Tennis · resolved market
Qatar Total Open: Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova vs Elise Mertens
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6a5f7af2b9a2bd62936d0a58a0ffa3f6631c30608f5415aedd5d0ea77827afbc
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Mertensof Pavlyuchenkova, Mertens
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $49,075
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $69,758
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $49,075 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 19 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Pavlyuchenkova | 11c | 6,931$741 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$740.97 | 2,746 | 30.8%846 W · 1,900 L | -67.1wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Pavlyuchenkova | 12c | 2,544$293 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$293.26 | 2,865 | 44.3%1,269 W · 1,596 L | +6.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Pavlyuchenkova | 8c | 606.69$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.85 | 3,072 | 44.9%1,378 W · 1,694 L | -30.9wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -23%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4fab…708bbacked Pavlyuchenkova | 22c | 604.55$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133 | 1,276 | 30.4%388 W · 888 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d94…017dbacked Pavlyuchenkova | 6c | 384$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.2 | 2,068 | 34.9%721 W · 1,347 L | -44.2wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd6…ab3dbacked Pavlyuchenkova | 25c | 207.71$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.39 | 348 | 42.2%147 W · 201 L | +12.4wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa509…ae46backed Pavlyuchenkova | 10c | 192.34$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.74 | 6,786 | 48.8%3,310 W · 3,476 L | +56.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Pavlyuchenkova | 22c | 161$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.42 | 1,039 | 54.6%567 W · 472 L | +37.6wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1733…1e15backed Pavlyuchenkova | 20c | 150$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 781 | 52.8%412 W · 369 L | +21.3wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9da2…ed3abacked Mertens | 79c | 126.58$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.58 | 106 | 68.9%73 W · 33 L | +3.0wins | +0.03per pick | 66cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Pavlyuchenkova | 14c | 126.39$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.83 | 3,256 | 48.2%1,570 W · 1,686 L | -53.4wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51eb…6bfabacked Mertens | 80c | 125$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 2,561 | 63%1,613 W · 948 L | -10.2wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3d78…a4ccbacked Mertens | 75c | 101.33$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.33 | 330 | 55.8%184 W · 146 L | +9.0wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd610…4c9abacked Pavlyuchenkova | 21c | 60$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 1,212 | 33.1%401 W · 811 L | -16.7wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x45db…8f65backed Pavlyuchenkova | 23c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.42 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84f7…ade1backed Pavlyuchenkova | 23c | 47$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.81 | 1,028 | 33.6%345 W · 683 L | -3.6wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Mertens | 77c | 31.55$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.18 | 7,139 | 49.7%3,548 W · 3,591 L | +109.9wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8a4e…b38cbacked Mertens | 80c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 76cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Mertens | 78c | 13.33$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.93 | 884 | 55%486 W · 398 L | +37.4wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.