Fifa International · resolved market
Will the method of victory for the 2026 FIFA World Cup Final be Spain Win: Regular Time?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6b6d98ac17c40d4264ccab08ef1681c6594ff62df94a9bf3fc35d9e1db78e3d0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $2,324
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $1,983
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,324 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 20 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2e62…b22ebacked No | 60c | 382.54$231 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151.71 | 216 | 30.1%65 W · 151 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2456…694dbacked Yes | 44c | 229.39$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.34per pick | 41cpaid | +221.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x962e…3c2dbacked Yes | 35c | 166.6$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.31 | 36 | 50%18 W · 18 L | -1.9wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -13%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed Yes | 44c | 137.96$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.72 | 792 | 31.1%246 W · 546 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x090a…0fa6backed No | 57c | 135.43$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.17 | 179 | 53.6%96 W · 83 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9163…82aebacked No | 59c | 99.99$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41 | 73 | 19.2%14 W · 59 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1980…f132backed Yes | 44c | 74.19$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.64 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 26c | 70.63$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.15 | 221 | 25.8%57 W · 164 L | -10.0wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -47.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 60c | 60$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 140 | 55.7%78 W · 62 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a63…2eb3backed No | 65c | 46.15$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.15 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -44.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3144…9502backed Yes | 44c | 42.7$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.79 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | -2.7wins | -0.10per pick | 54cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 45c | 40.68$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.19 | 8,614 | 29.2%2,518 W · 6,096 L | -166.6wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4d1f…6465backed Yes | 35c | 40.45$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.16 | 136 | 41.2%56 W · 80 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f79…d807backed Yes | 44c | 35.2$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.49 | 129 | 52.7%68 W · 61 L | +6.2wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 56c | 34.93$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.37 | 208 | 62%129 W · 79 L | +6.5wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 60c | 29.57$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.83 | 39 | 53.8%21 W · 18 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x633e…d305backed Yes | 44c | 23.83$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.47 | 383 | 29.8%114 W · 269 L | -9.5wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 60c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 460 | 47.2%217 W · 243 L | -6.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb1ce…5bfebacked No | 60c | 19.15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.66 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6daa…954abacked No | 60c | 17.45$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.98 | 124 | 28.2%35 W · 89 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the method of victory for the 2026 FIFA World Cup Final be Spain Win: Regular Time?this page
- Will the method of victory for the 2026 FIFA World Cup Final be Argentina Win: Extra Time?No won
- Will the method of victory for the 2026 FIFA World Cup Final be Argentina Win: Penalty Shootout?No won
- Will the method of victory for the 2026 FIFA World Cup Final be Argentina Win: Regular Time?No won
- Will the method of victory for the 2026 FIFA World Cup Final be Spain Win: Extra Time?Yes won
- Will the method of victory for the 2026 FIFA World Cup Final be Spain Win: Penalty Shootout?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.