Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 19°C on March 12?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6b4e9d1f8ea6a4e7b12fc616395441bc2a95262645abd4b1b7db52b84a685746
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $23,096
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $23,709
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $23,096 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x286d…825abacked Yes | 0c | 10,074$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 625 | 55.2%345 W · 280 L | -12.1wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9bda…439fbacked Yes | 3c | 1,479$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.63 | 594 | 40.6%241 W · 353 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d72…8e62backed Yes | 10c | 400$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 1,817 | 8.1%148 W · 1,669 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 14c | 291.45$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.35 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 19c | 267.95$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.53 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe3a6…9e63backed Yes | 11c | 199.81$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.97 | 332 | 32.8%109 W · 223 L | +18.8wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x861b…d8cabacked Yes | 23c | 169.42$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 18 | 11.1%2 W · 16 L | -3.8wins | -0.21per pick | 32cpaid | -65%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd98d…1179backed Yes | 17c | 155$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.13 | 232 | 31%72 W · 160 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 79c | 154.72$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33 | 2,268 | 79.5%1,803 W · 465 L | +98.4wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5368…2d62backed Yes | 20c | 124.98$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1,804 | 27.4%494 W · 1,310 L | +27.6wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4b40…96e3backed Yes | 21c | 119.86$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.17 | 522 | 45%235 W · 287 L | -13.2wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 13c | 117.09$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.84 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xcf37…993fbacked Yes | 18c | 105.81$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.82 | 656 | 25.8%169 W · 487 L | -13.2wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7fbb…2779backed Yes | 19c | 105.56$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.9 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x91d9…141dbacked No | 76c | 105.13$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.88 | 1,256 | 38.2%480 W · 776 L | +53.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6b4c…efa9backed Yes | 25c | 102.5$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 122 | 30.3%37 W · 85 L | -11.5wins | -0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb708…ef3dbacked Yes | 19c | 100$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 27 | 18.5%5 W · 22 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeeec…a723backed No | 79c | 96.4$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.88 | 34 | 52.9%18 W · 16 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 79c | 89.13$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.77 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2779…62dfbacked Yes | 18c | 89.1$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.04 | 251 | 19.9%50 W · 201 L | -6.6wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -29%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 76c | 74.19$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.14 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 80c | 62.5$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc9b7…ac89backed No | 80c | 60$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 110 | 44.5%49 W · 61 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 77c | 58.12$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.31 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x09c5…9e8abacked Yes | 19c | 57$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.63 | 213 | 33.8%72 W · 141 L | -4.4wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa41a…0fd7backed Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 72 | 29.2%21 W · 51 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce3…4291backed No | 79c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 2,165 | 23.8%516 W · 1,649 L | +83.8wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcfdf…4056backed Yes | 27c | 45.28$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.32 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c0a…364bbacked Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc24f…81d3backed No | 78c | 39.37$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.72 | 985 | 71%699 W · 286 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 77c | 35.93$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.39 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3865…fcbebacked No | 76c | 32.84$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.84 | 1,002 | 60.9%610 W · 392 L | -26.2wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0461…fcbcbacked No | 71c | 29.99$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.7 | 724 | 66.2%479 W · 245 L | +33.6wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf618…6a90backed No | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 58 | 58.6%34 W · 24 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x45b9…03ddbacked No | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 19°C on March 12?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on March 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on March 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 18°C on March 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 20°C on March 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 21°C or higher on March 12?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.