Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 25°C on April 24?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd7d453f6e7309a53a0bb2cbe704a4b583441d8d0950cb2d31b0bd9da9e9817f9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,454
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,859
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,454 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6ca1…17e5backed Yes | 6c | 500$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 153 | 28.1%43 W · 110 L | +10.0wins | +0.07per pick | 22cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaf17…5c20backed Yes | 18c | 267.31$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.26 | 1,787 | 25.7%460 W · 1,327 L | +132.5wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7b20…bc23backed No | 78c | 255.34$199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.69 | 811 | 65.8%534 W · 277 L | -37.1wins | -0.05per pick | 70cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6d58…17a9backed Yes | 20c | 247.94$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.73 | 165 | 30.9%51 W · 114 L | +10.0wins | +0.06per pick | 25cpaid | +31.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 24c | 209.27$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.07 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe73c…dd15backed Yes | 9c | 173.09$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.35 | 37 | 8.1%3 W · 34 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -55.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x98e9…8dbebacked Yes | 35c | 155.89$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.27 | 134 | 30.6%41 W · 93 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 23c | 146.07$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.26 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x354d…eb8fbacked Yes | 23c | 129.08$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.7 | 701 | 33.5%235 W · 466 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5aa1…e423backed Yes | 35c | 116.41$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.33 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -1.4wins | -0.08per pick | 26cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe752…2200backed Yes | 23c | 94.25$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.77 | 1,204 | 25.3%305 W · 899 L | +18.2wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed Yes | 11c | 92.88$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.03 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x85e8…9301backed Yes | 42c | 92.3$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.89 | 113 | 62.8%71 W · 42 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0175…4264backed No | 53c | 84.91$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.18 | 97 | 53.6%52 W · 45 L | -12.2wins | -0.13per pick | 66cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x4087…9678backed No | 53c | 84.69$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.85 | 95 | 53.7%51 W · 44 L | -12.1wins | -0.13per pick | 66cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x2f40…887cbacked Yes | 20c | 75.61$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.97 | 56 | 14.3%8 W · 48 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc80f…6147backed Yes | 26c | 72.29$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.03 | 525 | 33.7%177 W · 348 L | +22.8wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +32%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8cf0…ab54backed Yes | 20c | 70$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 163 | 20.2%33 W · 130 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x87f0…85f7backed Yes | 22c | 65.26$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.34 | 67 | 17.9%12 W · 55 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 21cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4179…cceebacked No | 73c | 64.84$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.74 | 429 | 76.5%328 W · 101 L | +4.5wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbcce…65afbacked No | 72c | 60.18$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.83 | 277 | 71.5%198 W · 79 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb0d…7839backed Yes | 18c | 60$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.56 | 40 | 32.5%13 W · 27 L | -2.6wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked No | 70c | 54.09$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.13 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed34…2309backed Yes | 23c | 49.03$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.46 | 83 | 36.1%30 W · 53 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -29.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb185…48c1backed Yes | 26c | 46.32$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.22 | 197 | 20.8%41 W · 156 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x170b…4737backed Yes | 47c | 40$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.84 | 809 | 57.6%466 W · 343 L | -19.4wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc120…a7e3backed No | 75c | 39$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.77 | 1,299 | 54.1%703 W · 596 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75f3…fe29backed No | 80c | 35.96$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.32 | 521 | 55.3%288 W · 233 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x09a8…aff0backed No | 70c | 35$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 149 | 44.3%66 W · 83 L | -4.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe744…67a8backed No | 75c | 34.53$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.63 | 154 | 77.9%120 W · 34 L | +3.7wins | +0.02per pick | 75cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e5e…40fbbacked No | 76c | 33$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.92 | 335 | 61.5%206 W · 129 L | -22.2wins | -0.07per pick | 68cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 70c | 28.38$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.63 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 75c | 28$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 76c | 24.39$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.91 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked No | 79c | 22.31$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.63 | 1,313 | 76.1%999 W · 314 L | +20.9wins | +0.02per pick | 74cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b28…e3c6backed No | 66c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.81 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -2.6wins | -0.20per pick | 51cpaid | -40.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 25°C on April 24?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 21°C on April 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 22°C on April 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 23°C on April 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 24°C on April 24?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 26°C or higher on April 24?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.