Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 26°C on August 26?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x62eca1fa95cee50bd283b48ec776dc36e8a17dfea99398d76ea8679ba48f26a4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,798
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,975
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,798 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 71 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1a81…6cf9backed Yes | 33c | 899.46$297 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$297.19 | 172 | 24.4%42 W · 130 L | +3.9wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0458…ddc2backed Yes | 10c | 778.55$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.08 | 59 | 30.5%18 W · 41 L | +6.0wins | +0.10per pick | 20cpaid | +35.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0bd4…f2febacked Yes | 30c | 364$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.2 | 131 | 27.5%36 W · 95 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 68c | 299.78$204 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.66 | 4,739 | 47.5%2,249 W · 2,490 L | -186.8wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -13%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x081e…1e4ebacked Yes | 27c | 257.99$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.8 | 336 | 46.4%156 W · 180 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 67c | 201.95$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.64 | 5,255 | 49.8%2,618 W · 2,637 L | -163.8wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 73c | 196.39$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.42 | 1,901 | 55.9%1,062 W · 839 L | -33.7wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x09b4…e56dbacked No | 74c | 195$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.7 | 827 | 42.8%354 W · 473 L | +28.8wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +25.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed No | 77c | 183.36$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.43 | 484 | 36.6%177 W · 307 L | -24.3wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed No | 71c | 181.3$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.1 | 1,697 | 52.5%891 W · 806 L | -42.5wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc16…ef14backed Yes | 28c | 178.15$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 64 | 31.3%20 W · 44 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -17%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x95d3…6effbacked Yes | 38c | 174$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.12 | 535 | 48.2%258 W · 277 L | +21.6wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed No | 60c | 165.03$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.58 | 2,201 | 62.2%1,370 W · 831 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe630…ef20backed No | 75c | 155.05$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.21 | 352 | 83.8%295 W · 57 L | +39.0wins | +0.11per pick | 73cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x9c95…52dbbacked No | 71c | 151$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.22 | 189 | 47.6%90 W · 99 L | +11.6wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +20.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 79c | 143$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.5 | 5,836 | 60%3,502 W · 2,334 L | -112.4wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5fc1…647abacked Yes | 8c | 135$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 632 | 47.3%299 W · 333 L | -9.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb576…d959backed Yes | 23c | 130$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.8 | 100 | 33%33 W · 67 L | -6.0wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -28%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcaf5…41abbacked Yes | 25c | 103.84$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.96 | 480 | 39.8%191 W · 289 L | +31.7wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3e0b…0020backed Yes | 35c | 100.38$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.44 | 400 | 30.3%121 W · 279 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x35fb…8511backed Yes | 25c | 100$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.9 | 269 | 35.7%96 W · 173 L | +6.1wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd322…8503backed No | 71c | 100$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.92 | 141 | 54.6%77 W · 64 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 73c | 97.68$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.77 | 4,442 | 53.7%2,387 W · 2,055 L | -17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d04…6298backed Yes | 16c | 91.58$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 69c | 87.59$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.31 | 5,625 | 47.8%2,687 W · 2,938 L | +76.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c43…1608backed No | 62c | 80.98$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.77 | 38 | 65.8%25 W · 13 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 68cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8958…656dbacked No | 77c | 80.59$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.54 | 138 | 61.6%85 W · 53 L | +4.4wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed Yes | 25c | 76.16$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 3,649 | 53.2%1,943 W · 1,706 L | +83.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 74c | 75$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.2 | 5,489 | 56%3,075 W · 2,414 L | -123.4wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d60…a7a5backed Yes | 28c | 67.92$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.25 | 588 | 50.9%299 W · 289 L | +10.8wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7fad…242fbacked No | 77c | 65.08$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.08 | 26 | 69.2%18 W · 8 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 67cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6546…04e1backed Yes | 39c | 64.69$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 414 | 43.2%179 W · 235 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa328…4977backed No | 65c | 63.98$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.28 | 886 | 60.7%538 W · 348 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa054…a95dbacked No | 73c | 63.78$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.94 | 413 | 66.6%275 W · 138 L | +36.5wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +21.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 71c | 63.38$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.38 | 10,044 | 44.8%4,500 W · 5,544 L | +257.5wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 35c | 62$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.55 | 4,032 | 35.6%1,436 W · 2,596 L | +42.8wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a43…26babacked Yes | 30c | 60$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.7 | 114 | 44.7%51 W · 63 L | +3.5wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfca6…6595backed Yes | 24c | 58.47$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.06 | 120 | 64.2%77 W · 43 L | +3.9wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked Yes | 23c | 57.96$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.15 | 3,139 | 49.6%1,558 W · 1,581 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb7…a11abacked No | 61c | 55$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.2 | 1,488 | 57.3%853 W · 635 L | +46.0wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc3…b0aebacked Yes | 24c | 55$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.45 | 967 | 33.3%322 W · 645 L | +27.8wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f3e…5337backed Yes | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.81 | 855 | 48.7%416 W · 439 L | +9.3wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x50f4…b9ebbacked Yes | 28c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e6f…8cfcbacked Yes | 40c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 218 | 33%72 W · 146 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8845…360ebacked Yes | 40c | 49.8$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.9 | 195 | 35.9%70 W · 125 L | -39.3wins | -0.20per pick | 56cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 30-0.18 edge/pick |
| 0x40cd…a73bbacked No | 78c | 41.32$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.09 | 18 | 72.2%13 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 70cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 74c | 40.75$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.77 | 6,905 | 53.1%3,666 W · 3,239 L | +422.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 72c | 40.39$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.22 | 4,467 | 65.1%2,907 W · 1,560 L | +14.9wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd886…1746backed Yes | 40c | 40$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 90 | 55.6%50 W · 40 L | -6.5wins | -0.07per pick | 63cpaid | -12%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 36c | 40$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.25 | 4,009 | 47.3%1,897 W · 2,112 L | +71.3wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x788a…db1fbacked No | 76c | 37.95$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.99 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xde0a…004ebacked No | 72c | 35.99$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.08 | 338 | 67.8%229 W · 109 L | -5.4wins | -0.02per pick | 69cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e20…dddcbacked Yes | 40c | 35.73$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.29 | 439 | 47.6%209 W · 230 L | -16.8wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 64c | 35.37$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.61 | 12,545 | 46.9%5,879 W · 6,666 L | -39.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 72c | 33.41$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.35 | 3,810 | 65.8%2,508 W · 1,302 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda91…d760backed Yes | 34c | 30$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 1,023 | 40.1%410 W · 613 L | +15.3wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x170c…5e29backed No | 71c | 28$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.12 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.19per pick | 48cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd9fe…db0dbacked No | 73c | 26.51$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.22 | 169 | 58.6%99 W · 70 L | -6.5wins | -0.04per pick | 62cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 64c | 25$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.1 | 2,176 | 53.1%1,156 W · 1,020 L | +36.0wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 66c | 25$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.5 | 3,126 | 61.8%1,931 W · 1,195 L | -30.6wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec6f…b34fbacked No | 61c | 24$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.36 | 142 | 62.7%89 W · 53 L | +4.9wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21ef…91fdbacked No | 77c | 23.67$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.44 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 74cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 71c | 22.53$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.51 | 2,233 | 56%1,250 W · 983 L | +47.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9f…557bbacked No | 68c | 20.54$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.58 | 743 | 23.3%173 W · 570 L | -34.7wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x46f7…ded2backed No | 61c | 20.18$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.78 | 172 | 62.8%108 W · 64 L | +14.9wins | +0.09per pick | 54cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 78c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.4 | 2,189 | 59.7%1,306 W · 883 L | +26.7wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc17…886abacked No | 72c | 18.41$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.13 | 83 | 80.7%67 W · 16 L | +9.2wins | +0.11per pick | 70cpaid | +16%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 74c | 17.78$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.6 | 2,286 | 57.3%1,309 W · 977 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a2c…2262backed No | 75c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.75 | 23 | 60.9%14 W · 9 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 70c | 14.71$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.46 | 2,223 | 56.1%1,247 W · 976 L | +54.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 74c | 14.15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.71 | 2,295 | 59.3%1,360 W · 935 L | +118.2wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 26°C on August 26?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 24°C on August 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 25°C on August 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 27°C on August 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 28°C on August 26?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.