NHL · resolved market
Sharks vs. Lightning
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6b3eb80e2791a11ed7cca347ff6cca43ec5542b78c17c3136c6f9cd280b1e337
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Lightningof Sharks, Lightning
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,271
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,125
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,271 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Lightning | 36c | 1,500$540 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$960 | 52 | 50%26 W · 26 L | +3.0wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4673…d99bbacked Sharks | 64c | 1,500$960 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$960 | 318 | 49.4%157 W · 161 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa8cd…3cf2backed Sharks | 28c | 847.33$233 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$233.25 | 36 | 41.7%15 W · 21 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x215d…7840backed Lightning | 73c | 660.65$480 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180.65 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 66cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfdd9…ad08backed Sharks | 30c | 530.19$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.06 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +1.8wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa97b…388dbacked Lightning | 70c | 530.19$371 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159.06 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +1.7wins | +0.13per pick | 49cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Lightning | 72c | 400$288 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112 | 1,037 | 55%570 W · 467 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcd28…2e65backed Lightning | 71c | 397.41$282 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.25 | 19 | 68.4%13 W · 6 L | +1.9wins | +0.10per pick | 59cpaid | +17%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc815…c262backed Lightning | 71c | 391.55$278 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.55 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfeee…c5c4backed Sharks | 31c | 391.4$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x93bc…8ca3backed Sharks | 29c | 238.13$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.06 | 1,025 | 40.8%418 W · 607 L | +15.6wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b7e…6a9fbacked Lightning | 73c | 200$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.05 | 1,039 | 55.2%574 W · 465 L | -5.7wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f7…039abacked Sharks | 27c | 190.13$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.34 | 35 | 34.3%12 W · 23 L | -2.9wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9353…cdbebacked Lightning | 72c | 138.89$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.89 | 508 | 57.7%293 W · 215 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x177e…a572backed Lightning | 72c | 100$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 42 | 54.8%23 W · 19 L | -3.3wins | -0.08per pick | 63cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcb9a…cb4dbacked Lightning | 70c | 99.97$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.99 | 18 | 72.2%13 W · 5 L | +1.8wins | +0.10per pick | 62cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf33f…085cbacked Sharks | 29c | 99$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.71 | 818 | 46%376 W · 442 L | +4.1wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8c91…0505backed Lightning | 71c | 70.39$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.39 | 76 | 50%38 W · 38 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc17a…1db3backed Sharks | 29c | 68$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 79 | 50.6%40 W · 39 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb299…4a62backed Lightning | 72c | 50$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 731 | 57.5%420 W · 311 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9e74…10e0backed Sharks | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x479f…bb7dbacked Lightning | 72c | 41.21$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.54 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +1.0wins | +0.06per pick | 60cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe0bf…14cfbacked Lightning | 71c | 40$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.6 | 11 | 81.8%9 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.12per pick | 70cpaid | +18%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d2…3721backed Lightning | 72c | 36.44$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.2 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3845…65c2backed Sharks | 29c | 36.43$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.73 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2474…4957backed Lightning | 72c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 61 | 68.9%42 W · 19 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc95c…cef3backed Lightning | 70c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 193 | 47.2%91 W · 102 L | -14.9wins | -0.08per pick | 55cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfce4…7addbacked Lightning | 72c | 27.78$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.78 | 24 | 58.3%14 W · 10 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x88c1…a7cbbacked Lightning | 72c | 27.64$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.64 | 45 | 71.1%32 W · 13 L | +2.6wins | +0.06per pick | 65cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9797…4e3dbacked Lightning | 72c | 20.83$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.83 | 39 | 61.5%24 W · 15 L | -3.7wins | -0.10per pick | 71cpaid | -14%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfd31…4f6dbacked Lightning | 70c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe563…398bbacked Lightning | 71c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.8 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfcea…34eabacked Lightning | 71c | 19.55$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.67 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3161…52dbbacked Lightning | 71c | 17.5$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 8 | 100%8 W · 0 L | +2.6wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +48.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf543…cedfbacked Lightning | 71c | 16.48$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.78 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | -1.3wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21a2…866dbacked Lightning | 72c | 15.28$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.28 | 92 | 60.9%56 W · 36 L | -3.9wins | -0.04per pick | 65cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.