Movies · resolved market
Will "Mortal Kombat 2" be the second highest grossing movie of this weekend?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6ad5207f9bf8809eb388bf1bbc101316705c0a8c5f7ad53243ccccb9ae1f4ae8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,069
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,830
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,069 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 16 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf2f5…137ebacked No | 9c | 1,893$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$179.64 | 233 | 21.5%50 W · 183 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -34%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e39…352cbacked Yes | 62c | 1,445$898 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$546.94 | 41 | 51.2%21 W · 20 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3690…e16fbacked No | 20c | 1,028$203 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$202.73 | 60 | 28.3%17 W · 43 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -54.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb94c…b5b5backed No | 51c | 893.72$456 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$455.8 | 47 | 46.8%22 W · 25 L | +3.7wins | +0.08per pick | 39cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x33f8…c5e4backed No | 24c | 626.27$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.81 | 294 | 23.5%69 W · 225 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -43%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x79dc…ca77backed No | 7c | 391.08$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.59 | 20 | 20%4 W · 16 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -53.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7dc3…7865backed No | 18c | 353$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.04 | 70 | 22.9%16 W · 54 L | -2.7wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x955c…990fbacked No | 15c | 212$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.8 | 71 | 57.7%41 W · 30 L | +5.2wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +29.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 13c | 201.24$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.74 | 99 | 51.5%51 W · 48 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe562…4fa9backed No | 51c | 196.27$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 264 | 31.1%82 W · 182 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4737…93f2backed Yes | 79c | 126.3$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.3 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x97f8…7483backed No | 16c | 87.76$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.87 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca12…ea03backed No | 21c | 85.12$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.88 | 30 | 66.7%20 W · 10 L | +4.7wins | +0.16per pick | 51cpaid | +88.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xca0c…b9b6backed Yes | 76c | 60$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.28 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +30.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbe78…c533backed No | 53c | 52.99$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.99 | 297 | 35.7%106 W · 191 L | +2.7wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa739…e31abacked Yes | 73c | 16.68$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.54 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will "Mortal Kombat 2" be the second highest grossing movie of this weekend?this page
- Will "Michael" be the second highest grossing movie of this weekend?No won
- Will "The Devil Wears Prada 2" be the second highest grossing movie of this weekend?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.