NFL · resolved market
NFL: Houston Texans vs. Chicago Bears
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6c801092e4fa8de9a184fee0271446399b3c61b28347085cd29394ddc49e3e49
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Bearsof Texans, Bears
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $33,594
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $36,179
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $33,594 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 51 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3dfb…165cbacked Texans | 48c | 3,893$1,869 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,868.64 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe25e…0aa5backed Texans | 30c | 3,706$1,123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,122.8 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7789…f823backed Bears | 52c | 2,885$1,496 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,388.57 | 23 | 8.7%2 W · 21 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 13cpaid | -84.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf33…261fbacked Texans | 55c | 2,875$1,588 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,587.65 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -2.4wins | -0.16per pick | 36cpaid | -65%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1514…2624backed Bears | 63c | 2,853$1,805 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,048.51 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x92c3…bd0ebacked Texans | 48c | 2,520$1,210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,209.6 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -62.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8cc…5a82backed Bears | 52c | 2,222$1,155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,066.56 | 57 | 24.6%14 W · 43 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4c03…0cc1backed Bears | 51c | 2,000$1,010 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$990 | 120 | 22.5%27 W · 93 L | -6.1wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -30%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd9d2…40b0backed Texans | 48c | 1,518$722 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$722.49 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8c67…bb39backed Texans | 33c | 1,397$454 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$454.25 | 202 | 46%93 W · 109 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x241e…c7bfbacked Texans | 5c | 1,067$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.33 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2736…3625backed Bears | 71c | 974$688 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$285.91 | 32 | 31.3%10 W · 22 L | +1.5wins | +0.05per pick | 26cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9733…f034backed Texans | 64c | 804.09$511 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$510.73 | 171 | 44.4%76 W · 95 L | -4.8wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x182b…f022backed Bears | 52c | 669.68$347 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$323.17 | 102 | 46.1%47 W · 55 L | +8.8wins | +0.09per pick | 37cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcede…f2f6backed Bears | 36c | 534.69$190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$344.32 | 90 | 22.2%20 W · 70 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4f00…fc5ebacked Texans | 57c | 377.01$214 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$214 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.57per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2855…afffbacked Bears | 46c | 342.51$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$184.96 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x216e…6501backed Bears | 47c | 325.03$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$173.12 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x93f4…e6a5backed Bears | 4c | 314.84$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$302.25 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.96per pick | 4cpaid | +2,400%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x786b…9882backed Bears | 28c | 262.95$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$190.24 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.72per pick | 28cpaid | +261.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b32…5950backed Texans | 54c | 222$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.88 | 54 | 33.3%18 W · 36 L | -7.6wins | -0.14per pick | 47cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x2137…0677backed Bears | 52c | 200$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96 | 204 | 40.7%83 W · 121 L | +7.4wins | +0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -17%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb8c5…c9b5backed Texans | 57c | 175$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -1.4wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8371…06febacked Bears | 53c | 153.12$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.43 | 43 | 18.6%8 W · 35 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +68.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc6cc…31fdbacked Texans | 54c | 150$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7cb2…5a04backed Bears | 70c | 142.86$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.86 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x73c7…b175backed Texans | 76c | 138.89$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.14 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f91…907fbacked Bears | 46c | 134.92$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73 | 128 | 43.8%56 W · 72 L | -3.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb067…cc17backed Texans | 32c | 132$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.58 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x35e3…8d3fbacked Bears | 45c | 111.11$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.11 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.55per pick | 45cpaid | +122.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce00…eb1abacked Bears | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf86c…ba99backed Texans | 46c | 99.52$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.78 | 87 | 60.9%53 W · 34 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x610d…188bbacked Bears | 30c | 70$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.70per pick | 30cpaid | +233.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf612…5700backed Bears | 52c | 55$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.4 | 207 | 36.2%75 W · 132 L | -13.3wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -23%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfe1f…f51cbacked Texans | 56c | 50.39$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.22 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c16…df3abacked Bears | 53c | 50$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.5 | 31 | 48.4%15 W · 16 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b55…02f8backed Bears | 48c | 50$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 73 | 46.6%34 W · 39 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2116…f8e2backed Bears | 47c | 48.94$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.94 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.58per pick | 42cpaid | +138%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb761…89e0backed Texans | 40c | 47.49$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x09d8…6f51backed Texans | 56c | 43.32$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.26 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.24per pick | 57cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb2db…192fbacked Texans | 48c | 41.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb5f…871bbacked Texans | 47c | 41.13$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.33 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbbc0…cf33backed Bears | 49c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.4 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.20per pick | 30cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfeb5…1a1dbacked Bears | 47c | 37.3$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.77 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x09ed…8ab0backed Bears | 47c | 33.77$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.9 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce58…5df1backed Bears | 53c | 28.3$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.3 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +88.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x478d…2e9abacked Bears | 54c | 27.54$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.67 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +85.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb59e…d7f6backed Texans | 56c | 26.29$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.72 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1209…cb0abacked Bears | 54c | 25.2$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.59 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +85.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x472e…afacbacked Bears | 54c | 22.33$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.27 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +85.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5cc8…2dc2backed Bears | 54c | 20.17$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.28 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +85.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.