Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 46-47°F on March 14?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x78128411fdd73ce9f44c82a47bf4c5a00bf7802639ec64db59e3f425d3b03e1a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,691
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,691 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 80 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 8c | 711.82$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.51 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb1e3…a50cbacked Yes | 19c | 486.73$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.26 | 214 | 36%77 W · 137 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -14%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 36c | 423.5$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd8a…edf9backed Yes | 37c | 382.57$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.88 | 76 | 38.2%29 W · 47 L | -8.0wins | -0.11per pick | 49cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes | 13c | 333.59$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.44 | 1,544 | 16.3%252 W · 1,292 L | +21.9wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 5c | 309$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.66 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 65c | 231.56$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.12 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf37…993fbacked Yes | 25c | 223.31$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.59 | 656 | 25.8%169 W · 487 L | -13.2wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe6f7…bfd3backed Yes | 45c | 203.19$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.49 | 194 | 26.3%51 W · 143 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3681…4e48backed No | 69c | 195.82$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.92 | 1,375 | 56%770 W · 605 L | +25.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6036…cc41backed Yes | 41c | 194.43$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.29 | 93 | 33.3%31 W · 62 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 36c | 174.99$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.1 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe85f…14cabacked Yes | 16c | 151.51$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.24 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -1.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f8…f4cbbacked Yes | 12c | 144.77$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.28 | 812 | 34.1%277 W · 535 L | +56.9wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b7…9f11backed Yes | 42c | 135.54$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.93 | 38 | 28.9%11 W · 27 L | -5.6wins | -0.15per pick | 44cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xad13…7ed6backed No | 62c | 133.09$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.09 | 919 | 67%616 W · 303 L | -10.6wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe34…8ee7backed No | 60c | 133$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.2 | 163 | 55.2%90 W · 73 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 28c | 133$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.46 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 72c | 127.87$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.51 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked Yes | 29c | 123.51$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.74 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb329…2a8cbacked Yes | 16c | 119.65$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.73 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.11per pick | 24cpaid | -82.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 68c | 115.88$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.05 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x66a1…3de8backed Yes | 17c | 112.31$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.32 | 685 | 21.5%147 W · 538 L | +12.8wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe5a1…3840backed Yes | 33c | 112$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.77 | 1,153 | 27.1%312 W · 841 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3188…9287backed Yes | 20c | 109.96$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.47 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -63%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a42…8da8backed No | 56c | 105.93$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.08 | 388 | 40.7%158 W · 230 L | -14.9wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2079…ca17backed Yes | 38c | 101.38$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.74 | 96 | 26%25 W · 71 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7dfa…73acbacked Yes | 40c | 98.53$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.92 | 1,022 | 30.6%313 W · 709 L | +17.2wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 13c | 91.25$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.69 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b59…f71cbacked Yes | 35c | 85.96$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 112 | 33.9%38 W · 74 L | -7.7wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed Yes | 26c | 83.73$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.14 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x83fe…23d9backed No | 70c | 76$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.65 | 327 | 60.6%198 W · 129 L | -4.4wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8fc…88e1backed Yes | 34c | 74.82$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.64 | 1,298 | 33.1%430 W · 868 L | +39.5wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e8a…ad94backed Yes | 33c | 72$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.51 | 331 | 39.6%131 W · 200 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4156…997ebacked Yes | 34c | 71.61$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 86 | 36%31 W · 55 L | +2.8wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3c69…4622backed No | 58c | 70$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.4 | 562 | 65.5%368 W · 194 L | +35.2wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5504…665dbacked No | 56c | 61$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.84 | 100 | 55%55 W · 45 L | -4.3wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x55e0…31bcbacked Yes | 47c | 60.57$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.39 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad62…2aa9backed Yes | 17c | 60.53$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.58 | 165 | 32.7%54 W · 111 L | +5.7wins | +0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa7a…4d23backed Yes | 27c | 57.86$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.36 | 987 | 38.1%376 W · 611 L | +80.8wins | +0.08per pick | 30cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x24fe…3419backed Yes | 27c | 57.82$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.81 | 212 | 35.8%76 W · 136 L | +10.4wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 34c | 55.94$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.03 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe649…4e37backed Yes | 28c | 54.02$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 135 | 23%31 W · 104 L | -4.1wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 32c | 53.88$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.42 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x17f3…769bbacked No | 60c | 52.89$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.16 | 26 | 61.5%16 W · 10 L | -2.5wins | -0.10per pick | 71cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7c3d…238cbacked Yes | 40c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.82 | 24 | 16.7%4 W · 20 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | +30.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x47af…3999backed No | 65c | 48.97$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.35 | 326 | 52.1%170 W · 156 L | +7.6wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf3ac…f23dbacked Yes | 28c | 47.3$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.05 | 335 | 35.2%118 W · 217 L | +5.8wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 24c | 46.56$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.13 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xade1…9040backed Yes | 32c | 41.14$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.3 | 338 | 39.9%135 W · 203 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4b6a…8f52backed No | 66c | 40.75$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.71 | 39 | 56.4%22 W · 17 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3ec0…ae7dbacked Yes | 50c | 39.61$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 25 | 8%2 W · 23 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 13cpaid | -55.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6327…757cbacked No | 57c | 39.4$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.76 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +62.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3865…fcbebacked No | 63c | 39.38$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.39 | 1,002 | 60.9%610 W · 392 L | -26.2wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x45c9…a3d1backed No | 74c | 39.14$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.02 | 275 | 60%165 W · 110 L | +7.9wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5368…2d62backed No | 48c | 38.46$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 1,804 | 27.4%494 W · 1,310 L | +27.6wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x65c4…7ea4backed Yes | 52c | 38.46$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 559 | 42.6%238 W · 321 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e83…5d73backed Yes | 31c | 38.21$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 46 | 37%17 W · 29 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa303…5ba1backed No | 58c | 37.19$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.65 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -3.0wins | -0.27per pick | 63cpaid | -46.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8f8d…38a3backed No | 56c | 36.88$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.22 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +78.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc0b9…3377backed No | 55c | 36.36$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.36 | 140 | 71.4%100 W · 40 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc474…d697backed Yes | 28c | 35.9$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.07 | 18 | 16.7%3 W · 15 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -52.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x357f…b6c5backed Yes | 44c | 35$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.4 | 31 | 35.5%11 W · 20 L | -3.9wins | -0.13per pick | 48cpaid | -33.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf1fb…0255backed No | 54c | 34.81$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.01 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.12per pick | 46cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaaaa…f641backed No | 62c | 32.83$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.48 | 100 | 60%60 W · 40 L | -4.3wins | -0.04per pick | 64cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaf60…79c5backed Yes | 48c | 32$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.36 | 64 | 45.3%29 W · 35 L | +2.7wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0e09…4fd4backed No | 69c | 31.88$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.88 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdf40…38b8backed No | 72c | 31.87$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.92 | 583 | 49.4%288 W · 295 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa37d…b2b4backed No | 78c | 31.11$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.9 | 321 | 57.3%184 W · 137 L | +17.4wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x997f…000abacked No | 64c | 31$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.16 | 145 | 48.3%70 W · 75 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +36.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc6c8…d7c5backed No | 67c | 29.84$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.85 | 241 | 49.8%120 W · 121 L | -10.5wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8ef3…ac46backed No | 69c | 29.01$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.01 | 194 | 49%95 W · 99 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ced…7ce8backed No | 60c | 26.1$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.44 | 137 | 48.2%66 W · 71 L | +3.7wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3b69…3173backed No | 59c | 26.08$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.74 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +1.5wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x639f…bbb6backed No | 54c | 25.59$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.77 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.21per pick | 29cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca93…df79backed No | 57c | 22.76$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.79 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.15per pick | 42cpaid | +22%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7591…4e68backed Yes | 46c | 21.98$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.11 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.6wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 61c | 21.91$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.56 | 860 | 50.9%438 W · 422 L | +29.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc4b9…b47fbacked No | 72c | 17$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.76 | 80 | 48.8%39 W · 41 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x368c…e8d5backed No | 68c | 14.85$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.71 | 62 | 43.5%27 W · 35 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 46-47°F on March 14?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be 52°F or higher on March 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 38-39°F on March 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 40-41°F on March 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 42-43°F on March 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 44-45°F on March 14?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 48-49°F on March 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 50-51°F on March 14?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.