Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 27°C on August 26?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf665befa40d3aa25ddeee20d4c0dae34195bb070db8c31d2264c3ba8e5146e56
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,097
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,777
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,097 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 88 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x09b4…e56dbacked No | 65c | 980.2$639 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$340.91 | 827 | 42.8%354 W · 473 L | +28.8wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +25.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1a81…6cf9backed Yes | 43c | 881.35$375 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$375.03 | 172 | 24.4%42 W · 130 L | +3.9wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 46c | 535.55$246 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$289.84 | 1,901 | 55.9%1,062 W · 839 L | -33.7wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 57c | 514.54$292 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$222.95 | 4,739 | 47.5%2,249 W · 2,490 L | -186.8wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -13%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x081e…1e4ebacked Yes | 65c | 458.36$298 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$297.73 | 336 | 46.4%156 W · 180 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x14ad…69f5backed Yes | 31c | 322.58$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 290 | 43.8%127 W · 163 L | -4.7wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd90…4bfcbacked Yes | 49c | 317.08$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.66 | 621 | 46.2%287 W · 334 L | +40.0wins | +0.06per pick | 40cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked No | 10c | 301.13$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$271.83 | 2,362 | 20.6%486 W · 1,876 L | -63.1wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfb…decbbacked Yes | 69c | 291.44$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 181 | 45.3%82 W · 99 L | -4.4wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8ddb…6a89backed Yes | 58c | 211.77$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.57 | 431 | 53.1%229 W · 202 L | +25.6wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9f…557bbacked No | 53c | 205.3$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.1 | 743 | 23.3%173 W · 570 L | -34.7wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 59c | 189.5$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.81 | 2,439 | 58%1,414 W · 1,025 L | -13.4wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8958…656dbacked No | 30c | 187.59$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.41 | 138 | 61.6%85 W · 53 L | +4.4wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x95d3…6effbacked Yes | 26c | 171.53$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.43 | 535 | 48.2%258 W · 277 L | +21.6wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 25c | 168.49$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.51 | 1,936 | 38.1%737 W · 1,199 L | +296.8wins | +0.15per pick | 23cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 31c | 164$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.84 | 5,255 | 49.8%2,618 W · 2,637 L | -163.8wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 35c | 143$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.89 | 5,836 | 60%3,502 W · 2,334 L | -112.4wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e6f…8cfcbacked Yes | 41c | 134.7$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.7 | 218 | 33%72 W · 146 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b40…ced4backed No | 16c | 134.19$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.15 | 1,014 | 51.6%523 W · 491 L | +108.5wins | +0.11per pick | 41cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…e9f8backed Yes | 61c | 131.15$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 1,156 | 31.1%359 W · 797 L | -38.8wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb663…c7d4backed Yes | 77c | 130.81$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.71 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -1.2wins | -0.09per pick | 48cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ca1…fc25backed Yes | 49c | 127.23$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.37 | 54 | 31.5%17 W · 37 L | -2.5wins | -0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 40c | 125$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.65 | 5,489 | 56%3,075 W · 2,414 L | -123.4wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8bb0…c328backed No | 46c | 120.98$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.39 | 49 | 49%24 W · 25 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 56c | 120.48$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.96 | 5,625 | 47.8%2,687 W · 2,938 L | +76.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d69…7a63backed Yes | 31c | 120$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.2 | 1,314 | 54%709 W · 605 L | -26.1wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32a7…a84bbacked Yes | 51c | 119.98$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.3 | 260 | 38.5%100 W · 160 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa2ff…6ab4backed No | 55c | 111.64$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.24 | 55 | 67.3%37 W · 18 L | +2.6wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 38c | 107.68$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.68 | 4,442 | 53.7%2,387 W · 2,055 L | -17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x122c…fbedbacked No | 22c | 106.15$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.32 | 1,067 | 50.7%541 W · 526 L | +29.2wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x18ae…314cbacked Yes | 50c | 96$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 1,246 | 30%374 W · 872 L | -6.6wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a56…be30backed No | 50c | 92.24$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.12 | 499 | 51.7%258 W · 241 L | +20.0wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd322…8503backed No | 46c | 87.97$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.66 | 141 | 54.6%77 W · 64 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6546…04e1backed Yes | 45c | 86.68$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 414 | 43.2%179 W · 235 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 51c | 86.64$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.84 | 12,975 | 20.5%2,666 W · 10,309 L | -2,698.0wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -65.3%equal weight | 27-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xc847…33f6backed No | 46c | 85.71$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.28 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3e0b…0020backed Yes | 48c | 85.38$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.57 | 400 | 30.3%121 W · 279 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 20c | 81.53$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.3 | 2,295 | 59.3%1,360 W · 935 L | +118.2wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x74dd…2131backed No | 23c | 76.85$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.49 | 111 | 15.3%17 W · 94 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0018…83a4backed No | 27c | 72.74$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.74 | 76 | 30.3%23 W · 53 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 16c | 71.93$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.12 | 2,286 | 57.3%1,309 W · 977 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 24c | 70.83$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.83 | 2,201 | 56.8%1,250 W · 951 L | +69.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed No | 23c | 69.95$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.07 | 1,569 | 16.3%255 W · 1,314 L | +22.4wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed Yes | 30c | 66.5$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.03 | 6,905 | 53.1%3,666 W · 3,239 L | +422.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x90e0…6307backed Yes | 50c | 65.57$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.8 | 32 | 37.5%12 W · 20 L | -4.6wins | -0.14per pick | 52cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0a0c…a853backed Yes | 22c | 65.2$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.34 | 2,467 | 35.7%880 W · 1,587 L | +24.6wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa328…4977backed No | 51c | 63.99$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.36 | 886 | 60.7%538 W · 348 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2753…e28abacked Yes | 49c | 63.74$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.23 | 447 | 60%268 W · 179 L | +18.9wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 66c | 60.86$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.82 | 5,003 | 53.5%2,678 W · 2,325 L | +31.9wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 52c | 60$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.65 | 2,176 | 53.1%1,156 W · 1,020 L | +36.0wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x830b…c771backed Yes | 27c | 60$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 26 | 30.8%8 W · 18 L | +1.7wins | +0.07per pick | 24cpaid | +47.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6046…3f9dbacked Yes | 25c | 60$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 467 | 36.8%172 W · 295 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked Yes | 53c | 57.04$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.41 | 2,340 | 58.7%1,373 W · 967 L | -4.1wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4708…9580backed Yes | 32c | 54.93$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.58 | 175 | 38.9%68 W · 107 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f1d…56a3backed No | 52c | 54.47$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.32 | 66 | 51.5%34 W · 32 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb7ec…3a46backed No | 20c | 52.51$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.02 | 24 | 8.3%2 W · 22 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 14cpaid | -49.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8845…360ebacked No | 65c | 50$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.5 | 195 | 35.9%70 W · 125 L | -39.3wins | -0.20per pick | 56cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 30-0.18 edge/pick |
| 0x50f4…b9ebbacked Yes | 25c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x70d2…0395backed No | 46c | 45.22$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.22 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed No | 58c | 44.56$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.86 | 1,697 | 52.5%891 W · 806 L | -42.5wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 45c | 40.37$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.04 | 4,467 | 65.1%2,907 W · 1,560 L | +14.9wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x81fe…80ecbacked No | 50c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 57 | 56.1%32 W · 25 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 60cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x53fb…e92abacked Yes | 60c | 40$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 170 | 58.8%100 W · 70 L | -7.4wins | -0.04per pick | 63cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb576…d959backed Yes | 59c | 40$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.6 | 100 | 33%33 W · 67 L | -6.0wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -28%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0022…c966backed No | 74c | 40$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.6 | 52 | 69.2%36 W · 16 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 67cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93f7…c133backed Yes | 77c | 39.91$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.7 | 216 | 56%121 W · 95 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa397…7817backed Yes | 51c | 39.37$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 202 | 55.4%112 W · 90 L | +12.7wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…4420backed No | 38c | 38.39$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.97 | 997 | 57.2%570 W · 427 L | +6.0wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 47c | 36.07$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.12 | 9,962 | 45.9%4,572 W · 5,390 L | -309.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x35fc…ac54backed Yes | 49c | 35.55$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.27 | 290 | 51.4%149 W · 141 L | +25.4wins | +0.09per pick | 43cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0fb4…c6d7backed No | 34c | 35.28$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.28 | 523 | 47.6%249 W · 274 L | -5.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa33d…3ef2backed Yes | 34c | 32.5$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 533 | 73.7%393 W · 140 L | +36.8wins | +0.07per pick | 67cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1fb1…a2d2backed Yes | 50c | 30.38$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.2 | 34 | 44.1%15 W · 19 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x754b…d06abacked Yes | 49c | 30.27$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.83 | 245 | 70.6%173 W · 72 L | +22.3wins | +0.09per pick | 62cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf361…08f6backed No | 50c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 99 | 59.6%59 W · 40 L | +4.4wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6b67…8c99backed No | 63c | 27.36$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.18 | 37 | 78.4%29 W · 8 L | +2.9wins | +0.08per pick | 71cpaid | +11%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed Yes | 80c | 26.78$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.4 | 2,233 | 56%1,250 W · 983 L | +47.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d8c…3e30backed Yes | 79c | 26.27$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.75 | 162 | 52.5%85 W · 77 L | -14.5wins | -0.09per pick | 61cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb699…4e20backed Yes | 52c | 25$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 237 | 50.2%119 W · 118 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1585…5839backed Yes | 63c | 23.45$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.72 | 106 | 58.5%62 W · 44 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5aad…dc28backed Yes | 56c | 22.88$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.84 | 722 | 33.4%241 W · 481 L | +32.9wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x54ab…c8dfbacked Yes | 49c | 22.16$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.82 | 53 | 41.5%22 W · 31 L | +2.6wins | +0.05per pick | 37cpaid | +20.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xab5c…c6f3backed No | 49c | 20.41$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.41 | 44 | 54.5%24 W · 20 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdaeb…0d2fbacked Yes | 51c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.25 | 550 | 26.9%148 W · 402 L | -66.5wins | -0.12per pick | 39cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xf2f2…d1f0backed No | 65c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 52 | 48.1%25 W · 27 L | -8.6wins | -0.17per pick | 65cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xa600…19c4backed No | 79c | 19$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.99 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -2.0wins | -0.14per pick | 57cpaid | -37.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xea12…993bbacked Yes | 69c | 16.79$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.58 | 152 | 46.1%70 W · 82 L | -19.9wins | -0.13per pick | 59cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x97d8…0a12backed Yes | 79c | 15.68$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.43 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 69cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 27°C on August 26?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 24°C on August 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 25°C on August 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 26°C on August 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 28°C on August 26?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.