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Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Munich be 25°C on August 26?

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$9,227
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$11,230

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,227 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 18 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet's whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x0bd4…f2febacked Yes8c594.67$47 inLost-$46.5313127.5%36 W · 95 L+2.2wins+0.02per pick26cpaid+13.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x0458…ddc2backed Yes3c592.23$15 inLost-$14.815930.5%18 W · 41 L+6.0wins+0.10per pick20cpaid+35.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x78ed…ab3abacked Yes18c327.38$59 inLost-$58.741226.5%109 W · 303 L-6.3wins-0.02per pick28cpaid-15.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x69f5…6d8dbacked Yes6c297.98$17 inLost-$16.73190%0 W · 19 L-2.5wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x7c63…93d4backed Yes15c238.27$36 inLost-$35.9610,95237.4%4,094 W · 6,858 L+432.6wins+0.04per pick33cpaid+16%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x09b4…e56dbacked Yes19c208.35$39 inLost-$38.7482742.8%354 W · 473 L+28.8wins+0.03per pick39cpaid+25.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xb576…d959backed Yes7c189.99$13 inLost-$12.710033%33 W · 67 L-6.0wins-0.06per pick39cpaid-28%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x28ea…7367backed No79c188.77$149 inWon+$39.582,20162.2%1,370 W · 831 L-0.5wins0.00per pick62cpaid+0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe9b1…79d7backed No78c104.89$82 inWon+$22.5891773.2%671 W · 246 L+20.0wins+0.02per pick71cpaid+1.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbb9f…557bbacked Yes20c98.92$20 inLost-$19.8874323.3%173 W · 570 L-34.7wins-0.05per pick28cpaid-45.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x30fb…7db4backed Yes19c82.86$15 inLost-$15.484,73947.5%2,249 W · 2,490 L-186.8wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-13%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x830b…c771backed Yes21c60$12 inLost-$12.492630.8%8 W · 18 L+1.7wins+0.07per pick24cpaid+47.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xbbb7…a11abacked No80c50$40 inWon+$10.051,48857.3%853 W · 635 L+46.0wins+0.03per pick54cpaid+5.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6b67…8c99backed No78c45.84$36 inWon+$9.993778.4%29 W · 8 L+2.9wins+0.08per pick71cpaid+11%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x6a8d…50f9backed No72c35.71$26 inWon+$1010,04444.8%4,500 W · 5,544 L+257.5wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+11.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfd8e…aea4backed No80c30$24 inWon+$62,43479.4%1,933 W · 501 L+99.7wins+0.04per pick75cpaid+5.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x46f7…ded2backed No80c21.8$17 inWon+$4.4417262.8%108 W · 64 L+14.9wins+0.09per pick54cpaid+17.7%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x599f…3317backed No75c20$15 inWon+$512878.1%100 W · 28 L+4.0wins+0.03per pick75cpaid+4.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80.
  • The position was at least $10.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.