Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 15°C on March 9?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6cd6d0e20d6c544e8932c2c563f921cc2fa5847781ef5dd853ac9f408cbaae95
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,422
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,422 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 76c | 258.93$197 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.44 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeeec…a723backed No | 17c | 217.87$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.89 | 34 | 52.9%18 W · 16 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f19…e819backed Yes | 25c | 199.99$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.99 | 529 | 35.7%189 W · 340 L | +26.7wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +24%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x23ab…1719backed Yes | 54c | 184.74$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.31 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -38.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb616…0086backed Yes | 52c | 148$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.59 | 164 | 34.1%56 W · 108 L | +5.6wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5ea2…e97fbacked Yes | 28c | 124.15$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.15 | 350 | 18%63 W · 287 L | +11.8wins | +0.03per pick | 15cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 41c | 105.54$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.49 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f7…e0dabacked Yes | 28c | 101.85$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.33 | 1,861 | 23.8%443 W · 1,418 L | +47.9wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 26c | 99.99$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8eea…e285backed Yes | 31c | 96.44$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.81 | 410 | 46.8%192 W · 218 L | +57.4wins | +0.14per pick | 33cpaid | +58.9%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x358b…3722backed Yes | 23c | 86$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.87 | 525 | 33.1%174 W · 351 L | +21.7wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc135…a01abacked Yes | 75c | 75$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.05 | 616 | 59.3%365 W · 251 L | +68.7wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +17%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xad13…7ed6backed No | 73c | 69.58$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.81 | 919 | 67%616 W · 303 L | -10.6wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85c0…e01dbacked Yes | 29c | 66.43$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.17 | 1,032 | 24.3%251 W · 781 L | +40.9wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6b4c…efa9backed Yes | 39c | 60.64$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.99 | 122 | 30.3%37 W · 85 L | -11.5wins | -0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7d8d…a96cbacked Yes | 22c | 60$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.8 | 810 | 29.1%236 W · 574 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0a…bb29backed Yes | 23c | 59.1$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.51 | 114 | 25.4%29 W · 85 L | +6.5wins | +0.06per pick | 20cpaid | +25.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x888f…23f5backed Yes | 33c | 55.5$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.41 | 173 | 38.2%66 W · 107 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 42c | 51.51$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.88 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xbf2e…c770backed Yes | 80c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 395 | 41.3%163 W · 232 L | +3.6wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9450…685abacked Yes | 56c | 50$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.1 | 75 | 21.3%16 W · 59 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x59fe…14fdbacked No | 24c | 45$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 572 | 32.9%188 W · 384 L | -104.6wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 31-0.18 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a8…9f68backed Yes | 24c | 44.11$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.37 | 346 | 33.8%117 W · 229 L | +17.3wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3865…fcbebacked No | 77c | 32.47$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1,002 | 60.9%610 W · 392 L | -26.2wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 66c | 31.91$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ca5…9ababacked No | 74c | 30.08$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.17 | 94 | 34%32 W · 62 L | -10.3wins | -0.11per pick | 45cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5ae4…255dbacked No | 72c | 27.59$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 18 | 77.8%14 W · 4 L | +2.0wins | +0.11per pick | 67cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0157…f552backed No | 69c | 19$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.22per pick | 72cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 70c | 14.59$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.21 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 15°C on March 9?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 10°C or below on March 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 11°C on March 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 12°C on March 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 13°C on March 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 14°C on March 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 16°C on March 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 17°C on March 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 18°C or higher on March 9?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.