Tennis · resolved market
Set 1 Winner: Paul vs Svajda
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6b3cb3f0792221ed0d8c853b267386c6a55486468dc7106a4df26becc35e3e23
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Paulof Paul, Svajda
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $1,241
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $1,584
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,241 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 10 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x024f…1c51backed Svajda | 36c | 281.5$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 45 | 26.7%12 W · 33 L | -7.7wins | -0.17per pick | 44cpaid | -46.6%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x6844…7633backed Paul | 66c | 148.54$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.56 | 105 | 40%42 W · 63 L | -7.4wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe0db…3c88backed Paul | 69c | 145.75$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.75 | 190 | 51.6%98 W · 92 L | -8.2wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5929…4684backed Paul | 66c | 93.47$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.78 | 3,677 | 54.8%2,015 W · 1,662 L | +107.4wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Svajda | 27c | 91.97$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.65 | 5,416 | 48.6%2,633 W · 2,783 L | +14.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x72aa…90e0backed Svajda | 30c | 52.52$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.58 | 432 | 50.5%218 W · 214 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked Svajda | 31c | 46.93$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 6,449 | 46.3%2,987 W · 3,462 L | -42.9wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -13%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa052…ee29backed Paul | 69c | 43.36$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.36 | 67 | 62.7%42 W · 25 L | +6.2wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +26.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7547…d158backed Svajda | 34c | 35$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.9 | 7,049 | 39.7%2,795 W · 4,254 L | -20.5wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd3b…cea6backed Paul | 66c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.2 | 83 | 65.1%54 W · 29 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 63cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Set 1 Winner: Paul vs Svajdathis page
- HSBC Championships: Tommy Paul vs Zachary SvajdaTommy Paul won
- Paul vs. Svajda: Match O/U 22.5Under won
- Set 2 Winner: Paul vs SvajdaPaul won
- Set Handicap: Paul (-1.5) vs Svajda (+1.5)Paul won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.