Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 35°C on July 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6b82cd0335b4b5419dce28cd6c969f5731d88713e413f1afcb213b88a8f61b94
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,303
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,112
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,303 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9196…d934backed No | 69c | 1,154$795 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$358.67 | 644 | 60.6%390 W · 254 L | +92.2wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +36.4%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 13c | 663.14$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.08 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Yes | 14c | 335.2$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.98 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1546…778bbacked Yes | 14c | 293.2$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.5 | 354 | 29.9%106 W · 248 L | -17.6wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7e9c…f3a8backed Yes | 9c | 200.13$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.81 | 602 | 36.5%220 W · 382 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce3…4291backed Yes | 9c | 195$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.4 | 2,165 | 23.8%516 W · 1,649 L | +83.8wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9e42…4938backed Yes | 23c | 192.67$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.41 | 388 | 30.2%117 W · 271 L | +9.0wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 19c | 171.9$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.92 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x2dd7…55a0backed Yes | 25c | 160.21$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 295 | 36.9%109 W · 186 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 74c | 160.14$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.8 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 59c | 149.13$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.55 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4bb5…dfcabacked No | 77c | 132$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.2 | 239 | 51%122 W · 117 L | -9.1wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 37c | 128.64$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.49 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 10c | 107.85$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.11 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8233…df36backed Yes | 80c | 100$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.6wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x85d2…7479backed Yes | 79c | 90.3$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.09 | 532 | 58.6%312 W · 220 L | +45.1wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xba8d…009dbacked Yes | 12c | 83.44$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 601 | 21%126 W · 475 L | -25.4wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb4ce…49e0backed Yes | 50c | 79.25$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.28 | 455 | 40%182 W · 273 L | +20.4wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6868…5198backed No | 29c | 68.61$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.46 | 1,401 | 27.3%383 W · 1,018 L | +69.5wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed Yes | 60c | 57.82$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.51 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed Yes | 72c | 56.39$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.39 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf9e9…8070backed Yes | 25c | 51.08$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.61 | 23 | 17.4%4 W · 19 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -22%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x31b1…11d2backed No | 41c | 50$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.43 | 105 | 53.3%56 W · 49 L | +15.0wins | +0.14per pick | 39cpaid | +40.1%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked Yes | 42c | 47.49$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.85 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 46c | 42.7$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.95 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed Yes | 72c | 40.01$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.97 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e8d…3b13backed Yes | 34c | 40$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 81 | 46.9%38 W · 43 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7112…6d11backed No | 57c | 40$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.2 | 349 | 70.2%245 W · 104 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 68cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6243…e014backed No | 36c | 35.69$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.84 | 232 | 43.5%101 W · 131 L | +24.3wins | +0.10per pick | 33cpaid | +25%equal weight | 61+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed Yes | 58c | 34.94$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.34 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 47c | 33.29$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.81 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x142a…a44abacked No | 40c | 30$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 179 | 45.3%81 W · 98 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35fc…ac54backed No | 52c | 28.85$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.85 | 247 | 51.8%128 W · 119 L | +24.7wins | +0.10per pick | 42cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa595…cdf1backed Yes | 68c | 28.05$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 155 | 61.9%96 W · 59 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked Yes | 52c | 25.67$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.33 | 926 | 2.5%23 W · 903 L | -379.9wins | -0.41per pick | 44cpaid | -90.2%equal weight | 6-0.40 edge/pick |
| 0xbff7…554fbacked Yes | 70c | 22.34$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.59 | 1,026 | 60.8%624 W · 402 L | +11.0wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed29…3024backed Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 241 | 39.8%96 W · 145 L | +10.8wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x660c…7f7abacked Yes | 69c | 19.22$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.22 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +2.8wins | +0.15per pick | 38cpaid | +52.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 35°C on July 31?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on July 31?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on July 31?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C on July 31?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 34°C on July 31?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 36°C on July 31?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 37°C on July 31?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.