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Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Munich be 28°C on August 26?

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$14,559
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$15,127

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,559 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 34 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet's whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x7300…e52cbacked No4c1,521$65 inLost-$64.952,36220.6%486 W · 1,876 L-63.1wins-0.03per pick23cpaid-26.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1a81…6cf9backed Yes16c743.04$116 inWon+$626.7417224.4%42 W · 130 L+3.9wins+0.02per pick22cpaid+6.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7c63…93d4backed Yes12c492.83$61 inWon+$431.9910,95237.4%4,094 W · 6,858 L+432.6wins+0.04per pick33cpaid+16%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xcd90…4bfcbacked Yes15c459.75$70 inWon+$389.5362146.2%287 W · 334 L+40.0wins+0.06per pick40cpaid+14.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x0bd4…f2febacked Yes4c370.18$14 inWon+$355.7213127.5%36 W · 95 L+2.2wins+0.02per pick26cpaid+13.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x044f…d1f1backed Yes13c362.5$46 inWon+$316.318,33749.2%4,098 W · 4,239 L+271.5wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+6.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes6c344.71$21 inWon+$324.081,56916.3%255 W · 1,314 L+22.4wins+0.01per pick15cpaid+13.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x8ddb…6a89backed Yes10c248.5$26 inWon+$222.8443153.1%229 W · 202 L+25.6wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+11.2%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x6bee…7e78backed Yes9c197.92$18 inWon+$180.111,11923.7%265 W · 854 L+74.2wins+0.07per pick17cpaid+15%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x8958…656dbacked No78c195.85$152 inLost-$152.4813861.6%85 W · 53 L+4.4wins+0.03per pick58cpaid+3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x74dd…2131backed Yes10c187.07$18 inWon+$169.0611115.3%17 W · 94 L+2.6wins+0.02per pick13cpaid-5.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd487…5f32backed Yes15c180.67$26 inWon+$154.228746%40 W · 47 L+5.8wins+0.07per pick39cpaid+29.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x5aad…dc28backed Yes13c168.64$22 inWon+$146.8372233.4%241 W · 481 L+32.9wins+0.05per pick29cpaid+14.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x32a7…a84bbacked Yes19c163.85$31 inWon+$132.8726038.5%100 W · 160 L+1.1wins0.00per pick38cpaid-3.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xca1f…d282backed Yes13c156$20 inWon+$135.721,82662.9%1,149 W · 677 L-8.1wins0.00per pick63cpaid+1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0a0c…a853backed Yes11c136.36$15 inWon+$121.782,46735.7%880 W · 1,587 L+24.6wins+0.01per pick35cpaid+6.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2ae3…372abacked Yes12c134.12$16 inWon+$118.4318157.5%104 W · 77 L+7.7wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+5.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0458…ddc2backed Yes11c130.95$15 inWon+$115.945930.5%18 W · 41 L+6.0wins+0.10per pick20cpaid+35.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x5a21…9318backed Yes61c128.56$78 inWon+$50.526,90553.1%3,666 W · 3,239 L+422.0wins+0.06per pick47cpaid-6.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xbb9f…557bbacked Yes16c126.59$20 inWon+$106.9474323.3%173 W · 570 L-34.7wins-0.05per pick28cpaid-45.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xa9b7…f43cbacked Yes14c115.82$16 inWon+$99.9560032%192 W · 408 L-5.8wins-0.01per pick33cpaid-11.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xabb2…553bbacked No13c112.61$14 inLost-$14.220%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf5bd…eaa7backed Yes15c95.38$14 inWon+$81.384240.5%17 W · 25 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick39cpaid+9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1abc…45e7backed No74c93.86$69 inLost-$69.012,25458.2%1,311 W · 943 L+84.7wins+0.04per pick54cpaid-0.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed No42c81.21$34 inLost-$33.8112,97520.5%2,666 W · 10,309 L-2,698.0wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-65.3%equal weight27-0.21 edge/pick
0x5fc1…647abacked Yes16c63$10 inWon+$52.9263247.3%299 W · 333 L-9.0wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-4.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x82df…0f66backed Yes42c42.7$18 inWon+$24.947889.7%70 W · 8 L+28.3wins+0.36per pick53cpaid+106.3%equal weight81+0.28 edge/pick
0x501c…4d6dbacked Yes53c40$21 inWon+$1915066%99 W · 51 L+18.9wins+0.13per pick53cpaid+28.7%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x159f…bc63backed No30c37.05$11 inLost-$113551.4%18 W · 17 L-3.1wins-0.09per pick60cpaid-13.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No79c32$25 inLost-$25.285,19368.3%3,546 W · 1,647 L+70.8wins+0.01per pick67cpaid+2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xa0ae…4a1ebacked No63c31.5$20 inLost-$19.8813852.2%72 W · 66 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-11.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc31f…f04abacked Yes70c21.25$15 inWon+$6.39683.3%80 W · 16 L+20.8wins+0.22per pick62cpaid+55.6%equal weight69+0.17 edge/pick
0xb2e4…b7f1backed No69c19.97$14 inLost-$13.882,22356.1%1,247 W · 976 L+54.7wins+0.02per pick54cpaid-5.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6046…3f9dbacked No79c18.98$15 inLost-$14.9946736.8%172 W · 295 L+1.5wins0.00per pick37cpaid-2.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80.
  • The position was at least $10.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.