CS2 · resolved market
Counter-Strike: ASTRAL vs Ursa - Map 2 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6a4bc95eab42e2e7aa3989752c13300497f52f90e81027b2743806a89d6fd878
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- ASTRALof ASTRAL, Ursa
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,432
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,481
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,432 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 17 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in CS2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked ASTRAL | 46c | 2,450$1,137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,313.03 | 7,925 | 50.4%3,997 W · 3,928 L | +179.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3db4…d69bbacked Ursa | 55c | 2,000$1,100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,099.99 | 750 | 56.8%426 W · 324 L | +47.8wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd8b6…c7dbbacked Ursa | 55c | 1,651$908 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$908.25 | 362 | 53.3%193 W · 169 L | +6.6wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe8e1…49ddbacked ASTRAL | 47c | 840.58$391 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$449.11 | 1,398 | 48.4%676 W · 722 L | +11.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc4bb…22a9backed Ursa | 55c | 394.28$217 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$216.85 | 276 | 47.1%130 W · 146 L | -9.9wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked ASTRAL | 45c | 321.18$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$176.65 | 5,511 | 47%2,590 W · 2,921 L | +42.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…2877backed Ursa | 58c | 310.34$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180 | 648 | 54.3%352 W · 296 L | +25.6wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x505f…645ebacked ASTRAL | 45c | 306.41$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$169.95 | 2,604 | 52.6%1,371 W · 1,233 L | +98.0wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd055…28d0backed ASTRAL | 42c | 287.14$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$166.54 | 655 | 46.9%307 W · 348 L | +18.4wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1b59…0ba0backed Ursa | 43c | 232.98$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.18 | 557 | 38.4%214 W · 343 L | +11.5wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ec3…34a7backed ASTRAL | 47c | 127.42$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.09 | 1,109 | 50.5%560 W · 549 L | -3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x05d3…c06abacked Ursa | 69c | 98.28$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.71 | 1,710 | 52.3%895 W · 815 L | -73.4wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xea37…94f3backed Ursa | 55c | 95.22$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.37 | 329 | 51.7%170 W · 159 L | +7.1wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0e1b…ecafbacked ASTRAL | 31c | 83.27$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.46 | 2,328 | 51.1%1,189 W · 1,139 L | +92.3wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x755a…6da6backed ASTRAL | 45c | 64.47$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.46 | 1,046 | 45%471 W · 575 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc0…699abacked ASTRAL | 44c | 59.06$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.06 | 1,181 | 22.5%266 W · 915 L | +3.6wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -15%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5625…6c2abacked ASTRAL | 50c | 58.04$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.07 | 361 | 51.8%187 W · 174 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Counter-Strike: ASTRAL vs Ursa - Map 2 Winnerthis page
- Counter-Strike: ASTRAL vs Ursa (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Play-In Group DASTRAL won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.