Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 13°C on April 19?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6c9e13a15e0b4fbbf48c839f79ed13f1048598a9a988cb1d549adeb62918ac52
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,932
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,074
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,932 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 56 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5581…8495backed No | 40c | 844.92$335 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$334.56 | 40 | 62.5%25 W · 15 L | +2.6wins | +0.07per pick | 56cpaid | -11%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa054…a95dbacked Yes | 58c | 402.84$233 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$169.79 | 399 | 66.2%264 W · 135 L | +33.6wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 20c | 313.54$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.39 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 40c | 219.14$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.27 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ef2…faa5backed Yes | 61c | 203.18$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.39 | 428 | 49.5%212 W · 216 L | +45.8wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +23%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xe1d3…0321backed Yes | 47c | 200.27$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.51 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +1.6wins | +0.20per pick | 30cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xba23…0b69backed Yes | 35c | 187.76$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.32 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +2.6wins | +0.19per pick | 46cpaid | +38.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0d42…f124backed No | 41c | 160$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.4 | 523 | 22.6%118 W · 405 L | -18.0wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -44.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 61c | 146.34$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.94 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1838…29b4backed Yes | 63c | 143.88$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.87 | 963 | 13.7%132 W · 831 L | +33.9wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | +35.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 57c | 123.32$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.87 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x33c9…3554backed Yes | 72c | 105.86$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.07 | 38 | 36.8%14 W · 24 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfab6…f3e1backed Yes | 45c | 104.94$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.69 | 32 | 46.9%15 W · 17 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x45c9…a3d1backed No | 57c | 103.75$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.57 | 275 | 60%165 W · 110 L | +7.9wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcdf3…76a5backed Yes | 80c | 103.65$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.73 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.08per pick | 67cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x03a7…affbbacked Yes | 68c | 102.95$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.92 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.5wins | +0.30per pick | 50cpaid | +42%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x01a6…59b0backed No | 54c | 102.75$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.87 | 1,679 | 61.7%1,036 W · 643 L | +6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc423…2ccdbacked Yes | 49c | 96.84$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.39 | 524 | 44.1%231 W · 293 L | -9.0wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x50e9…af97backed Yes | 51c | 94.03$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.5 | 106 | 58.5%62 W · 44 L | -7.4wins | -0.07per pick | 65cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2c51…7c37backed No | 33c | 81.32$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.71 | 59 | 33.9%20 W · 39 L | -3.2wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3c69…4622backed No | 61c | 80$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.4 | 562 | 65.5%368 W · 194 L | +35.2wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6e0a…bd94backed No | 60c | 77.76$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.66 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.3wins | -0.67per pick | 67cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbc76…b8cfbacked Yes | 50c | 76.83$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.77 | 42 | 45.2%19 W · 23 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaad7…cf8fbacked No | 69c | 72.45$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.99 | 861 | 73.2%630 W · 231 L | +13.2wins | +0.02per pick | 72cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 29c | 68.4$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.11 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x35c4…d144backed Yes | 75c | 68.25$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.06 | 1,255 | 62.5%785 W · 470 L | +99.5wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5608…c0dbbacked Yes | 51c | 66.71$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.84 | 191 | 60.7%116 W · 75 L | +11.6wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked No | 43c | 66.22$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.3 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc34a…1a73backed Yes | 73c | 64.39$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.25 | 186 | 68.8%128 W · 58 L | +27.3wins | +0.15per pick | 54cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x2354…fab1backed Yes | 77c | 61.42$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.1 | 140 | 62.9%88 W · 52 L | +11.8wins | +0.08per pick | 54cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 46c | 61.22$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.37 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xf7ce…7f30backed No | 61c | 60$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.3 | 160 | 65.6%105 W · 55 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b78…e589backed Yes | 50c | 55$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.5 | 379 | 42.5%161 W · 218 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe2a1…20f9backed No | 38c | 50.15$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.26 | 340 | 57.1%194 W · 146 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b31…852cbacked No | 24c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 257 | 42.4%109 W · 148 L | +8.6wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 26c | 48.35$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.57 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x6ebb…405abacked Yes | 59c | 43.16$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.69 | 790 | 40.9%323 W · 467 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfdd4…6084backed Yes | 59c | 40.64$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.66 | 135 | 34.1%46 W · 89 L | -6.7wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 61c | 39.51$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.96 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfcf3…f535backed Yes | 62c | 39.06$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.84 | 28 | 32.1%9 W · 19 L | -4.6wins | -0.16per pick | 48cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xed5b…a76abacked Yes | 62c | 39.06$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.84 | 190 | 47.4%90 W · 100 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe2c…7bdabacked Yes | 62c | 39.05$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.84 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +45.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3cb7…1a88backed Yes | 46c | 31.21$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.93 | 999 | 49.5%495 W · 504 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x96e6…fecebacked Yes | 62c | 31.02$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.79 | 261 | 42.1%110 W · 151 L | +15.8wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +16%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd9f1…8e49backed Yes | 70c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 66cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 53c | 29.67$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.76 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd9a…18f9backed Yes | 60c | 28.93$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.49 | 79 | 32.9%26 W · 53 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb060…9572backed Yes | 46c | 25.73$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.89 | 97 | 50.5%49 W · 48 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9686…1701backed Yes | 54c | 24.87$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.51 | 351 | 33.6%118 W · 233 L | +10.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x966c…087fbacked No | 45c | 24.85$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 441 | 47.4%209 W · 232 L | -17.5wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4a3b…256ebacked Yes | 74c | 19.61$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.1 | 233 | 62.2%145 W · 88 L | +33.5wins | +0.14per pick | 48cpaid | +31.9%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x081e…1e4ebacked Yes | 68c | 19.52$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.25 | 321 | 47.4%152 W · 169 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6de9…a8e5backed Yes | 62c | 19.31$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.34 | 201 | 61.7%124 W · 77 L | -10.1wins | -0.05per pick | 67cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x843d…89bcbacked Yes | 62c | 19.23$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.37 | 36 | 61.1%22 W · 14 L | +4.1wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xadf5…20f8backed Yes | 61c | 19$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.41 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 13°C on April 19?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 12°C on April 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 14°C on April 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 15°C on April 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 18°C or higher on April 19?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.