Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 86-87°F on May 25?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6c63697a1c9909e607d8f8c90ee609066e86e3486d46f7901d6760b25597568e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,518
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,229
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,518 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 59 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xec86…60e4backed Yes | 32c | 232.85$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$158.4 | 1,163 | 38.2%444 W · 719 L | +19.4wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 29c | 192.59$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.62 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 67c | 177.02$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.64 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 61c | 165.19$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.15 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6086…a5f9backed No | 24c | 124.49$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.46 | 310 | 50.3%156 W · 154 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x81b9…225bbacked No | 48c | 109.99$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.6 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe1de…aadfbacked Yes | 50c | 95.51$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.65 | 63 | 76.2%48 W · 15 L | +7.8wins | +0.12per pick | 64cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3ac0…ace0backed No | 71c | 83.02$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.96 | 74 | 63.5%47 W · 27 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8961…ab1abacked No | 71c | 77.75$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.5 | 254 | 66.9%170 W · 84 L | -7.6wins | -0.03per pick | 70cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b72…a958backed No | 68c | 77.53$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.37 | 686 | 45.8%314 W · 372 L | -10.7wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f7…e0dabacked Yes | 33c | 71.48$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.89 | 1,861 | 23.8%443 W · 1,418 L | +47.9wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x01a6…59b0backed No | 66c | 70.99$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.54 | 1,679 | 61.7%1,036 W · 643 L | +6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7b6…0d76backed Yes | 35c | 70.7$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.26 | 47 | 34%16 W · 31 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 25c | 70.39$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.88 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked Yes | 50c | 68.6$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.55 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe54c…2c69backed Yes | 33c | 62.16$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.38 | 255 | 60.8%155 W · 100 L | +16.2wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +14%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed Yes | 33c | 60.21$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.21 | 2,428 | 44.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L | -31.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x71b5…6dabbacked No | 48c | 60$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.8 | 49 | 42.9%21 W · 28 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb33e…28c3backed Yes | 59c | 60$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.32 | 11 | 100%11 W · 0 L | +4.5wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +82.9%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x7782…f35fbacked No | 50c | 60$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 47 | 46.8%22 W · 25 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c70…101bbacked Yes | 56c | 60$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.62 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +93.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xefd0…df2cbacked Yes | 52c | 60$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.8 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.54per pick | 46cpaid | +124.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4bcc…b908backed Yes | 36c | 60$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.41 | 55 | 49.1%27 W · 28 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed No | 70c | 59.55$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.96 | 2,015 | 67.7%1,365 W · 650 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8842…dfa7backed Yes | 40c | 55.84$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.76 | 452 | 36.5%165 W · 287 L | +20.0wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 28c | 52.38$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.71 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 33c | 50.03$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.56 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b47…f1f5backed Yes | 28c | 50.01$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.24 | 244 | 34.4%84 W · 160 L | +10.0wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 41c | 50$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.5 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 35c | 49.71$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.37 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 32c | 49.04$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.13 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 55c | 47.32$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.17 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xc238…68eabacked No | 69c | 45.66$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.3 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +1.7wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +23.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked Yes | 35c | 45.06$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.07 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc036…2b99backed No | 67c | 44.69$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 56 | 64.3%36 W · 20 L | -3.7wins | -0.07per pick | 71cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x407e…5bf0backed No | 69c | 42.6$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.23 | 93 | 61.3%57 W · 36 L | -7.4wins | -0.08per pick | 69cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed Yes | 49c | 41$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.82 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda91…d760backed Yes | 40c | 40$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 1,010 | 40.3%407 W · 603 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8827…5d62backed No | 64c | 39$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.13 | 1,772 | 50.5%895 W · 877 L | +43.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 60c | 38.67$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.2 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x567f…94b9backed No | 53c | 36$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.08 | 489 | 19.2%94 W · 395 L | -38.7wins | -0.08per pick | 27cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe256…0408backed Yes | 36c | 34.97$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.41 | 36 | 41.7%15 W · 21 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +21.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x18ae…314cbacked No | 69c | 31.88$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.85 | 1,211 | 29.8%361 W · 850 L | -7.6wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5644…ecbbbacked Yes | 38c | 31.55$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.56 | 237 | 38%90 W · 147 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 64c | 30.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.84 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2109…58b3backed No | 45c | 30.46$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.71 | 53 | 37.7%20 W · 33 L | -2.8wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1bd1…372abacked No | 61c | 30.16$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.3 | 31 | 64.5%20 W · 11 L | +2.1wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 62c | 30$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.52 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa259…6597backed No | 65c | 30$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.55 | 995 | 71.1%707 W · 288 L | +22.0wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 67c | 30$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.1 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf90…62b9backed Yes | 52c | 29$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.84 | 31 | 77.4%24 W · 7 L | +5.7wins | +0.18per pick | 59cpaid | +39.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x7299…a763backed No | 72c | 26.04$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.75 | 236 | 68.2%161 W · 75 L | -7.3wins | -0.03per pick | 71cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd41c…4859backed Yes | 75c | 23.98$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.01 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 74cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb040…ef71backed No | 70c | 21.48$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.99 | 113 | 62.8%71 W · 42 L | -4.8wins | -0.04per pick | 67cpaid | -8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb423…c178backed No | 70c | 21.42$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 268 | 61.6%165 W · 103 L | -6.4wins | -0.02per pick | 64cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x09c2…8210backed Yes | 53c | 20.04$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.35 | 541 | 54%292 W · 249 L | +13.3wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6409…9411backed No | 69c | 19.39$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.38 | 825 | 62.2%513 W · 312 L | -23.9wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd9d6…13e2backed Yes | 68c | 16.19$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.24 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +58.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x41fa…7cc4backed No | 67c | 14.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.04 | 792 | 55.2%437 W · 355 L | +9.3wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 86-87°F on May 25?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 82-83°F on May 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 84-85°F on May 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 88-89°F on May 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 90-91°F on May 25?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.