TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

CS2 · resolved market

Counter-Strike: ASTRAL vs Ursa (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Play-In Group D

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
ASTRALof ASTRAL, Ursa
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$30,001
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$33,617

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $30,001 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 85 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in CS2
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xdbdd…a5debacked ASTRAL50c4,881$2,439 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,442.397,92550.4%3,997 W · 3,928 L+179.4wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-2.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x8e8c…65ddbacked Ursa66c3,758$2,498 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,498.1484454.3%458 W · 386 L+4.6wins+0.01per pick54cpaid+2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x31d4…a7abbacked Ursa55c3,499$1,924 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,924.4116447%77 W · 87 L+7.6wins+0.05per pick42cpaid+18.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3db4…d69bbacked Ursa55c3,111$1,711 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,711.0875056.8%426 W · 324 L+47.8wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+13.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x5407…251cbacked Ursa50c3,000$1,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,50014857.4%85 W · 63 L+11.9wins+0.08per pick49cpaid+22.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x52b7…0aa1backed ASTRAL33c2,500$825 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,6751,41133.7%475 W · 936 L+42.1wins+0.03per pick31cpaid+8.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8e19…d2b0backed ASTRAL46c2,098$975 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,122.752750.7%267 W · 260 L+17.8wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+6.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd8b6…c7dbbacked Ursa55c1,776$977 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$976.7936253.3%193 W · 169 L+6.6wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+4.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdd23…387ebacked ASTRAL49c1,461$709 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$751.8229154%157 W · 134 L+17.3wins+0.06per pick48cpaid+12.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xe8e1…49ddbacked ASTRAL48c1,039$498 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$540.681,39848.4%676 W · 722 L+11.6wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-10.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa960…9407backed Ursa41c999.98$410 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$409.999554.7%52 W · 43 L+1.9wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+5.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x24d3…30abbacked ASTRAL33c881.2$291 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$590.47425.7%19 W · 55 L-4.9wins-0.07per pick32cpaid-28.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x51db…f9b3backed ASTRAL39c773.55$303 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4716,48042.9%2,782 W · 3,698 L-79.1wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-21.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x505f…645ebacked ASTRAL49c750.65$366 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$384.162,60452.6%1,371 W · 1,233 L+98.0wins+0.04per pick49cpaid-3.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0b95…07e5backed ASTRAL47c742.71$350 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$393.1532443.5%141 W · 183 L-15.0wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-19.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xfd14…2267backed ASTRAL34c730.48$248 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$482.635,83037.8%2,203 W · 3,627 L+79.0wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+0.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfe9b…cbe5backed ASTRAL49c713.79$351 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$362.8344244.1%195 W · 247 L+12.3wins+0.03per pick41cpaid+7.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf9a4…bf13backed ASTRAL48c620.38$296 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$323.943951.3%20 W · 19 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-3.3%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xc4bb…22a9backed Ursa55c618.21$340 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$340.0227647.1%130 W · 146 L-9.9wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-6.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xab04…a00abacked Ursa50c550$275 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27517240.1%69 W · 103 L-10.9wins-0.06per pick46cpaid-14.9%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xbfd7…f0bfbacked ASTRAL52c510.28$264 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$246.365,51147%2,590 W · 2,921 L+42.0wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-4.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x368d…d853backed ASTRAL45c492.2$221 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$270.7178348.4%379 W · 404 L+17.9wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+6.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0a7c…8964backed Ursa67c489.86$328 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$328.2161154.7%334 W · 277 L+11.1wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+5.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2133…7903backed Ursa40c399.99$160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16038835.8%139 W · 249 L-6.8wins-0.02per pick38cpaid-10.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x906f…2877backed Ursa62c382.66$239 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$238.6464854.3%352 W · 296 L+25.6wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+7.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1b3e…5bc0backed ASTRAL59c352.14$208 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$144.3815358.2%89 W · 64 L+5.6wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+5.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x0fde…0258backed ASTRAL50c324.34$161 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$162.8679951.7%413 W · 386 L+25.4wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+5.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4ade…fb15backed ASTRAL50c301.51$151 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$150.8519748.7%96 W · 101 L+2.1wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd6a8…58fdbacked Ursa49c299.22$146 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$146.3524939.8%99 W · 150 L+5.6wins+0.02per pick37cpaid-1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa74a…4893backed ASTRAL44c280$124 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$155.941,21640.1%488 W · 728 L-65.0wins-0.05per pick45cpaid-28.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x6dea…e294backed ASTRAL49c242.35$119 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$123.635848.3%173 W · 185 L+9.1wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+2.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x4ec3…34a7backed ASTRAL51c241$124 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$117.241,10950.5%560 W · 549 L-3.0wins0.00per pick51cpaid-7.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5fa6…03ebbacked Ursa56c220$123 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$123.295642.6%407 W · 549 L-7.3wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-2.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5625…6c2abacked ASTRAL45c215.57$97 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$118.8836151.8%187 W · 174 L+4.4wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+5.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x86c8…c867backed ASTRAL57c205$117 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$88.159540%38 W · 57 L-3.3wins-0.03per pick43cpaid+7.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5de7…5417backed ASTRAL45c193.4$87 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$106.371,14643.5%499 W · 647 L-17.5wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-2.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x3d30…11f1backed ASTRAL60c171.58$103 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$68.6316350.3%82 W · 81 L+14.2wins+0.09per pick42cpaid+24.7%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x3308…b3debacked Ursa59c156.08$92 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$92.383951.3%20 W · 19 L+4.2wins+0.11per pick41cpaid+43.1%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x45da…72febacked Ursa51c152.94$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$786845.6%31 W · 37 L-2.6wins-0.04per pick49cpaid-8.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xced8…221ebacked Ursa66c150$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9970038.9%272 W · 428 L-29.5wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-18.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xea37…94f3backed Ursa55c149.63$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82.332951.7%170 W · 159 L+7.1wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+3.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x37d7…f131backed Ursa67c147.03$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.5133451.5%172 W · 162 L-2.1wins-0.01per pick52cpaid+0.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1572…cb78backed Ursa67c129.47$87 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$86.75742.9%3 W · 4 L-1.0wins-0.15per pick57cpaid-23.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xc59f…954ebacked ASTRAL49c126.62$62 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64.5721653.2%115 W · 101 L+9.7wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+13.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2ca6…6a20backed ASTRAL55c122.89$68 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.7747447.5%225 W · 249 L-12.7wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-3.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8afa…28f0backed ASTRAL43c114.85$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$65.373948.4%358 W · 381 L+5.1wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+0.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5b11…58c9backed ASTRAL44c112.65$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63.082540%10 W · 15 L-1.7wins-0.07per pick47cpaid-13.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xfc75…5431backed ASTRAL44c112.02$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.452740.7%11 W · 16 L-1.7wins-0.06per pick47cpaid-14%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xaad9…caefbacked ASTRAL45c110.22$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$60.621540%6 W · 9 L-0.8wins-0.05per pick45cpaid-13.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x133a…f9d1backed ASTRAL33c109.6$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$73.4339237.2%146 W · 246 L-0.5wins0.00per pick37cpaid-1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xac89…3783backed ASTRAL45c108.15$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59.483548.6%17 W · 18 L+1.3wins+0.04per pick45cpaid+5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5d08…5d9fbacked ASTRAL45c107.44$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59.0920248%97 W · 105 L+7.2wins+0.04per pick44cpaid+9.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x6dc0…699abacked ASTRAL44c100.6$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.141,18122.5%266 W · 915 L+3.6wins0.00per pick22cpaid-15%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe574…68a7backed Ursa67c98.02$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.67757.1%4 W · 3 L+1.0wins+0.14per pick43cpaid+21.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0cc7…9194backed ASTRAL38c97.69$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$60.339251.1%47 W · 45 L+1.4wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc0f1…8680backed ASTRAL39c96.34$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.772,52243%1,085 W · 1,437 L+42.7wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-3.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x43d7…1c75backed ASTRAL34c96.04$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63.3932845.1%148 W · 180 L-2.7wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-5.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x793c…22b6backed ASTRAL47c95.22$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.594744.7%21 W · 26 L-3.7wins-0.08per pick53cpaid-18%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xd8a5…26a1backed ASTRAL44c93.61$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.5815749.7%78 W · 79 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-6.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5929…4684backed ASTRAL37c82.49$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.584,06450.9%2,067 W · 1,997 L+69.5wins+0.02per pick49cpaid-6.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x29b5…cc6cbacked Ursa62c82.16$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.945,05055.1%2,781 W · 2,269 L+117.2wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+5.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x9bd9…084fbacked Ursa47c78.54$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.0247260%283 W · 189 L+31.8wins+0.07per pick53cpaid+8.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x3a08…5627backed ASTRAL54c75.94$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.093342.4%14 W · 19 L-1.2wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-20.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdffe…b4d3backed ASTRAL34c73.44$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.4714630.8%45 W · 101 L-8.6wins-0.06per pick37cpaid-27.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x755a…6da6backed ASTRAL56c73.17$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.361,04645%471 W · 575 L+6.9wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7b28…ff4fbacked ASTRAL58c68.94$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.671,35252%703 W · 649 L+29.7wins+0.02per pick50cpaid-3.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbd94…f736backed ASTRAL45c66.12$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.371050%5 W · 5 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid-0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3892…4093backed Ursa60c64.56$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.5822650%113 W · 113 L-6.5wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-8.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8e8f…870ebacked ASTRAL33c63.46$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.5222542.7%96 W · 129 L+6.6wins+0.03per pick40cpaid+11.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3e6d…2671backed ASTRAL34c51.06$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.776248.4%369 W · 393 L+13.2wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5a2b…d4e9backed Ursa67c49.01$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.841936.8%7 W · 12 L-2.1wins-0.11per pick48cpaid-17.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xe7fe…24e5backed Ursa23c45.1$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.428326.5%22 W · 61 L-4.6wins-0.05per pick32cpaid-16.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x812a…73edbacked Ursa64c39.15$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.9648319%92 W · 391 L-65.4wins-0.14per pick33cpaid-46.4%equal weight36-0.13 edge/pick
0x37c1…8de1backed ASTRAL44c33.89$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.981,31944.2%583 W · 736 L+45.8wins+0.03per pick41cpaid+8.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xb19f…1c86backed ASTRAL45c32.21$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.728033.8%27 W · 53 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick35cpaid-18.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1e1c…35c6backed Ursa69c31.09$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.621454.2%116 W · 98 L-1.8wins-0.01per pick55cpaid-0.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2bee…e55cbacked Ursa71c30.31$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.5120457.8%118 W · 86 L-11.0wins-0.05per pick63cpaid-8.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x41c8…424fbacked Ursa58c27.35$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.9115160.9%92 W · 59 L+9.2wins+0.06per pick55cpaid+14%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xf512…5198backed ASTRAL59c24.39$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1016464.6%106 W · 58 L+5.1wins+0.03per pick62cpaid+4.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe3f8…4d2abacked Ursa51c22.84$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.6518554.1%100 W · 85 L+6.8wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+3.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xcd61…02d4backed Ursa58c22.7$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.213953.8%21 W · 18 L+1.3wins+0.03per pick50cpaid-0.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x92bd…826dbacked Ursa63c20.67$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.021250%6 W · 6 L-1.7wins-0.14per pick64cpaid-26.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xe5b1…30b2backed Ursa62c20.55$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.7447856.7%271 W · 207 L+1.6wins0.00per pick56cpaid-1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xeac9…4092backed Ursa59c19.72$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.563754.1%20 W · 17 L-1.8wins-0.05per pick59cpaid-7.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc187…efaabacked Ursa70c19.68$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.695646.4%26 W · 30 L-6.7wins-0.12per pick58cpaid-21.1%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.