MLB · resolved market
Atlanta Braves vs. Arizona Diamondbacks
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6c04eba1de6e788b2c80b332bc4591c72e2ff24ce551acf1069a29f53475fe92
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Atlanta Bravesof Atlanta Braves, Arizona Diamondbacks
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,472
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,088
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,472 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 24 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x889e…09e0backed Atlanta Braves | 55c | 5,000$2,750 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,250 | 279 | 48.4%135 W · 144 L | -11.1wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc8b4…f05dbacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 45c | 3,813$1,716 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,715.77 | 418 | 50%209 W · 209 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x994e…9cf5backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 45c | 1,963$883 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$883.49 | 211 | 47.9%101 W · 110 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d3a…7b63backed Atlanta Braves | 54c | 1,940$1,048 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$892.49 | 1,352 | 50.8%687 W · 665 L | +13.3wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 46c | 1,904$876 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$875.58 | 1,212 | 52.1%631 W · 581 L | +21.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd55c…34febacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 46c | 924.89$425 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$425.45 | 376 | 49.5%186 W · 190 L | +9.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24df…e8b2backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 45c | 917.53$413 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$412.64 | 1,203 | 44.2%532 W · 671 L | +20.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x10b0…8525backed Atlanta Braves | 54c | 700$378 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$322 | 958 | 50%479 W · 479 L | +4.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8511…4a6bbacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 46c | 436$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.56 | 436 | 54.8%239 W · 197 L | +8.6wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff5c…ccbdbacked Atlanta Braves | 54c | 372.16$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$172.16 | 204 | 48.5%99 W · 105 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x89c9…9534backed Atlanta Braves | 55c | 364.99$201 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$164.25 | 917 | 49.9%458 W · 459 L | -3.3wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 44c | 320.5$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.96 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b7e…6a9fbacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 45c | 222.22$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2,033 | 52.4%1,066 W · 967 L | -35.5wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 45c | 220.5$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2,267 | 53.3%1,208 W · 1,059 L | -12.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0cc…73e6backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 22c | 100$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 145 | 39.3%57 W · 88 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb786…b18dbacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 45c | 89.09$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.09 | 1,591 | 50.3%801 W · 790 L | +68.9wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x60ab…d681backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 49c | 57.24$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 743 | 56.9%423 W · 320 L | -12.0wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16e6…1c52backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 49c | 51.02$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 115 | 62.6%72 W · 43 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf391…73c3backed Atlanta Braves | 55c | 45.45$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.45 | 295 | 52.2%154 W · 141 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0643…d46bbacked Atlanta Braves | 55c | 43.64$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.64 | 405 | 57.8%234 W · 171 L | +7.6wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa337…9e54backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 46c | 43.48$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 944 | 55.3%522 W · 422 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd4…1b50backed Atlanta Braves | 56c | 30.89$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.59 | 2,045 | 53.8%1,100 W · 945 L | +32.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x02c7…3df7backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 46c | 22$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.12 | 551 | 52.5%289 W · 262 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x72fe…e2cebacked Atlanta Braves | 54c | 21.74$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 519 | 55.3%287 W · 232 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.