TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Ncaa Basketball · resolved market

Butler Bulldogs vs. Virginia Cavaliers

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Butler Bulldogsof Butler Bulldogs, Virginia Cavaliers
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$24,042
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$23,047

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $24,042 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x80ee…5cf0backed Virginia Cavaliers57c1,930$1,095 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,094.962853.6%15 W · 13 L+2.5wins+0.09per pick44cpaid+4.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Virginia Cavaliers52c716.8$371 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$370.875,55347.4%2,634 W · 2,919 L+26.3wins0.00per pick47cpaid-3.6%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed Butler Bulldogs42c703.25$298 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$405.042,55541.6%1,062 W · 1,493 L-15.9wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-20.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Virginia Cavaliers55c645.54$356 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$355.985,94649.3%2,932 W · 3,014 L+163.0wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-0.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xead1…c76abacked Butler Bulldogs29c548$157 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$391.311,51147.8%722 W · 789 L-35.2wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-9.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x29c0…efaabacked Virginia Cavaliers71c527$374 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$374.171,39144.1%613 W · 778 L-10.6wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-7.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x89f3…dfffbacked Virginia Cavaliers67c442$298 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$297.561,17325.2%296 W · 877 L-43.0wins-0.04per pick29cpaid-21.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xfefb…4b5dbacked Virginia Cavaliers57c394.63$227 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$226.891,88745.2%853 W · 1,034 L+6.5wins0.00per pick45cpaid-15.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3439…4f64backed Butler Bulldogs52c313.74$164 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1501100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.48per pick52cpaid+91.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Butler Bulldogs26c257.68$68 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$189.6912,42249.8%6,191 W · 6,231 L+118.8wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Butler Bulldogs49c228.95$111 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$117.491,91049.6%947 W · 963 L+30.4wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+0.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe60a…6a47backed Virginia Cavaliers73c214$155 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$155.182,57947.3%1,221 W · 1,358 L-42.7wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-6.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x781c…db68backed Butler Bulldogs45c205.81$93 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$113.21,42043.9%623 W · 797 L+8.4wins+0.01per pick43cpaid-18.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb13d…2e90backed Virginia Cavaliers55c177.85$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.8255657.4%319 W · 237 L+20.3wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+3.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5139…a8dbbacked Butler Bulldogs37c177$65 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$111.5112853.1%68 W · 60 L+8.2wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+11.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x9dd9…08bdbacked Butler Bulldogs49c170$83 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$86.831,95145.1%880 W · 1,071 L-19.9wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-16.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6a2d…d491backed Butler Bulldogs42c120.33$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70.332552%13 W · 12 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick50cpaid-18.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x81d8…2b8dbacked Virginia Cavaliers14c118.8$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.17955.6%5 W · 4 L+0.5wins+0.06per pick50cpaid-1.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Butler Bulldogs33c103.37$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$69.441,54041.3%636 W · 904 L+4.7wins0.00per pick41cpaid-16.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2d04…cfc5backed Virginia Cavaliers73c101.01$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.641464.3%9 W · 5 L-1.2wins-0.08per pick73cpaid-11.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked Butler Bulldogs43c82.95$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.494,84852.2%2,532 W · 2,316 L+139.2wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6b38…4d61backed Butler Bulldogs26c76.92$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.9215037.3%56 W · 94 L-2.4wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-4.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xde04…fa37backed Butler Bulldogs46c70.19$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.92,25442.2%951 W · 1,303 L+3.4wins0.00per pick42cpaid-5.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1a1b…d6cbbacked Virginia Cavaliers48c69.83$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.7610%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.48per pick48cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6fdc…6d51backed Virginia Cavaliers58c60$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.810%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.58per pick58cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x686a…c769backed Virginia Cavaliers74c54.05$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$404158.5%24 W · 17 L-2.8wins-0.07per pick65cpaid-15.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x8639…fb86backed Butler Bulldogs29c50$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.517740.7%72 W · 105 L-0.6wins0.00per pick41cpaid+5.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1d94…9100backed Butler Bulldogs35c49.47$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.062,04832.7%670 W · 1,378 L-16.2wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-9.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x26be…d699backed Butler Bulldogs45c45.22$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.791154.5%6 W · 5 L+1.7wins+0.15per pick39cpaid+61.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x0f8e…3082backed Butler Bulldogs51c41.36$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.373,68442.8%1,576 W · 2,108 L+32.6wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-5.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb375…59d6backed Virginia Cavaliers48c40.4$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.551127.3%3 W · 8 L-0.7wins-0.06per pick34cpaid-44.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd9fa…6745backed Virginia Cavaliers55c35.69$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.63966.7%6 W · 3 L+2.1wins+0.23per pick43cpaid+59.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x9731…9b35backed Butler Bulldogs33c35.4$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.81,63347.3%773 W · 860 L+25.5wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+2.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.