NFL · resolved market
Big Game: First TD Scorer Jersey Number O/U 19.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6d4ef27ac343e96687f4721885960dcfe40dfcf707dc464e7f7a4aae2e82562d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,236
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,815
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,236 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 23 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd6ce…7ec8backed Under | 51c | 536.08$271 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$270.93 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -2.9wins | -0.15per pick | 42cpaid | -57.2%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x98e1…cdcdbacked Over | 50c | 500$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$250.14 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4d0e…407abacked Over | 49c | 469.28$230 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$239.28 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -1.2wins | -0.12per pick | 32cpaid | -59.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9998…e858backed Under | 19c | 317.99$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.01 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | +2.1wins | +0.11per pick | 31cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x41f9…84e6backed Over | 44c | 199.97$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.95 | 49 | 55.1%27 W · 22 L | +5.0wins | +0.10per pick | 45cpaid | +10%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0138…8451backed Under | 62c | 130$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.5 | 65 | 21.5%14 W · 51 L | -9.5wins | -0.15per pick | 36cpaid | -57.7%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Over | 25c | 79.13$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.39 | 567 | 9.9%56 W · 511 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -39.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9e15…7531backed Under | 50c | 75.27$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.64 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a6c…428ebacked Under | 74c | 73.92$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.5wins | -0.15per pick | 45cpaid | +33.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe542…0a37backed Over | 75c | 71.13$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.98 | 212 | 27.8%59 W · 153 L | +10.6wins | +0.05per pick | 23cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf7af…bbf1backed Over | 35c | 58.87$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.51 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2054…d6f5backed Over | 35c | 57.42$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.42 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -2.2wins | -0.16per pick | 37cpaid | -49.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbc9a…d427backed Under | 71c | 49.99$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.49 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -2.0wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc676…f35cbacked Under | 50c | 48.03$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.02 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f5b…a891backed Under | 50c | 39$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +2.5wins | +0.15per pick | 41cpaid | +45%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x623a…eddabacked Over | 40c | 35$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f55…580cbacked Under | 58c | 34.57$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -1.7wins | -0.08per pick | 46cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6424…3045backed Under | 59c | 34$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.06 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf856…c78ebacked Under | 65c | 30.77$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.65per pick | 65cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf66…e823backed Under | 56c | 30.41$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.88 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -1.5wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc9fd…26f8backed Under | 74c | 28.38$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | -3.6wins | -0.27per pick | 35cpaid | -89.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x180b…c669backed Over | 39c | 25.42$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.42 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.8wins | +0.37per pick | 43cpaid | +66.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6a07…be22backed Under | 64c | 17$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.88 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.