed Yes | 56c | 40.73$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.03 | 111 | 61.3%68 W · 43 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce75…2d8ebacked Yes | 45c | 40.52$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.39 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.55per pick | 45cpaid | +123.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc3f…f038backed No | 38c | 40$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.1 | 661 | 41.8%276 W · 385 L | -12.8wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe03a…439fbacked No | 74c | 40$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.6 | 189 | 10.6%20 W · 169 L | -87.5wins | -0.46per pick | 57cpaid | -84%equal weight | 5-0.41 edge/pick |
| 0x8f44…c470backed Yes | 40c | 40$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 75 | 46.7%35 W · 40 L | +2.1wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd637…7617backed Yes | 67c | 39.82$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.08 | 135 | 33.3%45 W · 90 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd354…4d78backed Yes | 39c | 39.69$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.09 | 101 | 32.7%33 W · 68 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 56c | 39.5$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.12 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0005…d5fdbacked Yes | 44c | 38.91$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.91 | 36 | 30.6%11 W · 25 L | -2.1wins | -0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 60c | 37.87$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.86 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1fcb…e83cbacked Yes | 43c | 37.84$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.71 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.57per pick | 43cpaid | +134.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8796…e255backed No | 40c | 37.21$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.88 | 119 | 25.2%30 W · 89 L | -14.1wins | -0.12per pick | 37cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x356b…1c3fbacked Yes | 29c | 36$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.62 | 591 | 25.9%153 W · 438 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0b90…08e7backed Yes | 69c | 35.01$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.91 | 135 | 54.8%74 W · 61 L | -6.9wins | -0.05per pick | 60cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc17f…d96abacked Yes | 34c | 34.98$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.09 | 94 | 45.7%43 W · 51 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +13%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x65c4…7ea4backed Yes | 43c | 34.72$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.72 | 559 | 42.6%238 W · 321 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x354d…eb8fbacked Yes | 40c | 34.25$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.41 | 701 | 33.5%235 W · 466 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5322…fa84backed Yes | 39c | 33$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.22 | 38 | 31.6%12 W · 26 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc498…8ba5backed Yes | 42c | 32.94$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.94 | 424 | 38.9%165 W · 259 L | -4.6wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7cff…57c0backed No | 61c | 32.86$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.61per pick | 61cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8677…9724backed Yes | 62c | 32.01$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.01 | 55 | 40%22 W · 33 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f8a…2cbebacked Yes | 42c | 31.03$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.12 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | +1.3wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x97dc…f612backed Yes | 62c | 30.78$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.78 | 20 | 85%17 W · 3 L | +5.4wins | +0.27per pick | 58cpaid | +48.3%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x91d9…141dbacked No | 57c | 30.3$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.2 | 1,256 | 38.2%480 W · 776 L | +53.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0b5e…f21dbacked Yes | 66c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.2 | 83 | 39.8%33 W · 50 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3681…4e48backed No | 69c | 29.25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.2 | 1,375 | 56%770 W · 605 L | +25.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe4f0…0bd2backed No | 66c | 28.39$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.74 | 92 | 50%46 W · 46 L | -9.4wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe058…cf72backed Yes | 42c | 25$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.5 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x48b2…05cebacked Yes | 42c | 24$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc970…e315backed No | 64c | 23.62$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.12 | 65 | 53.8%35 W · 30 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a8e…05a4backed Yes | 64c | 20.74$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.52 | 430 | 50.2%216 W · 214 L | +21.7wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x16fa…25ffbacked Yes | 62c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.6 | 46 | 82.6%38 W · 8 L | +7.8wins | +0.17per pick | 66cpaid | +50.1%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x8ef3…ac46backed No | 54c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 194 | 49%95 W · 99 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa36b…1d89backed No | 65c | 18.78$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.21 | 555 | 38.4%213 W · 342 L | -14.1wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4676…b720backed Yes | 67c | 18.38$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 981 | 60.6%594 W · 387 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8bab…72ddbacked No | 62c | 18.31$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.35 | 75 | 61.3%46 W · 29 L | -5.9wins | -0.08per pick | 69cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x204b…75f3backed Yes | 69c | 16.32$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 221 | 71%157 W · 64 L | +14.5wins | +0.07per pick | 65cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 30°C on March 29?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 24°C or below on March 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 25°C on March 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 27°C on March 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 28°C on March 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 29°C on March 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 31°C on March 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 32°C on March 29?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.