NHL · resolved market
Lightning vs. Red Wings
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6b2cf8d57434a995204db7b224ac3e85dc635217fcb42aed82c407591667efd6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Red Wingsof Lightning, Red Wings
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,485
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,004
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,485 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 50 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x40e3…0787backed Red Wings | 75c | 4,302$3,217 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,085.02 | 323 | 31.3%101 W · 222 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Lightning | 23c | 2,650$597 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$596.55 | 1,406 | 47%661 W · 745 L | +58.6wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x977a…f2cabacked Lightning | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1,163 | 2.3%27 W · 1,136 L | -10.7wins | -0.01per pick | 3cpaid | -87.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x58b5…7340backed Lightning | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 103 | 1%1 W · 102 L | -3.1wins | -0.03per pick | 4cpaid | -97.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x93bc…8ca3backed Lightning | 28c | 991.07$278 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$277.5 | 1,025 | 40.8%418 W · 607 L | +15.6wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d3a…7b63backed Lightning | 56c | 583.42$327 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$326.72 | 866 | 49.9%432 W · 434 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0269…cb2dbacked Red Wings | 43c | 545.95$234 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$311.7 | 355 | 45.4%161 W · 194 L | +11.8wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe27b…858fbacked Red Wings | 44c | 499.99$222 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$278.02 | 724 | 44.6%323 W · 401 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7327…151abacked Lightning | 31c | 400$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.8 | 75 | 32%24 W · 51 L | +4.4wins | +0.06per pick | 26cpaid | 0%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd561…9423backed Lightning | 55c | 347.98$191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$191.39 | 165 | 54.5%90 W · 75 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc94b…fd9bbacked Red Wings | 45c | 300.58$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165.32 | 380 | 40.5%154 W · 226 L | -16.2wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Lightning | 24c | 245.48$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.99 | 913 | 34.1%311 W · 602 L | -27.1wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2227…b572backed Red Wings | 44c | 221.96$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.3 | 37 | 43.2%16 W · 21 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4673…d99bbacked Lightning | 55c | 213.75$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.56 | 318 | 49.4%157 W · 161 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b7e…6a9fbacked Lightning | 58c | 200$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.4 | 1,039 | 55.2%574 W · 465 L | -5.7wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Lightning | 25c | 200$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3,704 | 50.5%1,871 W · 1,833 L | +105.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Lightning | 58c | 150.86$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.5 | 1,037 | 55%570 W · 467 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x54f5…9093backed Lightning | 57c | 149.12$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85 | 86 | 38.4%33 W · 53 L | -4.9wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9353…cdbebacked Lightning | 55c | 149.03$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.47 | 508 | 57.7%293 W · 215 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfc93…4249backed Red Wings | 74c | 134.67$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.67 | 82 | 54.9%45 W · 37 L | -5.1wins | -0.06per pick | 61cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2235…d67fbacked Red Wings | 45c | 111.11$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.11 | 70 | 62.9%44 W · 26 L | +8.0wins | +0.11per pick | 51cpaid | +25.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3305…f25fbacked Lightning | 58c | 104.14$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -2.0wins | -0.28per pick | 57cpaid | -49.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2920…80bebacked Lightning | 57c | 103.33$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.9 | 249 | 45.8%114 W · 135 L | -11.3wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf699…07e1backed Red Wings | 66c | 102.49$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.22 | 854 | 64.2%548 W · 306 L | +64.5wins | +0.08per pick | 57cpaid | +18.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbaba…f0a4backed Red Wings | 43c | 101.35$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.77 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.57per pick | 43cpaid | +132.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa1ae…3327backed Lightning | 55c | 100$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 36 | 36.1%13 W · 23 L | -3.5wins | -0.10per pick | 46cpaid | -32%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x904b…429cbacked Red Wings | 45c | 100$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55 | 500 | 49.4%247 W · 253 L | -4.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5036…416bbacked Red Wings | 42c | 100$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58 | 276 | 43.5%120 W · 156 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ea2…f05dbacked Red Wings | 45c | 95.38$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.46 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x207a…6fecbacked Lightning | 55c | 90.73$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.71 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9307…6bf9backed Lightning | 56c | 89.86$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.32 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Red Wings | 45c | 87$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.85 | 1,636 | 50.4%825 W · 811 L | -20.9wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2af9…96e4backed Lightning | 56c | 82.79$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.36 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xde53…e5bebacked Red Wings | 42c | 80$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.4 | 191 | 50.8%97 W · 94 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x438e…9704backed Lightning | 46c | 80$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.6 | 170 | 54.7%93 W · 77 L | -5.9wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e38…5d36backed Red Wings | 45c | 78.02$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.91 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdcca…18f5backed Lightning | 31c | 64.52$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.10per pick | 62cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd67a…eb69backed Lightning | 33c | 60.61$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 24 | 8.3%2 W · 22 L | -2.9wins | -0.12per pick | 21cpaid | -60.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d3…9d4bbacked Lightning | 54c | 50.22$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.12 | 792 | 51.1%405 W · 387 L | +21.7wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb13d…2e90backed Lightning | 56c | 49.39$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.62 | 840 | 51.4%432 W · 408 L | +19.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c57…5b16backed Red Wings | 41c | 45.08$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.6 | 1,475 | 48.3%712 W · 763 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9544…f3fbbacked Red Wings | 46c | 43.48$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.48 | 155 | 49.7%77 W · 78 L | -7.0wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc54b…0614backed Red Wings | 46c | 43.48$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.48 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.54per pick | 46cpaid | +117.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6163…8507backed Lightning | 56c | 35.71$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 198 | 52.5%104 W · 94 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x994e…9cf5backed Red Wings | 42c | 35$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.3 | 493 | 51.3%253 W · 240 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x66e3…310ebacked Red Wings | 44c | 34.09$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.09 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfb18…198cbacked Lightning | 57c | 30.79$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.55 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdaa1…4340backed Red Wings | 44c | 24.11$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.5 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | +1.9wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ba5…3607backed Red Wings | 45c | 24$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.15 | 66 | 40.9%27 W · 39 L | -8.1wins | -0.12per pick | 53cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa5b3…f4eebacked Lightning | 58c | 20.29$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.77 | 38 | 52.6%20 W · 18 L | -2.5wins | -0.07per pick | 59cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.