Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 84-85°F on May 25?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x71e1e2f762a6c2b7e6be4b52fc11bbd950f350986ebd6dcfc557459e895e71a2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,308
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,745
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,308 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 68 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8817…cda8backed Yes | 52c | 723.78$374 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$374.39 | 248 | 41.1%102 W · 146 L | -13.5wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x09c2…8210backed No | 41c | 443.29$181 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$262.51 | 541 | 54%292 W · 249 L | +13.3wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 17c | 366.68$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.78 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 15c | 307$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.97 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf971…0a57backed Yes | 26c | 255.63$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.75 | 618 | 21.2%131 W · 487 L | -34.2wins | -0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -48.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 19c | 255.55$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.72 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7dfe…aef2backed Yes | 20c | 152.27$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.98 | 102 | 28.4%29 W · 73 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb33e…28c3backed No | 75c | 150$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.92 | 11 | 100%11 W · 0 L | +4.5wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +82.9%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x2451…09fabacked Yes | 21c | 123.23$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 221 | 25.3%56 W · 165 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc62d…5577backed Yes | 36c | 110$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.49 | 250 | 38%95 W · 155 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 79c | 105.08$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.67 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x23d8…f6b9backed No | 80c | 100$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 251 | 75.7%190 W · 61 L | +24.7wins | +0.10per pick | 66cpaid | +14%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf787…1b63backed Yes | 54c | 100$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 432 | 38%164 W · 268 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaafc…ec67backed Yes | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.75 | 447 | 57.3%256 W · 191 L | +53.9wins | +0.12per pick | 45cpaid | +24%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x35c4…d144backed Yes | 79c | 99.99$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79 | 1,255 | 62.5%785 W · 470 L | +99.5wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c3…20e0backed No | 66c | 93.99$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.96 | 637 | 57.6%367 W · 270 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked Yes | 16c | 82.11$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.14 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7b6…0d76backed Yes | 36c | 81.64$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.36 | 47 | 34%16 W · 31 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked Yes | 20c | 77.45$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.78 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf839…4407backed No | 66c | 76.08$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.08 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -1.9wins | -0.15per pick | 61cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x200e…7d37backed No | 70c | 73.45$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.73 | 67 | 67.2%45 W · 22 L | +5.3wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x567f…94b9backed Yes | 19c | 73.19$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.97 | 489 | 19.2%94 W · 395 L | -38.7wins | -0.08per pick | 27cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x81b9…225bbacked No | 48c | 70$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.5 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 64c | 67.09$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.26 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 30c | 62.84$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.85 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed Yes | 33c | 60.65$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.86 | 2,428 | 44.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L | -31.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4818…e5debacked Yes | 21c | 60.03$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.39 | 312 | 19.9%62 W · 250 L | -40.4wins | -0.13per pick | 33cpaid | -59.1%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x71b5…6dabbacked No | 48c | 60$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.2 | 49 | 42.9%21 W · 28 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7782…f35fbacked No | 50c | 60$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 47 | 46.8%22 W · 25 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed Yes | 29c | 58$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.08 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a3b…957bbacked No | 67c | 57.25$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.12 | 370 | 56.5%209 W · 161 L | +31.7wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +19%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4bcc…b908backed Yes | 19c | 56.82$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.96 | 55 | 49.1%27 W · 28 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xadaa…875abacked Yes | 69c | 55.38$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.01 | 131 | 34.4%45 W · 86 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x18ae…314cbacked No | 63c | 53.8$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.65 | 1,211 | 29.8%361 W · 850 L | -7.6wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4374…3d05backed No | 74c | 53.8$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.8 | 341 | 51.3%175 W · 166 L | -26.9wins | -0.08per pick | 59cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x23b2…605cbacked No | 67c | 52.24$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.24 | 114 | 59.6%68 W · 46 L | -7.1wins | -0.06per pick | 66cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 41c | 50$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.5 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 34c | 49.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 64c | 46.95$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.8 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda54…b8a1backed No | 64c | 42.61$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.14 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb281…e048backed Yes | 40c | 40$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.8 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86c2…8010backed No | 41c | 40$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.6 | 1,271 | 47.6%605 W · 666 L | -25.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda91…d760backed Yes | 40c | 39.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 1,010 | 40.3%407 W · 603 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed Yes | 31c | 35.88$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.16 | 1,554 | 33.1%515 W · 1,039 L | -66.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed Yes | 32c | 35$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.11 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 36c | 33.84$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.05 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x6e2a…967bbacked Yes | 35c | 33.66$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.78 | 33 | 27.3%9 W · 24 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed Yes | 37c | 32.6$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.99 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 40c | 31.75$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.68 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 64c | 31$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.16 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 64c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.84 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3ac0…ace0backed No | 66c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.2 | 74 | 63.5%47 W · 27 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 51c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.7 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe681…19f8backed Yes | 40c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.88 | 34 | 64.7%22 W · 12 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 63cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa717…faeabacked Yes | 39c | 27$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.66 | 311 | 70.7%220 W · 91 L | +42.3wins | +0.14per pick | 57cpaid | +30.8%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed Yes | 52c | 26$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.39 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9ed8…cad8backed No | 65c | 25.66$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.87 | 62 | 66.1%41 W · 21 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ad7…347abacked Yes | 42c | 25.49$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.66 | 729 | 52.4%382 W · 347 L | +34.9wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9caa…1a3fbacked Yes | 53c | 21.79$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.55 | 122 | 35.2%43 W · 79 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed Yes | 57c | 21$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.01 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x425d…6cb0backed Yes | 75c | 20.03$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 253 | 44.7%113 W · 140 L | -5.7wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…fcc1backed Yes | 79c | 20$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.8 | 240 | 46.7%112 W · 128 L | -5.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf1ab…5cf7backed No | 60c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 208 | 52.4%109 W · 99 L | -10.4wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcdd4…05ebbacked No | 80c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.05 | 163 | 54%88 W · 75 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x42c0…b200backed Yes | 52c | 19.68$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.27 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -27%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2698…2941backed Yes | 63c | 17.79$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.28 | 1,011 | 61.2%619 W · 392 L | +14.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6409…9411backed No | 75c | 17.43$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.44 | 825 | 62.2%513 W · 312 L | -23.9wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe5b1…30b2backed No | 77c | 16.53$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.8 | 503 | 73.2%368 W · 135 L | +25.3wins | +0.05per pick | 68cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 84-85°F on May 25?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 82-83°F on May 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 86-87°F on May 25?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 88-89°F on May 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 90-91°F on May 25?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.