Valorant · resolved market
Valorant: sleepers vs Shopify Rebellion Black (BO3) - VCL North America Swiss Stage
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6cbc414cf5fb092e4d2830b7b8c1f8a52ea5b07b6b92fe696762127cde3a6a9b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- sleepersof sleepers, Shopify Rebellion Black
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Valorantevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,716
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,176
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,716 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 19 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Valorant is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Valorant | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x92d6…0550backed sleepers | 16c | 2,479$397 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,082.36 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +40.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc8f9…fee2backed sleepers | 17c | 2,124$352 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,772.17 | 282 | 47.5%134 W · 148 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8157…f6ebbacked Shopify Rebellion Black | 51c | 2,113$1,078 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,077.83 | 34 | 55.9%19 W · 15 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e15…7531backed sleepers | 18c | 1,000$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$820 | 333 | 48.3%161 W · 172 L | +13.2wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xba05…f8c0backed sleepers | 15c | 1,000$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$850 | 312 | 32.7%102 W · 210 L | +3.6wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6fbb…39dabacked sleepers | 45c | 948$426 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$521.88 | 23 | 69.6%16 W · 7 L | +5.4wins | +0.23per pick | 46cpaid | +68.3%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x4762…ba70backed sleepers | 52c | 812.48$423 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$389.43 | 135 | 58.5%79 W · 56 L | +11.3wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x63ad…790cbacked sleepers | 31c | 577.14$177 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$400.17 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked sleepers | 15c | 477.28$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$405.63 | 107 | 43.9%47 W · 60 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30a0…a458backed sleepers | 14c | 400$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$343.25 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | +2.4wins | +0.09per pick | 37cpaid | +37.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfbdf…f7d1backed sleepers | 50c | 95.99$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.38 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +39.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f2a…eacbbacked sleepers | 51c | 85.91$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.71 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +1.8wins | +0.13per pick | 52cpaid | +18.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf360…6726backed sleepers | 16c | 63.31$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.3 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +0.6wins | +0.08per pick | 17cpaid | +48.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4255…1792backed sleepers | 52c | 53$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.44 | 160 | 41.9%67 W · 93 L | +6.9wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdd9a…796cbacked Shopify Rebellion Black | 75c | 48.79$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.59 | 87 | 50.6%44 W · 43 L | -4.9wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xce5c…41f3backed sleepers | 30c | 38.33$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.83 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb512…cc11backed sleepers | 52c | 31.96$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.34 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +1.9wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa005…6646backed Shopify Rebellion Black | 63c | 24.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.84 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa53a…6631backed Shopify Rebellion Black | 66c | 18.2$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.66per pick | 66cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Valorant and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.