Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 21°C or higher on March 12?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2383c420db79caeb86955e794b7398a6ddc626e43bd4360521e828561056b538
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $37,243
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $37,243 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 102 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9d1b…4f09backed No | 1c | 16,434$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.04 | 105 | 37.1%39 W · 66 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3edb…aa1ebacked No | 1c | 1,700$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.02 | 169 | 68%115 W · 54 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad13…7ed6backed No | 67c | 827.95$558 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$557.72 | 919 | 67%616 W · 303 L | -10.6wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x861b…d8cabacked No | 67c | 659.72$444 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$444.01 | 18 | 11.1%2 W · 16 L | -3.8wins | -0.21per pick | 32cpaid | -65%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xce45…aa7bbacked No | 3c | 599.01$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 39 | 20.5%8 W · 31 L | -4.9wins | -0.12per pick | 33cpaid | -67.8%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1c78…42e6backed No | 8c | 584.36$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.14 | 597 | 42%251 W · 346 L | +96.8wins | +0.16per pick | 26cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 67+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 45c | 571.18$258 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$313.31 | 6,854 | 39.4%2,698 W · 4,156 L | +266.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7919…ca3fbacked No | 62c | 569.08$353 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$352.83 | 34 | 52.9%18 W · 16 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 33c | 493.39$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$332.99 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d72…8e62backed Yes | 10c | 400$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$362 | 1,817 | 8.1%148 W · 1,669 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1600…9236backed Yes | 30c | 357.55$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$251.99 | 354 | 32.5%115 W · 239 L | +9.2wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5264…9a63backed Yes | 38c | 300$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$186 | 740 | 23.9%177 W · 563 L | +23.6wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9bda…439fbacked No | 61c | 218.83$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.71 | 594 | 40.6%241 W · 353 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 38c | 186.8$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.03 | 8,309 | 49.2%4,089 W · 4,220 L | +271.0wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd98d…1179backed Yes | 28c | 186.72$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.43 | 232 | 31%72 W · 160 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffb…119dbacked Yes | 48c | 186.28$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.28 | 430 | 21.9%94 W · 336 L | +22.0wins | +0.05per pick | 17cpaid | +34.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce3…4291backed Yes | 50c | 172.64$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.64 | 2,213 | 23.7%525 W · 1,688 L | +86.2wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa96a…1377backed No | 61c | 161$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98 | 541 | 43.6%236 W · 305 L | -12.9wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d8d…a96cbacked Yes | 38c | 157.89$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.89 | 810 | 29.1%236 W · 574 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed No | 13c | 157.63$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.49 | 411 | 12.4%51 W · 360 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 12cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x91d9…141dbacked Yes | 29c | 150.82$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.51 | 1,256 | 38.2%480 W · 776 L | +53.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xef0f…1dc9backed Yes | 40c | 150$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90 | 106 | 50%53 W · 53 L | +11.0wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +27%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7eb9…505fbacked Yes | 44c | 144$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.64 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.56per pick | 44cpaid | +127.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf103…094dbacked No | 72c | 139.17$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.55 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.72per pick | 72cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9a26…c335backed Yes | 20c | 129.5$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.6 | 862 | 26.8%231 W · 631 L | +28.6wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x919d…f1b1backed Yes | 48c | 117.5$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.62 | 100 | 51%51 W · 49 L | +5.0wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +29.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdf40…38b8backed No | 77c | 107.08$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.45 | 583 | 49.4%288 W · 295 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf37…993fbacked Yes | 34c | 103.6$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.87 | 676 | 25.7%174 W · 502 L | -14.6wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -36%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 46c | 103.11$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.92 | 12,477 | 46.8%5,840 W · 6,637 L | -43.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ef…8b9cbacked Yes | 45c | 100$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55 | 31 | 35.5%11 W · 20 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf1c1…1bebbacked Yes | 38c | 99.99$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62 | 276 | 48.6%134 W · 142 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ed5…72a6backed Yes | 49c | 99.55$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.39 | 101 | 54.5%55 W · 46 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8d…038bbacked Yes | 35c | 98.62$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.25 | 302 | 68.9%208 W · 94 L | +28.2wins | +0.09per pick | 60cpaid | +27.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xeeec…a723backed No | 75c | 96.4$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.87 | 34 | 52.9%18 W · 16 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed No | 40c | 92.71$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.25 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 61c | 92.45$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.39 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x09c5…9e8abacked Yes | 27c | 92.2$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.2 | 214 | 33.6%72 W · 142 L | -5.0wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -13%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf751…6f60backed Yes | 54c | 91.89$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.89 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +83.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb537…14ccbacked No | 57c | 87.71$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.99 | 414 | 60.1%249 W · 165 L | -21.5wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdf36…ffb0backed Yes | 39c | 81.5$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.71 | 159 | 39%62 W · 97 L | +14.4wins | +0.09per pick | 30cpaid | +28%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xfc8d…3257backed Yes | 26c | 80$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.2 | 210 | 24.3%51 W · 159 L | +6.5wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe47e…f8abbacked Yes | 43c | 79.62$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.38 | 240 | 66.3%159 W · 81 L | +13.5wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x83fe…23d9backed No | 64c | 77$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.22 | 327 | 60.6%198 W · 129 L | -4.4wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x07d9…9397backed No | 65c | 76.61$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.98 | 48 | 62.5%30 W · 18 L | +2.0wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa6b8…4bdfbacked Yes | 41c | 75.77$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.7 | 342 | 19.9%68 W · 274 L | +18.6wins | +0.05per pick | 14cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc215…c9bcbacked No | 69c | 75$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x64b0…ab64backed Yes | 42c | 74.17$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.92 | 294 | 59.5%175 W · 119 L | +20.7wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 56c | 72.11$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.13 | 12,879 | 20.4%2,624 W · 10,255 L | -2,688.9wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -65.5%equal weight | 27-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x3024…8ecebacked Yes | 15c | 71.41$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.92 | 172 | 37.2%64 W · 108 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb166…29bfbacked Yes | 23c | 70$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.9 | 33 | 18.2%6 W · 27 L | -4.6wins | -0.14per pick | 32cpaid | -57.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf967…1adfbacked No | 80c | 67.96$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.27 | 312 | 62.5%195 W · 117 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbe34…8ee7backed No | 50c | 65$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.31 | 163 | 55.2%90 W · 73 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7b6…8838backed No | 55c | 65$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.54 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfd…dfe7backed No | 52c | 63.77$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.38 | 999 | 61.8%617 W · 382 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b40…ced4backed Yes | 52c | 62$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.81 | 1,005 | 51.8%521 W · 484 L | +108.3wins | +0.11per pick | 41cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xc9b7…ac89backed No | 74c | 61$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.01 | 110 | 44.5%49 W · 61 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 61c | 60.44$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.87 | 860 | 50.9%438 W · 422 L | +29.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 72c | 60.42$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.41 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f9e…9ec0backed Yes | 36c | 60.26$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.69 | 90 | 46.7%42 W · 48 L | +5.7wins | +0.06per pick | 40cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc96c…b868backed No | 56c | 60$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.3 | 291 | 37.8%110 W · 181 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 24c | 59.84$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.48 | 7,231 | 9.3%675 W · 6,556 L | -1,115.6wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.8%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x5b11…2976backed No | 46c | 53.91$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 499 | 41.7%208 W · 291 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x47af…3999backed No | 67c | 53.35$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.74 | 326 | 52.1%170 W · 156 L | +7.6wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e6a…5192backed Yes | 39c | 51.91$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.91 | 87 | 40.2%35 W · 52 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +37.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1016…c866backed No | 75c | 51.67$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.64 | 39 | 74.4%29 W · 10 L | +6.3wins | +0.16per pick | 58cpaid | +50.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xca41…8486backed Yes | 43c | 49.39$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.39 | 79 | 39.2%31 W · 48 L | +3.6wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2205…8089backed No | 61c | 48.52$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.6 | 290 | 56.2%163 W · 127 L | -5.6wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2695…1cc4backed No | 79c | 48$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.01 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.79per pick | 79cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x358b…3722backed Yes | 49c | 45.88$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.38 | 528 | 33.3%176 W · 352 L | +23.3wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +28.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x677a…ca02backed No | 66c | 44.98$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.85 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.66per pick | 66cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 66c | 44.41$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.15 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 62c | 44.04$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.2 | 3,111 | 49.6%1,544 W · 1,567 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x861a…dde9backed No | 56c | 43$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.89 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3865…fcbebacked No | 60c | 41.67$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1,002 | 60.9%610 W · 392 L | -26.2wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xade1…9040backed Yes | 39c | 40.74$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.74 | 338 | 39.9%135 W · 203 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 38c | 40$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.8 | 4,014 | 35.6%1,428 W · 2,586 L | +41.7wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x80f5…2b27backed Yes | 29c | 40$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.25 | 314 | 42.4%133 W · 181 L | +15.2wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2032…e43ebacked Yes | 40c | 39.9$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.84 | 180 | 60%108 W · 72 L | -21.2wins | -0.12per pick | 72cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 38-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x59fe…14fdbacked No | 54c | 38.48$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.68 | 572 | 32.9%188 W · 384 L | -104.6wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 31-0.18 edge/pick |
| 0x4b40…96e3backed No | 57c | 38.04$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.69 | 522 | 45%235 W · 287 L | -13.2wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7cc8…2389backed No | 80c | 37.5$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 171 | 56.7%97 W · 74 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf245…1155backed No | 56c | 36$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0762…63a4backed No | 58c | 34.49$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.96 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -46.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a15…dfb4backed No | 57c | 33.22$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.91 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -0.8wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -55%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1614…3851backed No | 79c | 32.2$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.44 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.79per pick | 79cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb41c…b791backed Yes | 47c | 32.02$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.02 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5be9…bf5cbacked No | 63c | 31.25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.69 | 47 | 57.4%27 W · 20 L | -3.5wins | -0.07per pick | 65cpaid | -15%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6f9f…48e1backed No | 71c | 30$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.3 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0cc5…ee5abacked No | 70c | 28.57$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.70per pick | 70cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3718…663ebacked No | 67c | 28.17$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.87 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | -2.0wins | -0.08per pick | 63cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3c5a…022dbacked No | 54c | 26.36$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.23 | 23 | 26.1%6 W · 17 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b7b…e799backed No | 63c | 25.65$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.16 | 35 | 77.1%27 W · 8 L | +4.0wins | +0.12per pick | 66cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5bcf…503fbacked No | 63c | 25.48$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.05 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0832…8681backed No | 73c | 23$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.79 | 346 | 51.2%177 W · 169 L | -6.6wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf485…d5cebacked No | 72c | 20.83$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.72per pick | 72cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd9…5b04backed No | 62c | 20.42$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.66 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -4.6wins | -0.26per pick | 70cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x3cb7…1a88backed No | 69c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 999 | 49.5%495 W · 504 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x62df…1411backed No | 61c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.2 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.15per pick | 58cpaid | -35.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4df8…4005backed No | 52c | 19.42$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.1 | 108 | 41.7%45 W · 63 L | -3.8wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x63c9…80a2backed No | 74c | 18.92$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.74per pick | 74cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 21°C or higher on March 12?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on March 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on March 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 18°C on March 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 19°C on March 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 20°C on March 12?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.