Crypto Milestones · resolved market
Will Solana dip to $110 January 19-25?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6b30b14bb590263cba6df0352e39d7d5b22a53cf0a9e92790c4523ab95101b86
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $73,853
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $58,789
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $73,853 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 20 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 1c | 11,593$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.2 | 1,844 | 4.4%81 W · 1,763 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc747…324bbacked Yes | 5c | 9,189$479 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$478.65 | 66 | 22.7%15 W · 51 L | +12.3wins | +0.19per pick | 4cpaid | +272.5%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x371c…b37ebacked Yes | 3c | 3,001$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.87 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c5a…0a4fbacked Yes | 2c | 2,786$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 475 | 4.6%22 W · 453 L | +14.7wins | +0.03per pick | 2cpaid | +144.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe9…bb0abacked Yes | 3c | 2,400$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.5 | 167 | 29.3%49 W · 118 L | +7.6wins | +0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6772…c2d4backed Yes | 3c | 1,922$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x17f1…0528backed Yes | 2c | 1,446$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.45 | 30 | 6.7%2 W · 28 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3761…bb47backed Yes | 2c | 1,053$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.51 | 66 | 15.2%10 W · 56 L | +3.3wins | +0.05per pick | 10cpaid | +27.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf632…02aabacked Yes | 2c | 852.91$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.45 | 73 | 21.9%16 W · 57 L | +4.8wins | +0.07per pick | 15cpaid | +51.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc6be…43c9backed Yes | 2c | 846.47$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 11cpaid | +117%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5360…1f6fbacked Yes | 2c | 780.12$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 146 | 6.2%9 W · 137 L | +4.1wins | +0.03per pick | 3cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed Yes | 2c | 743.8$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.59 | 212 | 5.7%12 W · 200 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 4c | 597.99$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.19 | 678 | 5.9%40 W · 638 L | +11.9wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb803…b265backed Yes | 3c | 545.39$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.95 | 23 | 8.7%2 W · 21 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 6cpaid | -26%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d7e…85c5backed Yes | 8c | 396.1$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.16per pick | 24cpaid | +82.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x25af…bcafbacked Yes | 3c | 395.05$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.99 | 399 | 8.5%34 W · 365 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22af…399abacked Yes | 6c | 210.07$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.7 | 23 | 17.4%4 W · 19 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e55…760dbacked Yes | 10c | 160$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.77 | 24 | 29.2%7 W · 17 L | +4.8wins | +0.20per pick | 9cpaid | +125.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x3fff…4b55backed Yes | 7c | 156.21$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.93 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5602…1400backed Yes | 9c | 113.71$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Solana dip to $110 January 19-25?this page
- Will Solana dip to $120 January 19-25?Yes won
- Will Solana reach $140 January 19-25?No won
- Will Solana reach $150 January 19-25?No won
- Will Solana reach $160 January 19-25?No won
- Will Solana reach $170 January 19-25?No won
- Will Solana reach $190 January 19-25?No won
- Will Solana reach $200 January 19-25?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.