Europa Conference League · resolved market
Ferencvárosi TC vs. SC Braga: O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6c4be9490ed897ab1cb84fe4da3743b3b501652a6909b5e25bc74d058ec1081d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Europa Conference Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,717
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,717 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 20 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Europa Conference League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 7c | 4,741$324 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$324.43 | 3,726 | 47%1,750 W · 1,976 L | +20.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x08ce…f301backed Over | 25c | 1,250$311 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$311.45 | 38 | 28.9%11 W · 27 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x258f…4493backed Over | 21c | 428.57$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 29 | 20.7%6 W · 23 L | -1.6wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa266…67f7backed Over | 25c | 400$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 32 | 21.9%7 W · 25 L | -1.9wins | -0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x160b…4296backed Under | 75c | 360.66$270 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.16 | 433 | 44.6%193 W · 240 L | -8.1wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6619…703ebacked Under | 80c | 338.52$270 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.52 | 54 | 64.8%35 W · 19 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 68cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf715…bbf0backed Over | 23c | 226.8$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.16 | 35 | 22.9%8 W · 27 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfa01…f0a7backed Under | 77c | 200$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46 | 200 | 56.5%113 W · 87 L | +7.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed Under | 75c | 200$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 333 | 49.8%166 W · 167 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6340…1bd0backed Over | 24c | 199.95$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.99 | 63 | 31.7%20 W · 43 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa710…f1ccbacked Over | 26c | 192.31$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 152 | 24.3%37 W · 115 L | -6.9wins | -0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Under | 74c | 106.95$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.78 | 382 | 47.1%180 W · 202 L | +8.9wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1479…b778backed Under | 77c | 77.92$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.92 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -11%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5aa2…e287backed Under | 76c | 65.79$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.79 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x20ad…a7c6backed Under | 76c | 49.88$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.97 | 218 | 35.8%78 W · 140 L | -4.6wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Over | 24c | 42$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 379 | 26.1%99 W · 280 L | -8.1wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x69ee…6e35backed Under | 74c | 32.62$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.33 | 168 | 56.5%95 W · 73 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4713…99f7backed Under | 76c | 26.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.32 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbf57…ecc4backed Under | 77c | 20.08$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.7 | 60 | 56.7%34 W · 26 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c93…0fb8backed Under | 77c | 13.38$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.13 | 46 | 63%29 W · 17 L | +4.4wins | +0.09per pick | 54cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Ferencvárosi TC vs. SC Braga: O/U 3.5this page
- Ferencvárosi TC vs. SC Braga: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- Ferencvárosi TC vs. SC Braga: O/U 1.5Over won
- Ferencvárosi TC vs. SC Braga: O/U 2.5Under won
- Ferencvárosi TC vs. SC Braga: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: Ferencvárosi TC (-1.5)Ferencvárosi TC won
- Spread: SC Braga (-1.5)Ferencvárosi TC won
- Spread: SC Braga (-2.5)Ferencvárosi TC won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.