MLB · resolved market
Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6b68a644f9045973ad2ee416151104a32e17c2ebb966bf79ba2c917abdf33ebc
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Texas Rangersof Texas Rangers, Kansas City Royals
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,281
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,281 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Kansas City Royals | 0c | 2,815$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.59 | 392 | 9.4%37 W · 355 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -40.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3e04…564dbacked Texas Rangers | 47c | 385.04$183 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$202.53 | 981 | 49.8%489 W · 492 L | -12.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Texas Rangers | 62c | 367.59$227 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.45 | 2,389 | 43.4%1,037 W · 1,352 L | -25.4wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6027…4320backed Kansas City Royals | 57c | 361$206 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$205.77 | 840 | 49.4%415 W · 425 L | +8.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed Kansas City Royals | 53c | 360.74$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189.75 | 408 | 46.1%188 W · 220 L | -10.2wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1683…6906backed Texas Rangers | 45c | 280$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152.78 | 37 | 35.1%13 W · 24 L | -5.4wins | -0.15per pick | 50cpaid | -29%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xeab6…d4c6backed Texas Rangers | 49c | 228.73$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.96 | 107 | 44.9%48 W · 59 L | +4.6wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x04ec…8ac9backed Texas Rangers | 43c | 215.69$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.09 | 688 | 46.8%322 W · 366 L | +9.1wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd727…eccebacked Texas Rangers | 45c | 200$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110 | 3,291 | 46.2%1,521 W · 1,770 L | +20.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x05e0…e2cbbacked Kansas City Royals | 55c | 181.8$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 112 | 44.6%50 W · 62 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ecb…7645backed Texas Rangers | 41c | 158.83$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.38 | 447 | 45.6%204 W · 243 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xecfc…cd05backed Kansas City Royals | 51c | 149$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.99 | 205 | 48.3%99 W · 106 L | -5.3wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8a3d…316cbacked Kansas City Royals | 56c | 140$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.4 | 722 | 47.6%344 W · 378 L | -12.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x56a8…3639backed Texas Rangers | 45c | 111$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.05 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.55per pick | 45cpaid | +122.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Kansas City Royals | 41c | 109.71$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.5 | 1,865 | 52%970 W · 895 L | +50.8wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Kansas City Royals | 52c | 99.4$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.01 | 465 | 47.1%219 W · 246 L | +5.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb6fc…b24ebacked Kansas City Royals | 61c | 87.98$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.34 | 473 | 45.7%216 W · 257 L | +2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Kansas City Royals | 14c | 87.93$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.31 | 1,911 | 53.1%1,014 W · 897 L | +43.0wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed Kansas City Royals | 49c | 65.32$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.01 | 1,284 | 49.5%635 W · 649 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9450…d9e6backed Kansas City Royals | 54c | 61.22$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.06 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +1.0wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x14e4…eabbbacked Kansas City Royals | 54c | 60.6$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.72 | 509 | 49.5%252 W · 257 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84f7…ade1backed Kansas City Royals | 49c | 57$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.93 | 310 | 38.4%119 W · 191 L | +9.7wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +28.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28dc…a1f2backed Kansas City Royals | 58c | 51.72$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -2.0wins | -0.22per pick | 55cpaid | -50.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked Kansas City Royals | 51c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.4 | 873 | 70.1%612 W · 261 L | +91.6wins | +0.10per pick | 60cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x9c4d…168cbacked Texas Rangers | 48c | 40$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.8 | 832 | 48%399 W · 433 L | +20.0wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb01d…46f0backed Texas Rangers | 49c | 37.59$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.17 | 1,167 | 49%572 W · 595 L | +17.8wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x81c0…8b96backed Texas Rangers | 41c | 35$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.5 | 17 | 82.4%14 W · 3 L | +3.9wins | +0.23per pick | 60cpaid | +43.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x73a2…3b68backed Kansas City Royals | 46c | 29$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.28 | 81 | 54.3%44 W · 37 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1624…bf63backed Texas Rangers | 73c | 14.42$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.94 | 230 | 36.1%83 W · 147 L | -11.2wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.