Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 20°C on March 12?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xaecd2dfdc5d876f3a03c3457c27a5144e619fb5b11d60b77615d791b77f8d488
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $49,758
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $49,758 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 52 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9d1b…4f09backed Yes | 0c | 34,514$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.32 | 105 | 37.1%39 W · 66 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad13…7ed6backed No | 59c | 584.17$342 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$242.19 | 919 | 67%616 W · 303 L | -10.6wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 41c | 571.16$235 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$235.42 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5b11…2976backed Yes | 5c | 545.53$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.61 | 499 | 41.7%208 W · 291 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7d72…8e62backed Yes | 10c | 400$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 1,817 | 8.1%148 W · 1,669 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1600…9236backed Yes | 40c | 243.57$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.99 | 354 | 32.5%115 W · 239 L | +9.2wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffb…119dbacked No | 50c | 189.48$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.43 | 430 | 21.9%94 W · 336 L | +22.0wins | +0.05per pick | 17cpaid | +34.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x91d9…141dbacked No | 60c | 176.53$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.14 | 1,256 | 38.2%480 W · 776 L | +53.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd98d…1179backed Yes | 41c | 155$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.18 | 232 | 31%72 W · 160 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc96c…b868backed Yes | 56c | 146.98$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.31 | 291 | 37.8%110 W · 181 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 62c | 107.6$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.91 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f88…da69backed Yes | 48c | 100$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 179 | 49.2%88 W · 91 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 61c | 97.63$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.31 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf37…993fbacked No | 41c | 97.27$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.36 | 656 | 25.8%169 W · 487 L | -13.2wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa96a…1377backed No | 59c | 97.22$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.59 | 541 | 43.6%236 W · 305 L | -12.9wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeeec…a723backed No | 54c | 96.41$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.17 | 34 | 52.9%18 W · 16 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3144…9076backed Yes | 54c | 92.59$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | -3.0wins | -0.19per pick | 75cpaid | -26%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 23c | 91.28$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.98 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x861b…d8cabacked Yes | 41c | 90.49$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 18 | 11.1%2 W · 16 L | -3.8wins | -0.21per pick | 32cpaid | -65%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb537…14ccbacked No | 57c | 87.72$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.72 | 414 | 60.1%249 W · 165 L | -21.5wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9f9e…9ec0backed Yes | 39c | 87.43$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.07 | 90 | 46.7%42 W · 48 L | +5.7wins | +0.06per pick | 40cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 58c | 86.95$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.39 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf64a…db74backed Yes | 43c | 64.12$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.88 | 333 | 49.8%166 W · 167 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc9b7…ac89backed No | 60c | 64$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.6 | 110 | 44.5%49 W · 61 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3319…977abacked Yes | 25c | 60$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 264 | 26.9%71 W · 193 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb31d…b920backed Yes | 52c | 57.78$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 180 | 35%63 W · 117 L | -5.5wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b1f…9ff2backed Yes | 50c | 55.45$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 323 | 52.9%171 W · 152 L | +19.6wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9e6a…5192backed Yes | 28c | 53.57$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 87 | 40.2%35 W · 52 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +37.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc550…dbe8backed Yes | 40c | 50.55$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 43 | 53.5%23 W · 20 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +11%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca41…8486backed Yes | 40c | 50.22$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 79 | 39.2%31 W · 48 L | +3.6wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x80f5…2b27backed Yes | 42c | 45$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.9 | 314 | 42.4%133 W · 181 L | +15.2wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 25c | 44.67$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.99 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf36…ffb0backed Yes | 28c | 42.59$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 159 | 39%62 W · 97 L | +14.4wins | +0.09per pick | 30cpaid | +28%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x26ed…49a5backed Yes | 48c | 41.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +97.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 44c | 40.85$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.81 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x2032…e43ebacked Yes | 31c | 40$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.28 | 180 | 60%108 W · 72 L | -21.2wins | -0.12per pick | 72cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 38-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xebb1…e7afbacked Yes | 33c | 40$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 575 | 45%259 W · 316 L | +26.6wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +13%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 56c | 38.49$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.06 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe9b7…8030backed Yes | 33c | 38.48$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.7 | 125 | 64.8%81 W · 44 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xade1…9040backed Yes | 34c | 38.24$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 338 | 39.9%135 W · 203 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2698…2941backed No | 50c | 36.11$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.14 | 1,011 | 61.2%619 W · 392 L | +14.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3865…fcbebacked No | 75c | 33.25$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.26 | 1,002 | 60.9%610 W · 392 L | -26.2wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b4c…efa9backed Yes | 48c | 31.32$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 122 | 30.3%37 W · 85 L | -11.5wins | -0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xaaed…c618backed Yes | 40c | 31.22$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1bfc…98e0backed Yes | 35c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 34 | 8.8%3 W · 31 L | -4.2wins | -0.12per pick | 21cpaid | -76.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x299a…9e6fbacked No | 56c | 27.23$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.09 | 30 | 33.3%10 W · 20 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe9da…ed70backed No | 61c | 23.52$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.17 | 763 | 71.4%545 W · 218 L | +11.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0762…63a4backed No | 46c | 23.32$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -46.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd9…5b04backed No | 62c | 22.92$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.71 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -4.6wins | -0.26per pick | 70cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x4df8…4005backed No | 66c | 15.26$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.19 | 108 | 41.7%45 W · 63 L | -3.8wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ced…7ce8backed No | 67c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.95 | 137 | 48.2%66 W · 71 L | +3.7wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f5d…3384backed No | 67c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 282 | 70.2%198 W · 84 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 70cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 20°C on March 12?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on March 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on March 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 18°C on March 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 19°C on March 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 21°C or higher on March 12?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.