Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 42-43°F on March 14?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5cd35a2f1c4e505f36dc0cc4a1f76745e3c587555b92ac7544c0f18aaf751294
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,875
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,875 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6dce…4490backed Yes | 6c | 499.86$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.99 | 1,285 | 19.5%250 W · 1,035 L | +44.3wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ba4…0a0bbacked No | 80c | 400$320 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80 | 69 | 50.7%35 W · 34 L | +3.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 76c | 379.86$290 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.63 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x46b3…d3debacked Yes | 20c | 361.49$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.73 | 244 | 14.3%35 W · 209 L | -7.3wins | -0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbc4a…1de1backed Yes | 17c | 356.71$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.16 | 47 | 36.2%17 W · 30 L | +2.3wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +29.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 12c | 317.98$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.53 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb1e3…a50cbacked Yes | 20c | 313.28$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.95 | 214 | 36%77 W · 137 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -14%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf4e2…fb46backed Yes | 16c | 300$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.84 | 167 | 38.9%65 W · 102 L | +7.9wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x28ab…2048backed Yes | 17c | 236.33$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.18 | 135 | 31.9%43 W · 92 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a4…f148backed Yes | 21c | 200.04$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.49 | 1,429 | 34.5%493 W · 936 L | -6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x13e6…c310backed Yes | 9c | 194.04$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.86 | 159 | 11.3%18 W · 141 L | -10.1wins | -0.06per pick | 18cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 11c | 187.73$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.99 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 32c | 174.06$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.92 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfdb5…b3cfbacked Yes | 7c | 159.17$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.68 | 23 | 26.1%6 W · 17 L | -2.7wins | -0.12per pick | 38cpaid | -52.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa37d…b2b4backed Yes | 19c | 145.73$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.37 | 321 | 57.3%184 W · 137 L | +17.4wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe5a1…3840backed Yes | 12c | 112$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.01 | 1,153 | 27.1%312 W · 841 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe85f…14cabacked Yes | 23c | 110.37$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.94 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -1.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4a49…8d1fbacked Yes | 22c | 107.51$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.18 | 82 | 48.8%40 W · 42 L | -3.6wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6372…4a25backed No | 78c | 96.12$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.12 | 410 | 70.5%289 W · 121 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb329…2a8cbacked Yes | 19c | 93.24$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.09 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.11per pick | 24cpaid | -82.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ef3…e35bbacked Yes | 17c | 84$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.36 | 16 | 6.3%1 W · 15 L | -1.9wins | -0.12per pick | 18cpaid | -41%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2205…8089backed No | 69c | 74.29$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.05 | 290 | 56.2%163 W · 127 L | -5.6wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f4…1e34backed No | 72c | 72.13$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.28 | 1,312 | 45%590 W · 722 L | +33.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbf14…5d95backed Yes | 18c | 69.98$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.31 | 346 | 17.9%62 W · 284 L | +14.8wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x444c…d440backed Yes | 24c | 63.79$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.21 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8203…cab2backed Yes | 16c | 62.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +1.6wins | +0.10per pick | 46cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc556…9720backed Yes | 26c | 61.22$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.21 | 255 | 49%125 W · 130 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0bbf…9047backed Yes | 29c | 52.4$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.08 | 21 | 9.5%2 W · 19 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 15cpaid | -69.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x11a4…bba6backed Yes | 33c | 52$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.25 | 122 | 23%28 W · 94 L | -4.7wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x35c4…d144backed No | 71c | 50$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.52 | 1,255 | 62.5%785 W · 470 L | +99.5wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd721…57a7backed Yes | 30c | 49$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.92 | 451 | 27.1%122 W · 329 L | +7.1wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc8f…cf0fbacked Yes | 36c | 41.92$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 86 | 40.7%35 W · 51 L | -9.2wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8b3d…2c18backed No | 77c | 29.24$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.65 | 70 | 65.7%46 W · 24 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea83…7393backed No | 80c | 28$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.6 | 1,445 | 60.1%868 W · 577 L | +5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc0b9…3377backed No | 77c | 25.81$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.83 | 140 | 71.4%100 W · 40 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf4ad…d00bbacked No | 77c | 22$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.07 | 490 | 38.8%190 W · 300 L | +24.4wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdbc0…1843backed No | 68c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.5 | 143 | 72%103 W · 40 L | +6.5wins | +0.05per pick | 67cpaid | +1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 64c | 17.92$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.43 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 42-43°F on March 14?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be 52°F or higher on March 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 38-39°F on March 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 40-41°F on March 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 44-45°F on March 14?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 46-47°F on March 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 48-49°F on March 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 50-51°F on March 14?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.