South American Leagues · resolved market
CA Aldosivi vs. AA Argentinos Juniors: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6bce909bd79585893f767b5527e2e1acc70b8d35e8db945fc8f7d5a4c5a27847
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,144
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,739
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,144 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 22 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa396…0019backed Over | 22c | 1,337$293 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$293.41 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -2.1wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 60c | 1,298$779 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$519.26 | 5,821 | 45.4%2,642 W · 3,179 L | +97.9wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x85d5…bbf0backed Over | 46c | 659.99$303 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$302.57 | 128 | 27.3%35 W · 93 L | -4.0wins | -0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 57c | 493.05$283 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$210.49 | 8,175 | 48.7%3,980 W · 4,195 L | +27.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 71c | 345.66$246 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.63 | 2,388 | 51.8%1,237 W · 1,151 L | -9.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Under | 59c | 197.81$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.29 | 1,091 | 55.6%607 W · 484 L | -19.8wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x98e9…8dbebacked Under | 50c | 193.94$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.48 | 86 | 48.8%42 W · 44 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1650…42f6backed Under | 39c | 175.02$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.76 | 50 | 26%13 W · 37 L | -7.4wins | -0.15per pick | 41cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xffea…5f0abacked Over | 48c | 167.59$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.24 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | -2.4wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbb75…ba17backed Over | 33c | 100$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ba…4028backed Over | 33c | 95.98$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.67 | 836 | 42.9%359 W · 477 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0efb…016cbacked Under | 55c | 85.48$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.47 | 25 | 72%18 W · 7 L | +2.6wins | +0.11per pick | 61cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed Over | 31c | 65.2$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.21 | 1,487 | 48.7%724 W · 763 L | -17.4wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -10%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2373…a1f3backed Over | 60c | 49.91$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.94 | 190 | 56.3%107 W · 83 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x380c…1099backed Over | 68c | 45.74$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.94 | 93 | 61.3%57 W · 36 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 63cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x120d…5a76backed Under | 69c | 39.82$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.35 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.10per pick | 57cpaid | +25.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x718d…2b46backed Under | 57c | 34.18$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.7 | 84 | 51.2%43 W · 41 L | -5.5wins | -0.07per pick | 58cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf02f…1ed8backed Over | 72c | 32.43$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.35 | 507 | 46.7%237 W · 270 L | -5.8wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under | 67c | 31.66$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.48 | 3,446 | 51.4%1,771 W · 1,675 L | +21.8wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c30…d9e5backed Under | 64c | 30.58$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.01 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +1.2wins | +0.09per pick | 55cpaid | +13%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 49c | 23.77$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.12 | 2,175 | 43.6%948 W · 1,227 L | -56.2wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x32cc…68b3backed Over | 60c | 19.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.98 | 571 | 57.8%330 W · 241 L | +9.0wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- CA Aldosivi vs. AA Argentinos Juniors: O/U 2.5this page
- CA Aldosivi vs. AA Argentinos Juniors: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- CA Aldosivi vs. AA Argentinos Juniors: O/U 1.5Over won
- CA Aldosivi vs. AA Argentinos Juniors: O/U 3.5Under won
- Spread: AA Argentinos Juniors (-1.5)AA Argentinos Juniors won
- Spread: CA Aldosivi (-2.5)AA Argentinos Juniors won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.