Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 48-49°F on March 14?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6d24a4b77ba2dd19919b3ae99ca7bce411900391f47262af042927652f2ea978
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,644
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,644 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 24 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd72e…15aabacked Yes | 3c | 510.77$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.06 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 14cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 17c | 507.27$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.46 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x85ed…372fbacked Yes | 13c | 327.48$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.63 | 35 | 40%14 W · 21 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46b3…d3debacked Yes | 6c | 298.34$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.41 | 244 | 14.3%35 W · 209 L | -7.3wins | -0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 13c | 272.31$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.78 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked Yes | 6c | 214.18$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.76 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6036…cc41backed Yes | 27c | 173.48$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.13 | 93 | 33.3%31 W · 62 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad13…7ed6backed No | 77c | 150.43$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.95 | 919 | 67%616 W · 303 L | -10.6wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5264…9a63backed Yes | 21c | 133.31$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.4 | 740 | 23.9%177 W · 563 L | +23.6wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe5a1…3840backed Yes | 10c | 112$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.44 | 1,153 | 27.1%312 W · 841 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7dfa…73acbacked Yes | 21c | 90.98$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.13 | 1,022 | 30.6%313 W · 709 L | +17.2wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe6f7…bfd3backed Yes | 16c | 89.97$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.39 | 194 | 26.3%51 W · 143 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x720a…0a49backed No | 74c | 85.99$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.66 | 118 | 78.8%93 W · 25 L | +9.3wins | +0.08per pick | 71cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x17f3…769bbacked No | 76c | 42.1$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.1 | 26 | 61.5%16 W · 10 L | -2.5wins | -0.10per pick | 71cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x83fe…23d9backed No | 79c | 31$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.51 | 327 | 60.6%198 W · 129 L | -4.4wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea83…7393backed No | 78c | 29$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.38 | 1,445 | 60.1%868 W · 577 L | +5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x997f…000abacked No | 77c | 25.97$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.97 | 145 | 48.3%70 W · 75 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +36.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc0b9…3377backed No | 79c | 25.31$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.31 | 140 | 71.4%100 W · 40 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaaaa…f641backed No | 75c | 21.58$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.39 | 100 | 60%60 W · 40 L | -4.3wins | -0.04per pick | 64cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3b81…b68bbacked No | 80c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 46 | 52.2%24 W · 22 L | -4.7wins | -0.10per pick | 62cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x59b4…78c9backed No | 76c | 19.74$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.74 | 67 | 55.2%37 W · 30 L | -3.9wins | -0.06per pick | 61cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe233…c70bbacked No | 77c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.45 | 549 | 66.7%366 W · 183 L | -27.1wins | -0.05per pick | 72cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xca93…df79backed No | 69c | 14.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.5 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.15per pick | 42cpaid | +22%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa685…c2b3backed No | 73c | 13.7$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.7 | 39 | 53.8%21 W · 18 L | -3.2wins | -0.08per pick | 62cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 48-49°F on March 14?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be 52°F or higher on March 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 38-39°F on March 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 40-41°F on March 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 42-43°F on March 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 44-45°F on March 14?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 46-47°F on March 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 50-51°F on March 14?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.