Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs OG - Game 1 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6d723b74470ab6555c48b6590f96f228e955e2229881a32f8a0bb04d7e6112b5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- OGof Team Yandex, OG
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,451
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $25,001
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,451 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3a7a…15a4backed Team Yandex | 64c | 3,898$2,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,500 | 55 | 41.8%23 W · 32 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0424…95ddbacked Team Yandex | 55c | 1,721$946 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$946.43 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3db3…932fbacked Team Yandex | 59c | 1,686$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 161 | 49.7%80 W · 81 L | -4.7wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4572…83ffbacked OG | 47c | 1,604$750 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$854.31 | 534 | 51.7%276 W · 258 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0659…d74dbacked OG | 36c | 1,398$508 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$889.86 | 858 | 51.3%440 W · 418 L | +30.8wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked OG | 38c | 1,357$512 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$845.14 | 738 | 41.7%308 W · 430 L | -5.2wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb6ce…7a7dbacked OG | 50c | 1,288$639 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$648.46 | 897 | 49.6%445 W · 452 L | +22.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec98…afcdbacked OG | 35c | 1,000$350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$650 | 1,821 | 45%820 W · 1,001 L | +33.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked OG | 40c | 963.07$390 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$573.24 | 2,012 | 44.2%889 W · 1,123 L | +36.6wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x64c2…d0afbacked Team Yandex | 59c | 748$438 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$438.12 | 26 | 57.7%15 W · 11 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd903…bf9dbacked OG | 41c | 669.65$275 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$394.54 | 103 | 38.8%40 W · 63 L | +3.0wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x72aa…90e0backed OG | 45c | 580.14$259 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$320.86 | 628 | 41.1%258 W · 370 L | -17.8wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1448…9b9cbacked Team Yandex | 56c | 357.14$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 132 | 62.9%83 W · 49 L | +4.0wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x31b5…6128backed Team Yandex | 18c | 324$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.32 | 180 | 75%135 W · 45 L | +18.8wins | +0.10per pick | 65cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xefb9…e74fbacked Team Yandex | 48c | 240.88$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.62 | 29 | 48.3%14 W · 15 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7032…0a8bbacked Team Yandex | 59c | 180.51$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106 | 552 | 51.6%285 W · 267 L | +10.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a78…add7backed OG | 43c | 160$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.2 | 364 | 42.3%154 W · 210 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3cf3…50d9backed OG | 45c | 155.56$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.56 | 79 | 36.7%29 W · 50 L | -7.1wins | -0.09per pick | 46cpaid | -20%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x558c…ca77backed Team Yandex | 58c | 129.88$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 29 | 58.6%17 W · 12 L | -1.9wins | -0.07per pick | 65cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x073a…6f98backed OG | 42c | 113$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.11 | 203 | 61.6%125 W · 78 L | +22.0wins | +0.11per pick | 51cpaid | +12%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x8046…a845backed OG | 45c | 60$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.2 | 59 | 50.8%30 W · 29 L | +3.5wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7e79…089bbacked OG | 46c | 58.8$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.75 | 30 | 53.3%16 W · 14 L | +2.8wins | +0.09per pick | 44cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc4b2…4ab2backed Team Yandex | 53c | 50$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.5 | 282 | 44%124 W · 158 L | -5.1wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb569…5695backed Team Yandex | 62c | 25$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 190 | 47.9%91 W · 99 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd161…4cc1backed Team Yandex | 53c | 22.77$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.07 | 804 | 43.9%353 W · 451 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -11%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd020…6394backed Team Yandex | 52c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -2.1wins | -0.21per pick | 31cpaid | -75.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: Team Yandex vs OG - Game 1 Winnerthis page
- Dota 2: Team Yandex vs OG (BO3)OG won
- Games Total: O/U 2.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.