CS2 · resolved market
Counter-Strike: TDK vs OG - Map 1 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6cdea7a9b0418a3c627d0d61e0ed84de09c1323ef7e3b1f7b7ff4a611d7b7554
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- TDKof TDK, OG
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,954
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,384
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,954 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in CS2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa927…8d9fbacked TDK | 61c | 1,867$1,135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$731.97 | 345 | 59.1%204 W · 141 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed OG | 30c | 1,692$512 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$511.74 | 1,431 | 39%558 W · 873 L | -41.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -29%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x51db…f9b3backed TDK | 70c | 1,205$842 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$362.74 | 6,501 | 42.9%2,791 W · 3,710 L | -79.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca82…fcfebacked TDK | 76c | 877.23$665 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$212.38 | 149 | 71.8%107 W · 42 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked OG | 35c | 872$307 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$306.94 | 7,990 | 50.4%4,029 W · 3,961 L | +180.9wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked TDK | 62c | 784.6$490 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$294.5 | 1,790 | 59.2%1,060 W · 730 L | +106.1wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa27c…ab67backed TDK | 67c | 749.94$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$249.98 | 458 | 59%270 W · 188 L | -6.2wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7069…325bbacked TDK | 50c | 700$350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$350 | 949 | 45.8%435 W · 514 L | +19.7wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4713…4d21backed OG | 31c | 687$213 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$213.26 | 5,341 | 31.3%1,674 W · 3,667 L | -390.7wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8e34…4480backed OG | 41c | 500$205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$205 | 499 | 35.1%175 W · 324 L | -5.7wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6df5…6430backed OG | 16c | 450$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.5 | 1,283 | 22%282 W · 1,001 L | -24.2wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5e…9040backed OG | 40c | 442$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176.05 | 287 | 55.1%158 W · 129 L | +13.9wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked OG | 32c | 429.94$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.58 | 5,580 | 47.2%2,632 W · 2,948 L | +47.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x56d6…4404backed TDK | 62c | 350$216 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134 | 640 | 58.1%372 W · 268 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x83ba…2404backed TDK | 60c | 326.58$196 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.9 | 218 | 56%122 W · 96 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x904e…0becbacked TDK | 65c | 301.47$196 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.05 | 5,034 | 37.2%1,874 W · 3,160 L | -260.4wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6e54…511ebacked OG | 37c | 300$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111 | 399 | 44.1%176 W · 223 L | +7.5wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa5a8…bf60backed TDK | 57c | 265.19$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.19 | 988 | 56.1%554 W · 434 L | +21.8wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd0cc…ce77backed OG | 37c | 262.04$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.95 | 114 | 35.1%40 W · 74 L | -3.0wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0698…b91dbacked OG | 40c | 254.44$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101 | 156 | 37.2%58 W · 98 L | -2.8wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x300b…8e51backed TDK | 66c | 250$165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85 | 417 | 16.5%69 W · 348 L | -12.1wins | -0.03per pick | 19cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e3c…08babacked OG | 39c | 230.5$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.07 | 4,754 | 43.6%2,071 W · 2,683 L | -85.1wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf67d…c986backed OG | 40c | 157.5$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63 | 111 | 33.3%37 W · 74 L | -5.5wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x596a…7a0fbacked OG | 26c | 110$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.6 | 1,281 | 37.8%484 W · 797 L | +5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf655…0813backed TDK | 70c | 107.7$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.7 | 200 | 67%134 W · 66 L | +13.0wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf39a…fe47backed OG | 29c | 105$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.8 | 2,061 | 50.7%1,045 W · 1,016 L | -18.7wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked OG | 31c | 105$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.15 | 2,530 | 34.6%876 W · 1,654 L | -193.6wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x57b2…9da2backed OG | 37c | 102.7$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 338 | 44.4%150 W · 188 L | +10.7wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe8c2…45b2backed OG | 37c | 94$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.78 | 401 | 41.6%167 W · 234 L | -9.4wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffd…7821backed OG | 19c | 76.63$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.29 | 780 | 43.7%341 W · 439 L | -21.5wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcd9d…2269backed OG | 37c | 72.25$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.73 | 158 | 64.6%102 W · 56 L | +15.3wins | +0.10per pick | 55cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x755a…6da6backed OG | 41c | 60.98$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1,046 | 45%471 W · 575 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5fd8…54b3backed TDK | 63c | 58.59$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.66 | 118 | 50%59 W · 59 L | -7.8wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdc3b…d591backed OG | 37c | 50$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.5 | 182 | 33%60 W · 122 L | -22.1wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x26c2…0cdfbacked OG | 30c | 45.9$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.78 | 681 | 47%320 W · 361 L | -11.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x76f1…f655backed OG | 32c | 45$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 917 | 43.7%401 W · 516 L | -35.6wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked OG | 36c | 39.67$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.43 | 3,544 | 29.3%1,037 W · 2,507 L | -289.1wins | -0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -43.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xad0b…99febacked TDK | 69c | 36.35$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.35 | 121 | 62.8%76 W · 45 L | +5.8wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1982…bc7bbacked OG | 50c | 31.22$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.61 | 318 | 45.3%144 W · 174 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbdca…3e35backed TDK | 63c | 20.63$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.63 | 24 | 58.3%14 W · 10 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Counter-Strike: TDK vs OG - Map 1 Winnerthis page
- Counter-Strike: TDK vs OG (BO3) - Thunderpick World Championship European Series #1 PlayoffsTDK won
- Counter-Strike: TDK vs OG - Map 2 WinnerOG won
- Games Total: O/U 2.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.