Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 23°C on April 24?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6da43f3d6e2fed336a99d61b0966ab985c9a0c0b54da79e1e3b579abb1cecddd
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,084
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,645
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,084 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 11c | 207.06$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.34 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 23c | 202.21$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.43 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xed34…2309backed Yes | 33c | 198.21$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.31 | 83 | 36.1%30 W · 53 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -29.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x162e…fe52backed No | 76c | 172.77$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.97 | 40 | 37.5%15 W · 25 L | -6.8wins | -0.17per pick | 54cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 38-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x5aa1…e423backed Yes | 30c | 164.55$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.17 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -1.4wins | -0.08per pick | 26cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd229…fcd6backed Yes | 16c | 150$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 1,242 | 16.7%207 W · 1,035 L | -22.0wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x354d…eb8fbacked Yes | 16c | 132.48$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.6 | 701 | 33.5%235 W · 466 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 27c | 128.47$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.38 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01a6…59b0backed No | 73c | 91.69$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.49 | 1,679 | 61.7%1,036 W · 643 L | +6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x98e9…8dbebacked No | 72c | 86.64$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.26 | 134 | 30.6%41 W · 93 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 74c | 83.69$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.82 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc09…467fbacked No | 76c | 72.93$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.24 | 69 | 49.3%34 W · 35 L | +3.0wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4179…cceebacked No | 70c | 70.36$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.3 | 429 | 76.5%328 W · 101 L | +4.5wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 25c | 62.03$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.68 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x5127…6f96backed No | 66c | 61.85$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.03 | 123 | 74%91 W · 32 L | +6.4wins | +0.05per pick | 69cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbb0d…7839backed Yes | 32c | 60$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 40 | 32.5%13 W · 27 L | -2.6wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc80f…6147backed Yes | 26c | 57.64$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.1 | 525 | 33.7%177 W · 348 L | +22.8wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +32%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 71c | 57.37$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.86 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbe99…9ca7backed Yes | 25c | 51$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.75 | 669 | 26.2%175 W · 494 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbf33…5d4fbacked Yes | 25c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 34 | 32.4%11 W · 23 L | -4.0wins | -0.12per pick | 44cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f7…e0dabacked Yes | 28c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 1,861 | 23.8%443 W · 1,418 L | +47.9wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xce07…5c3cbacked No | 74c | 48.69$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.74 | 310 | 62.6%194 W · 116 L | +38.4wins | +0.12per pick | 50cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x4ec1…07a5backed No | 68c | 43.65$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.97 | 247 | 68.4%169 W · 78 L | +12.8wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xef2e…10c3backed Yes | 34c | 41.1$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.97 | 402 | 42.5%171 W · 231 L | -12.4wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x98e9…2ea5backed No | 63c | 39.68$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.68 | 178 | 55.6%99 W · 79 L | +4.8wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe8e6…aa6cbacked No | 70c | 34.84$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.6 | 119 | 77.3%92 W · 27 L | +4.9wins | +0.04per pick | 73cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd65…c0b1backed No | 77c | 29.31$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.74 | 91 | 62.6%57 W · 34 L | +3.7wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9ce7…5e55backed No | 74c | 28.73$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.41 | 12 | 83.3%10 W · 2 L | +2.6wins | +0.21per pick | 62cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 68c | 28$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.96 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29f2…5ac2backed No | 73c | 26.64$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.18 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe217…5c75backed No | 77c | 26.49$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.09 | 160 | 30%48 W · 112 L | -15.2wins | -0.09per pick | 39cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd670…1e02backed No | 77c | 26.49$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.09 | 222 | 65.8%146 W · 76 L | -4.4wins | -0.02per pick | 68cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x86f1…1f53backed No | 67c | 20.59$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.79 | 27 | 22.2%6 W · 21 L | -3.1wins | -0.11per pick | 34cpaid | -64.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1098…10a7backed No | 68c | 20.21$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.47 | 417 | 33.8%141 W · 276 L | -17.0wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd50c…2007backed No | 75c | 19.5$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.87 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc35…172ebacked No | 78c | 19.31$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.33 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3334…69b0backed No | 63c | 17.33$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.47 | 464 | 44.4%206 W · 258 L | -18.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x62fa…187dbacked No | 78c | 14.48$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.19 | 46 | 34.8%16 W · 30 L | -3.2wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 74c | 14.34$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.73 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 23°C on April 24?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 21°C on April 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 22°C on April 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 24°C on April 24?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 25°C on April 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 26°C or higher on April 24?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.