Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 44-45°F on March 14?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb837b205f73318a40f7702490baeb26914d213a259356a1ed39212b5e7253cfe
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,255
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,255 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 76 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed No | 5c | 1,446$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.34 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa37d…b2b4backed Yes | 57c | 644.64$368 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$276.72 | 321 | 57.3%184 W · 137 L | +17.4wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1c78…42e6backed No | 12c | 489.99$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 597 | 42%251 W · 346 L | +96.8wins | +0.16per pick | 26cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 67+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 33c | 345.81$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$230.24 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b59…f71cbacked Yes | 55c | 343.85$189 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154.67 | 112 | 33.9%38 W · 74 L | -7.7wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 78c | 309$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.58 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb1e3…a50cbacked Yes | 49c | 306.39$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.72 | 214 | 36%77 W · 137 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -14%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf4e2…fb46backed Yes | 48c | 305.93$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159.41 | 167 | 38.9%65 W · 102 L | +7.9wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 32c | 211.28$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.79 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6f7…bfd3backed Yes | 25c | 203.04$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152.95 | 194 | 26.3%51 W · 143 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 6c | 199.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.96 | 860 | 50.9%438 W · 422 L | +29.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdf40…38b8backed No | 22c | 195.49$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.46 | 583 | 49.4%288 W · 295 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 34c | 157.71$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.93 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 55c | 150.48$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.14 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 56c | 138.55$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.25 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf3ac…f23dbacked Yes | 40c | 137.5$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.87 | 335 | 35.2%118 W · 217 L | +5.8wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 79c | 126.56$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.99 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf37…993fbacked No | 35c | 125.85$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.49 | 656 | 25.8%169 W · 487 L | -13.2wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x83fe…23d9backed No | 65c | 122.99$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.92 | 327 | 60.6%198 W · 129 L | -4.4wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x11dc…fac5backed No | 50c | 120$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 34 | 35.3%12 W · 22 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe5a1…3840backed Yes | 32c | 112$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.25 | 1,153 | 27.1%312 W · 841 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 68c | 108.49$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.53 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28ab…2048backed No | 70c | 107.37$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.16 | 135 | 31.9%43 W · 92 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd9fc…938bbacked Yes | 25c | 100$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.51 | 29 | 41.4%12 W · 17 L | +3.7wins | +0.13per pick | 29cpaid | +34.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed No | 15c | 99.58$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.69 | 540 | 37.4%202 W · 338 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e09…4fd4backed Yes | 35c | 92.07$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.07 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7dfa…73acbacked Yes | 20c | 86.96$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.21 | 1,022 | 30.6%313 W · 709 L | +17.2wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 29c | 83.01$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.66 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x7a42…8da8backed No | 74c | 81.33$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.22 | 388 | 40.7%158 W · 230 L | -14.9wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xad13…7ed6backed No | 72c | 77.04$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.41 | 919 | 67%616 W · 303 L | -10.6wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked No | 59c | 75.39$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.33 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 53c | 73.44$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.64 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4ba5…dc25backed Yes | 43c | 69.89$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.14 | 26 | 57.7%15 W · 11 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed No | 40c | 66.91$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.6 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad62…2aa9backed Yes | 59c | 63.04$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.04 | 165 | 32.7%54 W · 111 L | +5.7wins | +0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4bcb…634fbacked Yes | 22c | 60$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.08 | 215 | 47.4%102 W · 113 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc18…0a2abacked No | 57c | 56.33$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.11 | 21 | 66.7%14 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ced…7ce8backed Yes | 21c | 51.04$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.32 | 137 | 48.2%66 W · 71 L | +3.7wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d8e…5d6abacked Yes | 37c | 50$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.5 | 95 | 20%19 W · 76 L | -3.4wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf1fb…0255backed No | 73c | 50$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.5 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.12per pick | 46cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf51b…ca1bbacked No | 31c | 49.97$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.49 | 1,275 | 34%433 W · 842 L | +46.2wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaaaa…f641backed No | 67c | 47.87$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.85 | 100 | 60%60 W · 40 L | -4.3wins | -0.04per pick | 64cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x59fe…14fdbacked No | 35c | 47.59$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.49 | 572 | 32.9%188 W · 384 L | -104.6wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 31-0.18 edge/pick |
| 0x4b40…96e3backed No | 74c | 47$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.78 | 522 | 45%235 W · 287 L | -13.2wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd0c8…e944backed No | 23c | 46.32$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.57 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -2.1wins | -0.11per pick | 42cpaid | -34%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8506…2a45backed Yes | 35c | 40.03$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.03 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | +1.9wins | +0.07per pick | 34cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x53a0…1907backed Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 73 | 9.6%7 W · 66 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 13cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d8d…a96cbacked Yes | 30c | 40$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.1 | 810 | 29.1%236 W · 574 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 46c | 38.43$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.65 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xade1…9040backed Yes | 45c | 38.06$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.06 | 338 | 39.9%135 W · 203 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x11a4…bba6backed No | 45c | 38$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.1 | 122 | 23%28 W · 94 L | -4.7wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 50c | 36.28$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e4…eec0backed Yes | 46c | 32.61$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.61 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x66a1…3de8backed No | 34c | 32.48$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.88 | 685 | 21.5%147 W · 538 L | +12.8wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3865…fcbebacked No | 78c | 32.21$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1,002 | 60.9%610 W · 392 L | -26.2wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x279e…5994backed Yes | 47c | 31.91$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.91 | 34 | 44.1%15 W · 19 L | +1.8wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4a49…8d1fbacked No | 60c | 31.67$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.98 | 82 | 48.8%40 W · 42 L | -3.6wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbc63…6255backed Yes | 58c | 30.26$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.76 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | -56.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7bd5…4390backed Yes | 48c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.72 | 66 | 60.6%40 W · 26 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4bdf…41dfbacked No | 38c | 28.75$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.06 | 43 | 44.2%19 W · 24 L | -5.1wins | -0.12per pick | 56cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc0b9…3377backed No | 76c | 26.49$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.13 | 140 | 71.4%100 W · 40 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e3e…522abacked No | 57c | 26$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.7 | 102 | 37.3%38 W · 64 L | -5.2wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x79b6…e042backed No | 48c | 25.33$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.27 | 445 | 53.3%237 W · 208 L | -21.2wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd082…b5e8backed Yes | 62c | 24.32$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.32 | 55 | 56.4%31 W · 24 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 71c | 23.84$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.93 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f7…fd31backed No | 46c | 22.86$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.51 | 125 | 35.2%44 W · 81 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -30.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e83…5d73backed Yes | 68c | 22.17$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.17 | 46 | 37%17 W · 29 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x131d…2a50backed No | 75c | 22.07$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.61 | 103 | 35.9%37 W · 66 L | -15.3wins | -0.15per pick | 51cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xe1d2…0ecfbacked Yes | 50c | 20.64$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.39 | 205 | 46.8%96 W · 109 L | +9.1wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe7…89edbacked Yes | 63c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.5 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3827…5455backed Yes | 67c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 53 | 56.6%30 W · 23 L | +6.0wins | +0.11per pick | 45cpaid | +44.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe9da…ed70backed No | 80c | 18.89$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.11 | 763 | 71.4%545 W · 218 L | +11.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb701…1994backed No | 64c | 18.05$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.55 | 59 | 59.3%35 W · 24 L | +4.2wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xea83…7393backed No | 78c | 13$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.14 | 1,445 | 60.1%868 W · 577 L | +5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb2de…8209backed No | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 31 | 71%22 W · 9 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 72cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 44-45°F on March 14?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be 52°F or higher on March 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 38-39°F on March 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 40-41°F on March 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 42-43°F on March 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 46-47°F on March 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 48-49°F on March 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 50-51°F on March 14?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.