Ncaa Basketball · resolved market
Butler Bulldogs vs. Virginia Cavaliers
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6bd9ebb9b28aacee77ec9fce7063f47427e873f9ec0321a3433f575fc523c485
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Butler Bulldogsof Butler Bulldogs, Virginia Cavaliers
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $24,042
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $23,047
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $24,042 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x80ee…5cf0backed Virginia Cavaliers | 57c | 1,930$1,095 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,094.96 | 28 | 53.6%15 W · 13 L | +2.5wins | +0.09per pick | 44cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Virginia Cavaliers | 52c | 716.8$371 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$370.87 | 5,553 | 47.4%2,634 W · 2,919 L | +26.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Butler Bulldogs | 42c | 703.25$298 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$405.04 | 2,555 | 41.6%1,062 W · 1,493 L | -15.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Virginia Cavaliers | 55c | 645.54$356 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$355.98 | 5,946 | 49.3%2,932 W · 3,014 L | +163.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xead1…c76abacked Butler Bulldogs | 29c | 548$157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$391.31 | 1,511 | 47.8%722 W · 789 L | -35.2wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Virginia Cavaliers | 71c | 527$374 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$374.17 | 1,391 | 44.1%613 W · 778 L | -10.6wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x89f3…dfffbacked Virginia Cavaliers | 67c | 442$298 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$297.56 | 1,173 | 25.2%296 W · 877 L | -43.0wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfefb…4b5dbacked Virginia Cavaliers | 57c | 394.63$227 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$226.89 | 1,887 | 45.2%853 W · 1,034 L | +6.5wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3439…4f64backed Butler Bulldogs | 52c | 313.74$164 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +91.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Butler Bulldogs | 26c | 257.68$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$189.69 | 12,422 | 49.8%6,191 W · 6,231 L | +118.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Butler Bulldogs | 49c | 228.95$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.49 | 1,910 | 49.6%947 W · 963 L | +30.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Virginia Cavaliers | 73c | 214$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.18 | 2,579 | 47.3%1,221 W · 1,358 L | -42.7wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…db68backed Butler Bulldogs | 45c | 205.81$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.2 | 1,420 | 43.9%623 W · 797 L | +8.4wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb13d…2e90backed Virginia Cavaliers | 55c | 177.85$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.82 | 556 | 57.4%319 W · 237 L | +20.3wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5139…a8dbbacked Butler Bulldogs | 37c | 177$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.51 | 128 | 53.1%68 W · 60 L | +8.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Butler Bulldogs | 49c | 170$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.83 | 1,951 | 45.1%880 W · 1,071 L | -19.9wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a2d…d491backed Butler Bulldogs | 42c | 120.33$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.33 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x81d8…2b8dbacked Virginia Cavaliers | 14c | 118.8$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.17 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Butler Bulldogs | 33c | 103.37$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.44 | 1,540 | 41.3%636 W · 904 L | +4.7wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2d04…cfc5backed Virginia Cavaliers | 73c | 101.01$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.64 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.08per pick | 73cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Butler Bulldogs | 43c | 82.95$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.49 | 4,848 | 52.2%2,532 W · 2,316 L | +139.2wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b38…4d61backed Butler Bulldogs | 26c | 76.92$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.92 | 150 | 37.3%56 W · 94 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Butler Bulldogs | 46c | 70.19$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.9 | 2,254 | 42.2%951 W · 1,303 L | +3.4wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1a1b…d6cbbacked Virginia Cavaliers | 48c | 69.83$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.76 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6fdc…6d51backed Virginia Cavaliers | 58c | 60$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x686a…c769backed Virginia Cavaliers | 74c | 54.05$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 41 | 58.5%24 W · 17 L | -2.8wins | -0.07per pick | 65cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8639…fb86backed Butler Bulldogs | 29c | 50$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.5 | 177 | 40.7%72 W · 105 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Butler Bulldogs | 35c | 49.47$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.06 | 2,048 | 32.7%670 W · 1,378 L | -16.2wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x26be…d699backed Butler Bulldogs | 45c | 45.22$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.79 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +1.7wins | +0.15per pick | 39cpaid | +61.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Butler Bulldogs | 51c | 41.36$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.37 | 3,684 | 42.8%1,576 W · 2,108 L | +32.6wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb375…59d6backed Virginia Cavaliers | 48c | 40.4$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.55 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -44.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd9fa…6745backed Virginia Cavaliers | 55c | 35.69$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.63 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +2.1wins | +0.23per pick | 43cpaid | +59.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Butler Bulldogs | 33c | 35.4$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.8 | 1,633 | 47.3%773 W · 860 L | +25.5wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Butler Bulldogs vs. Virginia Cavaliersthis page
- Spread: Virginia Cavaliers (-6.5)Butler Bulldogs won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.